MLB Home Run Predictions Today · August 28, 2026
Model-ranked home run picks for tonight's slate — scores, tiers, and pitcher matchups, graded in public every night. Updated 2:00 PM ET. Not gambling advice.
TheHomeRuns.org scores every MLB batter, every day, on 30+ signals — barrel rate, park factors, weather, pitcher vulnerability, recent form — and ranks the board by home-run probability. The model has been graded live for 151 slates this season: 15.3% of top-50 picks homered (1.4× the 10.7% field rate), across 3,532 tracked home runs through 2026-08-27. Every night's board is graded in public — hits and misses — on the track record and in the dated archive below. No deleted bad days, no cherry-picking.
Tonight's board — the free slice
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Olson | Tomoyuki Sugano | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| 2 | Hunter Goodman | Grant Holmes | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| 3 | Pete Alonso | Jacob Lopez | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| 4 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Rhett Lowder | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| 5 | Ben Rice | Patrick Sandoval | 68 | C+ Value |
| 6 | Pro pick unlock to reveal |
Dean Kremer | 67 | C+ Value |
| 7 | Pro pick unlock to reveal |
Jacob Lopez | 65 | C+ Value |
| 8 | Pro pick unlock to reveal |
Drew Anderson | 64 | C+ Value |
| 9 | Pro pick unlock to reveal |
Grant Holmes | 63 | C+ Value |
| 10 | Pro pick unlock to reveal |
Drew Anderson | 63 | C+ Value |
Yesterday, graded · August 27, 2026
Keibert Ruiz, Vinnie Pasquantino, George Springer, Drew Gilbert, Gabriel Moreno, Ramón Urías, Blaze Jordan