Season 2026
LongDong™️ 3.0
Season Dashboard
Last updated
5:00 AM · May 31, 2026
64 slates tracked
35.1%
Top-50 Capture RatePercentage of all MLB home runs hit on days we had a slate where the batter appeared in our top 50 ranked picks. Higher = we're surfacing the right names.
450/1281 HRs
18.7%
Top-25 Capture RateSame as top-50, but only counting batters ranked in our top 25. Measures how well the model's highest-confidence picks perform.
239/1281 HRs
7.8%
Top-10 Capture RatePercentage of HRs where the batter was in our top 10. This is the sharpest edge — if this number stays above 10%, the model is beating random chance by 3×+.
100/1281 HRs
1281
Total HRs TrackedTotal home runs hit across all game days we've tracked this season. This is the denominator for all capture rate calculations.
64 game days
📅 Day-by-Day Performance
| Date | Players | Total HRs | Top 10 | Top 25 | Top 50 | HR Batters Caught |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri May 29 | 252 | 41 |
5/41
|
6/41
|
13/41
|
#1 Kyle Schwarber 40.7%#2 Curtis Mead 40.3%#3 Nathaniel Lowe 39.2%#5 Dillon Dingler 35.3% |
| Thu May 28 | 108 | 10 |
1/10
|
2/10
|
3/10
|
#8 Michael Harris II 26.9%#16 Ian Happ 19.3%#30 Coby Mayo 13.5%#59 Andrés Giménez 9.4% |
| Wed May 27 | 270 | 23 |
1/23
|
6/23
|
9/23
|
#2 Byron Buxton 39.0%#11 Munetaka Murakami 31.1%#15 Yordan Álvarez 28.7%#19 Juan Soto 27.0% |
| Tue May 26 | 261 | 42 |
2/42
|
4/42
|
10/42
|
#1 Juan Soto 41.2%#4 Munetaka Murakami 36.1%#12 Samuel Basallo 31.5%#15 James Wood 29.2% |
| Mon May 25 | 234 | 32 |
2/32
|
6/32
|
11/32
|
#1 Kyle Schwarber 39.3%#2 Luke Raley 37.3%#11 Christian Walker 27.4%#18 Munetaka Murakami 25.3% |
| Sun May 24 | 288 | 24 |
2/24
|
4/24
|
8/24
|
#4 Dillon Dingler 37.9%#7 Dillon Dingler 31.5%#18 Jake Burger 27.1%#23 Miguel Vargas 25.1% |
| Sat May 23 | 288 | 19 |
2/19
|
2/19
|
6/19
|
#5 Jordan Walker 36.5%#7 Jordan Walker 34.9%#34 Nathaniel Lowe 23.1%#35 Christian Walker 22.8% |
| Fri May 22 | 261 | 17 |
0/17
|
1/17
|
3/17
|
#24 Juan Soto 25.7%#36 Byron Buxton 21.5%#44 Pete Alonso 19.7%#64 Zach Neto 17.0% |
| Thu May 21 | 117 | 10 |
1/10
|
3/10
|
5/10
|
#6 Brandon Lowe 27.2%#18 Dillon Dingler 17.8%#24 Owen Caissie 15.3%#33 Michael Harris II 13.3% |
| Wed May 20 | 261 | 28 |
1/28
|
1/28
|
6/28
|
#4 Juan Soto 36.6%#26 Sal Stewart 24.4%#37 Jake Burger 20.3%#43 Jorge Soler 18.5% |
| Tue May 19 | 261 | 28 |
1/28
|
2/28
|
5/28
|
#10 Ben Rice 31.8%#25 James Wood 21.9%#26 Xavier Edwards 21.9%#39 Mike Trout 18.7% |
| Mon May 18 | 252 | 25 |
1/25
|
2/25
|
4/25
|
#9 Junior Caminero 34.2%#23 Sal Stewart 25.7%#26 Julio Rodríguez 23.5%#38 Jake Bauers 18.9% |
| Sun May 17 | 270 | 33 |
1/33
|
2/33
|
6/33
|
#5 Ben Rice 43.3%#12 Angel Martínez 36.0%#32 Corbin Carroll 26.0%#36 Ryan Jeffers 25.1% |
| Sat May 16 | 261 | 28 |
3/28
|
10/28
|
12/28
|
#1 Munetaka Murakami 42.9%#2 Colson Montgomery 40.2%#4 Drake Baldwin 37.8%#13 Christian Walker 30.7% |
| Fri May 15 | 261 | 28 |
2/28
|
7/28
|
9/28
|
#3 Drake Baldwin 48.3%#8 Colson Montgomery 37.8%#13 Andy Pages 34.1%#16 Ben Rice 32.4% |
| Thu May 14 | 189 | 22 |
5/22
|
7/22
|
10/22
|
#2 Luke Raley 51.6%#4 Jordan Walker 47.6%#5 Zack Gelof 46.9%#7 JJ Bleday 40.0% |
| Wed May 13 | 261 | 23 |
1/23
|
3/23
|
7/23
|
#3 Luke Raley 43.8%#11 Drake Baldwin 29.6%#14 Byron Buxton 28.4%#32 Mickey Moniak 21.2% |
| Tue May 12 | 252 | 22 |
1/22
|
2/22
|
6/22
|
#5 Shea Langeliers 38.2%#16 James Wood 29.6%#34 Ryan Jeffers 22.8%#36 Brady House 22.6% |
| Mon May 11 | 99 | 7 |
1/7
|
2/7
|
6/7
|
#2 Ben Rice 42.0%#22 Coby Mayo 17.3%#28 Jonathan Aranda 15.1%#31 Rafael Devers 14.4% |
| Sun May 10 | 252 | 17 |
3/17
|
3/17
|
6/17
|
#2 Kyle Schwarber 42.6%#6 Aaron Judge 39.0%#9 Bryce Harper 35.4%#29 Jordan Walker 22.9% |
| Sat May 9 | 261 | 18 |
0/18
|
2/18
|
6/18
|
#12 Kyle Schwarber 32.1%#16 Byron Buxton 29.6%#26 James Wood 24.9%#32 Brent Rooker 22.4% |
| Fri May 8 | 243 | 17 |
2/17
|
4/17
|
6/17
|
#4 Munetaka Murakami 39.4%#10 Kyle Schwarber 34.2%#13 Hunter Goodman 33.5%#20 Byron Buxton 28.8% |
| Thu May 7 | 180 | 17 |
2/17
|
4/17
|
8/17
|
#2 Kyle Schwarber 42.5%#3 Liam Hicks 39.8%#18 Junior Caminero 24.5%#19 Shea Langeliers 23.4% |
| Wed May 6 | 270 | 24 |
1/24
|
4/24
|
8/24
|
#3 Aaron Judge 49.0%#13 Brice Matthews 31.4%#16 Ian Happ 29.9%#17 Gavin Sheets 29.5% |
| Tue May 5 | 261 | 25 |
2/25
|
6/25
|
10/25
|
#4 Mike Trout 40.3%#6 Nathaniel Lowe 38.9%#14 Liam Hicks 31.9%#15 Matt Olson 31.7% |
| Mon May 4 | 198 | 21 |
3/21
|
4/21
|
7/21
|
#1 Aaron Judge 50.9%#3 Munetaka Murakami 36.9%#8 Matt Olson 35.4%#24 Drake Baldwin 23.1% |
| Sun May 3 | 243 | 13 |
1/13
|
2/13
|
4/13
|
#3 Mickey Moniak 40.0%#12 Moisés Ballesteros 32.0%#32 Spencer Torkelson 22.2%#45 Chase DeLauter 18.4% |
| Sat May 2 | 261 | 14 |
0/14
|
1/14
|
5/14
|
#22 Jordan Walker 28.5%#30 Ian Happ 25.8%#34 Byron Buxton 24.5%#46 Shea Langeliers 20.5% |
| Fri May 1 | 252 | 25 |
1/25
|
5/25
|
7/25
|
#5 Munetaka Murakami 40.6%#11 Mickey Moniak 35.2%#13 Colson Montgomery 33.9%#14 Junior Caminero 32.9% |
| Thu Apr 30 | 180 | 23 |
2/23
|
6/23
|
10/23
|
#1 Nathaniel Lowe 50.8%#10 Yordan Alvarez 40.6%#11 Kyle Schwarber 38.2%#12 Yordan Alvarez 37.9% |
| Wed Apr 29 | 261 | 20 |
1/20
|
3/20
|
4/20
|
#7 Hunter Goodman 42.0%#17 Liam Hicks 35.8%#18 Mike Trout 34.8%#28 Willson Contreras 29.3% |
| Tue Apr 28 | 225 | 14 |
0/14
|
2/14
|
4/14
|
#15 Aaron Judge 32.7%#25 Oneil Cruz 27.6%#38 Colson Montgomery 21.1%#41 Byron Buxton 20.6% |
| Mon Apr 27 | 144 | 14 |
2/14
|
6/14
|
11/14
|
#6 Ben Rice 30.3%#9 Seiya Suzuki 26.5%#12 Aaron Judge 24.2%#18 Liam Hicks 21.5% |
| Sun Apr 26 | 279 | 28 |
2/28
|
5/28
|
11/28
|
#4 Christian Walker 37.2%#6 Kyle Schwarber 34.5%#14 Nathan Church 30.9%#18 Gunnar Henderson 30.4% |
| Sat Apr 25 | 270 | 26 |
0/26
|
3/26
|
5/26
|
#15 Elly De La Cruz 37.2%#20 Seiya Suzuki 35.4%#21 Sal Stewart 34.9%#39 Christian Walker 26.7% |
| Fri Apr 24 | 252 | 38 |
6/38
|
9/38
|
15/38
|
#1 Gunnar Henderson 53.6%#2 Adley Rutschman 50.3%#3 Ben Rice 49.4%#6 Angel Martínez 46.4% |
| Thu Apr 23 | 162 | 20 |
4/20
|
7/20
|
14/20
|
#1 James Wood 46.7%#2 Mickey Moniak 39.1%#3 CJ Abrams 35.1%#4 Ian Happ 34.3% |
| Wed Apr 22 | 261 | 27 |
3/27
|
5/27
|
11/27
|
#1 Matt Olson 41.3%#2 Yordan Alvarez 38.9%#5 Mike Trout 36.0%#14 Michael Harris II 31.0% |
| Tue Apr 21 | 243 | 20 |
1/20
|
3/20
|
6/20
|
#1 James Wood 39.1%#15 Kyle Schwarber 29.8%#16 Elly De La Cruz 29.8%#41 Shea Langeliers 18.6% |
| Mon Apr 20 | 171 | 14 |
1/14
|
2/14
|
6/14
|
#5 Matt Olson 32.8%#22 Dansby Swanson 25.1%#28 Christian Walker 22.1%#29 Max Muncy 21.6% |
| Sun Apr 19 | 270 | 21 |
4/21
|
5/21
|
7/21
|
#1 Aaron Judge 45.6%#2 Ben Rice 45.2%#5 Yordan Alvarez 38.8%#6 Mickey Moniak 37.5% |
| Sat Apr 18 | 270 | 27 |
1/27
|
6/27
|
7/27
|
#9 Ben Rice 37.2%#13 Gunnar Henderson 36.9%#17 Carter Jensen 33.8%#19 James Wood 33.1% |
| Fri Apr 17 | 261 | 26 |
1/26
|
4/26
|
8/26
|
#8 Jeremiah Jackson 38.9%#17 Ben Rice 31.1%#19 James Wood 28.9%#20 Yordan Alvarez 28.5% |
| Thu Apr 16 | 180 | 16 |
1/16
|
5/16
|
7/16
|
#8 Aaron Judge 32.5%#11 Hunter Goodman 29.9%#13 Ben Rice 29.3%#22 Dillon Dingler 22.3% |
| Wed Apr 15 | 143 | 17 |
4/17
|
5/17
|
7/17
|
#4 Matt Olson 33.1%#5 Teoscar Hernandez 32.5%#6 Teoscar Hernández 32.5%#7 Dansby Swanson 29.7% |
| Tue Apr 14 | 161 | 11 |
1/11
|
1/11
|
4/11
|
#2 Gary Sánchez 43.2%#33 Spencer Steer 19.2%#39 Francisco Lindor 16.6%#43 Carson Kelly 15.4% |
| Mon Apr 13 | 83 | 11 |
0/11
|
2/11
|
8/11
|
#13 Mike Trout 18.1%#16 Byron Buxton 14.5%#34 Agustin Ramirez 9.5%#36 Bo Naylor 8.8% |
| Sun Apr 12 | 172 | 19 |
2/19
|
4/19
|
9/19
|
#7 James Wood 36.7%#9 Nick Kurtz 33.8%#12 Aaron Judge 28.9%#23 Jake Bauers 21.9% |
| Sat Apr 11 | 234 | 21 |
3/21
|
4/21
|
8/21
|
#1 Kyle Schwarber 44.2%#2 Shohei Ohtani 43.4%#10 Teoscar Hernandez 27.3%#19 Mickey Moniak 24.1% |
| Fri Apr 10 | 251 | 29 |
1/29
|
7/29
|
12/29
|
#6 Corey Seager 34.4%#13 Zach Neto 28.4%#16 Carter Jensen 27.6%#17 Elly De La Cruz 27.2% |
| Thu Apr 9 | 81 | 1 |
0/1
|
0/1
|
0/1
|
#71 Brenton Doyle 5.7% |
| Wed Apr 8 | 243 | 7 |
0/7
|
2/7
|
2/7
|
#17 Jorge Soler 22.4%#20 Matt Olson 21.7%#71 Hunter Goodman 12.9%#166 Connor Norby 6.8% |
| Tue Apr 7 | 243 | 9 |
1/9
|
1/9
|
1/9
|
#3 Mickey Moniak 32.6%#54 Gunnar Henderson 14.7%#61 Christian Walker 14.5%#62 Pete Crow-Armstrong 14.3% |
| Mon Apr 6 | 216 | 19 |
3/19
|
5/19
|
9/19
|
#1 Shohei Ohtani 36.1%#6 Teoscar Hernandez 27.7%#7 Drake Baldwin 27.5%#14 Zach Neto 23.9% |
| Sun Apr 5 | 252 | 21 |
0/21
|
3/21
|
6/21
|
#18 Brent Rooker 18.2%#19 Mickey Moniak 17.9%#20 Ben Rice 17.4%#34 Dansby Swanson 15.7% |
| Sat Apr 4 | 243 | 12 |
0/12
|
2/12
|
4/12
|
#18 Zach Neto 18.3%#23 Cody Bellinger 17.4%#33 Christian Walker 15.7%#50 Kerry Carpenter 14.6% |
| Thu Apr 2 | 54 | 4 |
1/4
|
2/4
|
4/4
|
#3 Matt Wallner 14.9%#18 Matt Olson 11.2%#26 Mark Vientos 10.4%#42 Dominic Smith 7.6% |
| Wed Apr 1 | 243 | 21 |
2/21
|
3/21
|
8/21
|
#6 Freddie Freeman 19.5%#7 Bryce Harper 19.2%#20 Yandy Diaz 16.4%#27 Gabriel Arias 15.4% |
| Tue Mar 31 | 216 | 17 |
2/17
|
5/17
|
8/17
|
#3 Corey Seager 25.2%#7 Max Muncy 19.5%#11 Oneil Cruz 18.8%#12 Adolis Garcia 18.6% |
| Mon Mar 30 | 225 | 15 |
1/15
|
2/15
|
3/15
|
#7 George Springer 19.4%#25 Ian Happ 17.2%#50 Yandy Diaz 15.5%#54 Yoan Moncada 15.4% |
| Sun Mar 29 | 193 | 19 |
0/19
|
3/19
|
8/19
|
#16 Wilyer Abreu 18.3%#21 George Springer 17.5%#25 Drake Baldwin 17.4%#26 Carter Jensen 17.3% |
| Sat Mar 28 | 250 | 20 |
1/20
|
3/20
|
6/20
|
#4 Corey Seager 20.4%#13 Elly De La Cruz 17.8%#23 Will Smith 17.2%#26 Jake Burger 16.8% |
| Fri Mar 27 | 108 | 9 |
1/9
|
5/9
|
6/9
|
#9 Mike Trout 16.6%#12 Shea Langeliers 16.4%#20 Zach Neto 15.2%#21 Drake Baldwin 15.1% |
| Thu Mar 26 | 153 | 12 |
0/12
|
2/12
|
5/12
|
#12 Kyle Schwarber 16.6%#21 Mike Trout 15.6%#28 Dominic Canzone 14.7%#32 Andy Pages 14.3% |
| Season total (64 days) | 1281 | 100/1281 (7.8%) | 239/1281 (18.7%) | 450/1281 (35.1%) | ||
🎯 Score Tier Calibration
| Score Band | Batters | HRs | HR Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 25% | 1293 | 204 |
15.8%
|
| 20–25% ⚠ ANOMALY | 829 | 115 |
13.9%
|
| 17–20% | 801 | 111 |
13.9%
|
| 14–17% | 1343 | 147 |
10.9%
|
| < 14% | 9794 | 704 |
7.2%
|
📊 HR Rate by Model Rank
| Rank | Batters | HRs | HR Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1–10 | 640 | 100 |
15.62%
|
| #11–25 | 960 | 139 |
14.48%
|
| #26–50 | 1600 | 211 |
13.19%
|
| #51–100 | 3117 | 300 |
9.62%
|
| #100+ | 7743 | 531 |
6.86%
|
🌡️ Form Signal Effectiveness (Top 50 Only)
| Signal | Batters | HRs | HR Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEUTRAL | 1022 | 179 |
17.5%
|
| HOT | 186 | 20 |
10.8%
|
| WARM | 960 | 119 |
12.4%
|
| COOL | 726 | 103 |
14.2%
|
| COLD | 239 | 27 |
11.3%
|
| UNKNOWN | 67 | 2 |
3.0%
|
🏆 Best Calls — HR at Rank ≤ 15
| Rank | Batter | Date | Score | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Shohei Ohtani | Mon Apr 6 | 36.1% | 0.340 |
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Sat Apr 11 | 44.2% | 0.323 |
| #1 | Aaron Judge | Sun Apr 19 | 45.6% | 0.350 |
| #1 | James Wood | Tue Apr 21 | 39.1% | 0.290 |
| #1 | Matt Olson | Wed Apr 22 | 41.3% | 0.298 |
| #1 | James Wood | Thu Apr 23 | 46.7% | 0.346 |
| #1 | Gunnar Henderson | Fri Apr 24 | 53.6% | 0.270 |
| #1 | Nathaniel Lowe | Thu Apr 30 | 50.8% | 0.319 |
| #1 | Aaron Judge | Mon May 4 | 50.9% | 0.370 |
| #1 | Munetaka Murakami | Sat May 16 | 42.9% | 0.309 |
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Mon May 25 | 39.3% | 0.376 |
| #1 | Juan Soto | Tue May 26 | 41.2% | 0.253 |
💀 Worst Misses — HR Batter Ranked > 75
| Rank | Batter | Date | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| #279 | Masataka Yoshida | Sun May 24 | 5.6% |
| #276 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Sun Apr 26 | 4.6% |
| #272 | Lane Thomas | Sun Apr 26 | 4.9% |
| #268 | Nick Yorke | Sun Apr 19 | 4.3% |
| #268 | Colton Cowser | Sun May 17 | 4.9% |
| #266 | Gleyber Torres | Sun Apr 26 | 5.2% |
| #265 | Nathan Church | Sat Apr 25 | 5.2% |
| #263 | Cedric Mullins | Sat Apr 18 | 5.1% |
LongDong™️ 3.0 · Season 2026 · Built with obsession