FIP-xFIP Gap Report

Pitchers whose FIP is running above xFIP, a matter-of-fact view of HR over-allowance as of the selected slate date.

Date Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report

Historical Snapshot

Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.

refresh_11 - 2026-07-05T11:00:40-04:00

FIP-xFIP Gap Leaderboard · 2026-07-05

Higher gap = more HR-prone than expected · trend compares to 7 days earlier

#	Pitcher	7d Rank	FIP	xFIP	Gap	Gap +/-	Scored Pool HRs	Scored Pool HR Rate	Pool Apps
1	Dean Kremer	EVEN	6.49	1.82	+4.68	-1.47	3	17.6%	17
2	Shane Bieber	NEW	8.93	5.40	+3.53	·	3	37.5%	8
3	Steven Cruz	-1	6.76	3.66	+3.10	+0.00	4	57.1%	7
4	Luis Gil	-1	8.34	5.57	+2.76	+0.00	3	11.1%	27
5	Kyle Backhus	-1	4.79	2.13	+2.66	+0.00	1	11.1%	9
6	Zack Littell	-1	7.55	5.36	+2.19	+0.00	20	16.7%	120
7	Taijuan Walker	-1	6.50	4.37	+2.12	+0.00	4	22.2%	18
8	Max Scherzer	-1	7.90	5.82	+2.09	+0.00	10	22.7%	44
9	Nick Lodolo	-1	7.12	5.19	+1.93	-0.15	7	10.9%	64
10	Brayan Bello	EVEN	6.57	4.79	+1.78	+0.00	12	16.9%	71
11	Ryan Weiss	EVEN	5.94	4.16	+1.77	+0.00	2	11.1%	18
12	Germán Márquez	+1	6.47	4.76	+1.71	+0.00	6	11.1%	54
13	Mitch Spence	+1	8.65	6.96	+1.69	+0.00	1	12.5%	8
14	Miles Mikolas	-5	6.41	4.73	+1.68	-0.13	6	8.7%	69
15	Jared Jones	-3	5.36	3.75	+1.61	-0.11	7	14.3%	49
16	Cole Ragans	-1	6.20	4.67	+1.54	+0.00	11	15.5%	71
17	Jameson Taillon	-1	6.15	4.62	+1.53	+0.00	16	13.9%	115
18	JR Ritchie	EVEN	5.86	4.40	+1.45	+0.00	8	16.3%	49
19	Tyler Mahle	-2	5.38	3.98	+1.40	-0.06	10	10.4%	96
20	Kodai Senga	-1	5.72	4.33	+1.39	+0.00	9	11.4%	79
21	Brady Singer	EVEN	5.75	4.40	+1.35	+0.02	25	18.5%	135
22	Griffin Jax	-2	5.56	4.23	+1.33	-0.03	10	10.2%	98
23	David Sandlin	EVEN	7.27	5.94	+1.32	+0.00	3	12.0%	25
24	Merrill Kelly	EVEN	6.81	5.50	+1.31	+0.00	15	13.8%	109
25	Brandon Sproat	-3	5.93	4.63	+1.30	-0.02	19	13.6%	140
26	Nathan Eovaldi	-1	4.72	3.48	+1.24	-0.04	16	10.9%	147
27	Roki Sasaki	-1	5.94	4.73	+1.21	-0.02	12	10.9%	110
28	Blake Snell	EVEN	4.77	3.57	+1.20	+0.00	0	0.0%	18
29	Trey Gibson	EVEN	6.20	5.05	+1.15	+0.00	8	18.6%	43
30	Griffin Canning	EVEN	5.10	3.96	+1.14	+0.02	8	10.1%	79
31	Eric Lauer	EVEN	6.53	5.45	+1.08	-0.02	14	14.7%	95
32	Garrett Crochet	EVEN	4.81	3.75	+1.06	+0.00	3	5.7%	53
33	Tyler Holton	EVEN	5.82	4.81	+1.01	+0.00	0	0.0%	9
34	Matt Waldron	EVEN	6.49	5.52	+0.98	+0.00	6	13.3%	45
35	Ryan Johnson	-8	6.30	5.32	+0.97	-0.26	4	11.8%	34
36	Kyle Freeland	-1	5.26	4.33	+0.92	-0.01	12	9.4%	127
37	Matthew Liberatore	-1	5.35	4.48	+0.86	+0.01	15	11.6%	129
38	Ryan Weathers	-1	3.80	2.95	+0.84	+0.01	14	10.1%	138
39	Mike Burrows	EVEN	5.15	4.33	+0.82	+0.01	21	15.4%	136
40	Cionel Pérez	EVEN	4.67	3.86	+0.81	+0.00	1	12.5%	8
41	Emmet Sheehan	EVEN	4.28	3.48	+0.80	+0.00	21	18.8%	112
42	Aaron Nola	EVEN	4.44	3.64	+0.80	+0.02	17	12.6%	135
43	Tatsuya Imai	-5	5.46	4.66	+0.80	-0.03	9	11.8%	76
44	Gavin Williams	EVEN	4.02	3.25	+0.77	+0.00	14	8.5%	164
45	Michael Lorenzen	-2	5.07	4.31	+0.77	-0.01	13	8.6%	151
46	Jose Cabrera	NEW	5.31	4.56	+0.75	·	1	12.5%	8
47	Tomoyuki Sugano	EVEN	5.27	4.62	+0.65	+0.00	17	12.2%	139
48	Kyle Leahy	-3	5.03	4.38	+0.65	-0.04	16	10.4%	154
49	Ryan Feltner	-3	5.12	4.49	+0.63	-0.04	13	12.3%	106
50	Chris Paddack	-1	4.71	4.09	+0.62	+0.00	10	11.2%	89

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How to use this: FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) measures what a pitcher's ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs. xFIP goes further by normalizing HR/FB rate to league average. When FIP is much higher than xFIP (positive gap), the pitcher is giving up more home runs than expected. Use the dated view to inspect what was knowable at that point, without leaking future results into older reports.

See the full FIP-xFIP gap board

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