MLB Home Run Predictions — September 18, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-18: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 18, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
30
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
4/15
Top-15 picks that homered
49.6 vs 42.2
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #6 | Matt Olson | Peter Lambert | 65 | C+ Value |
| #8 | Max Muncy | Cesar Perdomo | 64 | C+ Value |
| #11 | Pete Alonso | Dustin May | 61 | C+ Value |
| #12 | Ben Rice | Eduardo Rodriguez | 60 | C+ Value |
| #16 | Riley Greene | David Sandlin | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #17 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Peter Lambert | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #19 | Miguel Vargas | Andrew Sears | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #29 | Corbin Carroll | Gerrit Cole | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #31 | Juan Soto | Tim Mayza | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #33 | Michael Harris II | Peter Lambert | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #38 | Jackson Chourio | Cade Povich | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #46 | Brandon Lowe | Randy Dobnak | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #48 | Ian Happ | Chase Burns | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #57 | Zack Gelof | Daniel Espino | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #62 | Mookie Betts | Cesar Perdomo | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #64 | Travis Bazzana | Mason Barnett | 49 | D Below |
| #67 | Jackson Merrill | Tyler Phillips | 49 | D Below |
| #69 | Hao-Yu Lee | David Sandlin | 49 | D Below |
| #73 | Kyle Tucker | Cesar Perdomo | 48 | D Below |
| #77 | Derek Hill | Zac Thornton | 47 | D Below |
| #84 | Ty France | Tyler Phillips | 47 | D Below |
| #93 | Jahmai Jones | Ian Seymour | 46 | D Below |
| #97 | Roman Anthony | Ian Seymour | 46 | D Below |
| #134 | Edmundo Sosa | Zac Thornton | 41 | D Below |
| #142 | Vinnie Pasquantino | Paul Skenes | 40 | D Below |
| #164 | José Ramírez | Mason Barnett | 39 | D Below |
| #176 | J.P. Crawford | Gabriel Hughes | 38 | D Below |
| #179 | Dylan Crews | Kyle Leahy | 38 | D Below |
| #194 | Michael Massey | Paul Skenes | 35 | D Below |
| #205 | Jung Hoo Lee | Tyler Glasnow | 33 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Zack Gelof, Mookie Betts, Travis Bazzana, Jackson Merrill, Hao-Yu Lee, Kyle Tucker, Derek Hill, Ty France, Jahmai Jones, Roman Anthony, Edmundo Sosa, Vinnie Pasquantino, José Ramírez, J.P. Crawford, Dylan Crews, Michael Massey, Jung Hoo Lee
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.