⚾ TheHomeRuns.org™ 2026
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15-Day HR Leaders
1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
2026-05-31 · DATA-DRIVEN

Variance-Backed Card

The top 5 model picks combined produce only ~4% of nightly home runs. Picking chalk every day is a losing game. This card samples 6 picks from where HRs actually come from — backed by the last 30 days of data.

Last 30 days · 609 HRs across 5691 batter-game rows Where home runs actually come from
Anchor #1-15
12.3% of all HRs
16.7%hit rate
Mid-edge #16-50
22.8% of all HRs
13.2%hit rate
Sleeper #51-100
25.5% of all HRs
10.3%hit rate
Deep dart #101-200
39.4% of all HRs
8.9%hit rate

A 6-pick card is allocated proportionally: 1 anchor from top-15 keeps you grounded; the other 5 sample from where the HRs actually land.

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One card per night. Six picks. Sampled from reality.

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