Pick hit rate is the percentage of matchups in a given pool (Top 5, Top 10, etc.) where the batter actually hit a home run — i.e. how often a pick goes yard.

Baseline multiple is the pick hit rate divided by the field rate — the HR rate across every scored matchup in the same dataset (total HRs ÷ total matchups), which stands in for a league-average hitter. A baseline multiple of 2.0× means our picks homer twice as often as the field. For the 2025 backtest the field rate is 9.6%, so the 15.8% top-50 pick hit rate is 1.6× baseline.

Capture rate measures what fraction of all scored-slate home runs on a given day were batters ranked in our top N. If the official slate produced 20 HRs and the top 10 contained 3 of them, top-10 capture is 15%.

The backtest and older live rows are replay estimates unless backed by an official timestamped model snapshot. See the performance methodology for the migration rules.