MLB Home Run Predictions — September 17, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-17: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 17, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
15
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.8 vs 43.7
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | Yordan Alvarez | Seth Lugo | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #7 | Munetaka Murakami | Framber Valdez | 64 | C+ Value |
| #21 | Sal Stewart | Justin Wrobleski | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #33 | Jeremy Peña | Seth Lugo | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #38 | Kyle Tucker | Brady Singer | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #54 | Taylor Trammell | Seth Lugo | 49 | D Below |
| #60 | Lawrence Butler | Drew Rasmussen | 45 | D Below |
| #75 | Daulton Varsho | Seth Lugo | 44 | D Below |
| #90 | Miguel Rojas | Brady Singer | 42 | D Below |
| #98 | LaMonte Wade Jr. | Seth Lugo | 41 | D Below |
| #103 | Henry Davis | Kyle Harrison | 40 | D Below |
| #106 | Josh Jung | Sonny Gray | 40 | D Below |
| #117 | Xander Bogaerts | Tanner Gordon | 38 | D Below |
| #135 | Bo Naylor | Wilber Dotel | 33 | D Below |
| #136 | Trevor Story | Tyler Alexander | 32 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Taylor Trammell, Lawrence Butler, Daulton Varsho, Miguel Rojas, LaMonte Wade Jr., Henry Davis, Josh Jung, Xander Bogaerts, Bo Naylor, Trevor Story
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.