MLB Home Run Predictions Today · October 17, 2026

Model-ranked home run picks for tonight's slate — scores, tiers, and pitcher matchups, graded in public every night. Not gambling advice.

TheHomeRuns.org scores every MLB batter, every day, on 30+ signals — barrel rate, park factors, weather, pitcher vulnerability, recent form — and ranks the board by home-run probability. The model has been graded live for 182 slates this season: 15.5% of top-50 picks homered (1.4× the 10.8% field rate), across 4,334 tracked home runs through 2026-09-27. Every night's board is graded in public — hits and misses — on the track record and in the dated archive below. No deleted bad days, no cherry-picking.