12
HRs allowed
16.9%
HR rate (pool)
21.6%
Overall HR/FB
6.57
FIP
4.79
xFIP
+1.78
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
90
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 90th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
75.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.0 EV · 395 ft
max EV allowed 112.4
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Brayan Bello.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
41.7%
86.5
6.4°
2
+0.1
Changeup Offspeed
18.2%
81.2
5.6°
1
-0.2
Cutter Hard
15.4%
82.7
1.4°
5
+2.9
Sweeper Breaking
12.7%
80.5
7.6°
0
-1.9
Fastball Hard
6.1%
89.0
17.7°
1
+8.5
Curveball Breaking
5.8%
88.4
23.6°
2
+2.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups71
HRs allowed (pool)12
Pool HR rate16.9%
Pool HR/game day1.5
Top-15 matchups2
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB21.6% 90
HR/9—
FIP6.57 97
xFIP4.79
FIP − xFIP+1.78 97
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed75.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-15
Sinker
Hard · 41.7% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.5 mph
Avg launch angle6.4°
HRs allowed2
Pitches457
Changeup
Offspeed · 18.2% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle5.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches199
Cutter
Hard · 15.4% usage
+2.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.7 mph
Avg launch angle1.4°
HRs allowed5
Pitches169
Sweeper
Breaking · 12.7% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.5 mph
Avg launch angle7.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches139
Fastball
Hard · 6.1% usage
+8.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against89.0 mph
Avg launch angle17.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches67
Curveball
Breaking · 5.8% usage
+2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.4 mph
Avg launch angle23.6°
HRs allowed2
Pitches64
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Brayan Bello.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
12 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.0 EV · 395 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 8 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-04
9
0
112.4
2026-05-17
9
2
105.6
2026-04-29
9
1
106.3
2026-04-24
9
5
111.2
2026-04-18
9
1
105.9
2026-04-12
8
2
112.2
2026-04-06
9
0
104.2
2026-03-31
9
1
108.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Brayan Bello isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.