2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Max Muncy 9 HRs · 2 Pete Alonso 6 HRs · 3 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 4 Rafael Devers 5 HRs · 5 Brooks Lee 5 HRs · 6 Tristan Peters 5 HRs · 7 Jordan Walker 4 HRs · 8 Luis García Jr. 4 HRs · 9 Heriberto Hernández 4 HRs · 10 Mickey Gasper 4 HRs · 11 Cal Raleigh 4 HRs · 12 Drew Gilbert 3 HRs 1 Max Muncy 9 HRs · 2 Pete Alonso 6 HRs · 3 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 4 Rafael Devers 5 HRs · 5 Brooks Lee 5 HRs · 6 Tristan Peters 5 HRs · 7 Jordan Walker 4 HRs · 8 Luis García Jr. 4 HRs · 9 Heriberto Hernández 4 HRs · 10 Mickey Gasper 4 HRs · 11 Cal Raleigh 4 HRs · 12 Drew Gilbert 3 HRs
2026-08-30 · DATA-DRIVEN

Variance-Backed Card

The top 5 model picks combined produce only ~4% of nightly home runs. Picking chalk every day is a losing game. This card samples 6 picks from where HRs actually come from — backed by the last 30 days of data.

Last 30 days · 656 HRs across 5394 batter-game rows Where home runs actually come from
Anchor #1-15
11.7% of all HRs
17.7%hit rate
Mid-edge #16-50
22.1% of all HRs
14.3%hit rate
Sleeper #51-100
29.4% of all HRs
13.3%hit rate
Deep dart #101-200
36.7% of all HRs
9.7%hit rate

A 6-pick card is allocated proportionally: 1 anchor from top-15 keeps you grounded; the other 5 sample from where the HRs actually land.

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One card per night. Six picks. Sampled from reality.

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THR 3.3.164 · build 668

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