⚾ TheHomeRuns.org™ 2026
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15-Day HR Leaders
1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
Track Record
How the model performs — 2025 full-season backtest and 2026 live results.
65
Days Tracked (2026)
1320
HRs Tracked (2026)
14.0%
Top-50 HR Rate (2026)
2026 Daily Top-50 Catch Rate
per-day HR rate among top 50 ranked batters · 65 game days · hover to explore
2026 Top-N Catch Rates
14,330 scored matchups
Top 5
49/325
15.1%
Top 10
92/650
14.2%
Top 15
150/975
15.4%
Top 25
244/1625
15.0%
Top 50
455/3250
14.0%
"Catch rate" = % of matchups in each top-N pool that resulted in a HR.
2026 Tier Performance
HR catch rate by model tier
S
0/4
0.0%
A+
5/29
17.2%
A
30/163
18.4%
B
81/402
20.1%
C+
131/879
14.9%
C
214/1699
12.6%
D
859/11154
7.7%
Higher-tier matchups should hit HRs at a higher rate. A healthy model shows a clear gradient from S down to D.
2025 Full-Season Backtest
182
Days Backtested
39,795
Matchups Scored
15.8%
Top-50 HR Rate
2025 Backtest — Daily Top-50 Catch Rate
full season · 182 game days · hover to explore
Top-N Catch Rates
39,795 scored matchups
Top 5
191/910
21.0%
Top 10
370/1820
20.3%
Top 15
519/2730
19.0%
Top 25
783/4550
17.2%
Top 50
1433/9095
15.8%
Backtest uses the same model logic against historical 2025 data. Actual HR outcomes are verified against MLB Statcast records.
Tier Performance
HR catch rate by model tier
S
0/0
0.0%
A+
1/1
100.0%
A
12/16
75.0%
B
0/0
0.0%
C+
267/1266
21.1%
C
0/0
0.0%
D
3542/38512
9.2%
How to read this

Pick-hit rate is the percentage of matchups in a given pool (Top 5, Top 10, etc.) where the batter actually hit a home run. The MLB baseline HR rate per plate appearance is roughly 3–4%.

Capture rate measures what fraction of all scored-slate home runs on a given day were batters ranked in our top N. If the official slate produced 20 HRs and the top 10 contained 3 of them, top-10 capture is 15%.

The backtest and older live rows are replay estimates unless backed by an official timestamped model snapshot. See the performance methodology for the migration rules.

LD 3.2.69
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