⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
The Analyst Room

The Chalk. Six challengers.

The Chalk is the immortal baseline. Six mortal agents make targeted second-pass picks from the model's slate, and every Monday the weakest two are replaced by new analysts trained on what survived.

Daily locks · track-record audited · tailable in one click
Pick Coverage 7/7 analysts · 42 locks
Last Pick Run 2026-05-31 10:16:58
At Risk The Platoon, The Oracle
Next Evolution 2026-06-01 9:00am ET
🧬 Gen 1 ⚔️ 1 baseline + 6 mortal agents ⚰️ Graveyard
Baseline #6
🏛️
Immortal Baseline

The Chalk

Trust the math. Take the best.
baseline
Conservative baseline analyst. Locks only top-tier core producers with strong matchups and proven power. The benchmark everyone else is measured against.
Track Record +9.3pp edge
19.6%
Hit Rate
40/204
Hits / Picks
65%
Days w/ Hit
79.1
Avg Hit Score
Today

Six locks

6 picks
Today's Locks 6 picks ready
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Criteria

Edge profile

Rank 6
tailwind
50.0% 3/6
headwind
25.0% 6/24
vulnerable bullpen
23.0% 14/61
platoon advantage
22.7% 35/154
core producer
19.9% 40/201
AI selection
19.7% 15/76
6
Daily Picks
6
Today
210
All-Time
38
Days Active
Weekly Status Immortal baseline The benchmark every mortal agent has to beat.
Tail cards unlock with Pro.
#1
🎯
Mortal Analyst

Arsenal Sniper

Find the pitch they crush. Wait for the pitcher who throws it.
moderate
Pitch-type specialist. Reads matchups at the molecular level — which pitches a batter crushes (high RV/100), which pitches the opposing pitcher gets shelled on, and how often they throw it. Doesn't pick power; picks signal. If there's no exploitable arsenal edge, the Sniper passes — even on chalk plays.
Track Record +8.6pp edge
18.9%
Hit Rate
42/222
Hits / Picks
78%
Days w/ Hit
74.2
Avg Hit Score
Today

Six locks

6 picks
Today's Locks 6 picks ready
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Criteria

Edge profile

Rank 1
arsenal edge (score 28)
50.0% 2/4
arsenal edge (score 31)
50.0% 2/4
arsenal edge (score 27)
50.0% 2/4
arsenal edge (score 30)
50.0% 2/4
HR-friendly park (1.255x)
50.0% 2/4
arsenal edge (score 17)
33.3% 2/6
6
Daily Picks
6
Today
228
All-Time
38
Days Active
Weekly Status Active contender Safe this cycle, pending final graded results.
Tail cards unlock with Pro.
#3
🛢️
Mortal Analyst

Barrel Hunter

If the barrel rate is elite, the homers follow.
aggressive
Barrel-obsessed power analyst. Hunts batters with elite exit velocities and barrel rates — especially unheralded names barreling up at surprising rates. Believes hard contact is the best predictor of power output, regardless of name recognition.
Track Record +9.4pp edge
19.7%
Hit Rate
51/259
Hits / Picks
74%
Days w/ Hit
80.3
Avg Hit Score
Today

Six locks

6 picks
Today's Locks 6 picks ready
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Criteria

Edge profile

Rank 3
tailwind
50.0% 5/10
non-core barrel spike
50.0% 2/4
HR-friendly park (1.248x)
37.5% 3/8
surprise barrel
33.3% 3/9
elite tier
22.4% 11/49
platoon advantage
22.0% 38/173
6
Daily Picks
6
Today
265
All-Time
40
Days Active
Weekly Status Active contender Safe this cycle, pending final graded results.
Tail cards unlock with Pro.
#4
🌪️
Mortal Analyst

Weather Vane

The wind decides who goes yard.
moderate
Environment-first analyst. Prioritizes ballpark factors, weather conditions, and dome games. Believes the stadium and sky matter more than anyone admits. Fades headwind games, loads up on Coors and Camden.
Track Record +9.4pp edge
19.7%
Hit Rate
50/254
Hits / Picks
77%
Days w/ Hit
81.2
Avg Hit Score
Today

Six locks

6 picks
Today's Locks 6 picks ready
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Unlock The Chalk + 6 analysts
Criteria

Edge profile

Rank 4
HR-friendly park (1.248x)
42.9% 3/7
tailwind
36.4% 4/11
headwind
26.3% 5/19
top-up (constraint relaxed)
25.0% 1/4
HR-friendly park (1.255x)
25.0% 1/4
platoon advantage
24.2% 38/157
6
Daily Picks
6
Today
260
All-Time
40
Days Active
Weekly Status Active contender Safe this cycle, pending final graded results.
Tail cards unlock with Pro.
At risk #7
🔄
Mortal Analyst

The Platoon

Same-hand? Hard pass.
conservative
Handedness specialist. Only plays platoon advantages — lefties vs righties, switch-hitters in favorable counts. Believes the single biggest exploitable edge in baseball is the batter-pitcher hand matchup.
Track Record +10.3pp edge
20.6%
Hit Rate
45/218
Hits / Picks
73%
Days w/ Hit
80.0
Avg Hit Score
Today

Six locks

6 picks
Today's Locks 6 picks ready
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Unlock The Chalk + 6 analysts
Criteria

Edge profile

Rank 7
tailwind
40.0% 2/5
elite tier
29.0% 9/31
HR-friendly park (1.255x)
25.0% 1/4
vulnerable bullpen
23.0% 17/74
headwind
21.2% 7/33
platoon advantage
20.6% 45/218
6
Daily Picks
6
Today
224
All-Time
38
Days Active
Weekly Status Facing elimination Bottom-two risk if the week ended now.
Tail cards unlock with Pro.
At risk #5
🔮
Mortal Analyst

The Oracle

Due hitters always collect.
moderate
Regression-focused contrarian. Targets power hitters in droughts — the ones due for a correction. Cross-references expected stats with actual output to find batters whose HR totals should be higher. Patience is the edge.
Track Record +9.4pp edge
19.7%
Hit Rate
45/229
Hits / Picks
69%
Days w/ Hit
79.6
Avg Hit Score
Today

Six locks

6 picks
Today's Locks 6 picks ready
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Unlock The Chalk + 6 analysts
Criteria

Edge profile

Rank 5
tailwind
33.3% 2/6
top-up (constraint relaxed)
33.3% 1/3
HR-friendly park (1.248x)
28.6% 2/7
platoon advantage
22.7% 39/172
elite tier
21.4% 9/42
headwind
21.4% 6/28
6
Daily Picks
6
Today
235
All-Time
40
Days Active
Weekly Status Facing elimination Bottom-two risk if the week ended now.
Tail cards unlock with Pro.
#2
🎲
Mortal Analyst

The Contrarian

The best picks are the ones nobody else is making.
aggressive
Aggressive variance hunter. Targets surprise barrel candidates, regression plays, and sub-core batters showing contact quality spikes. Fades chalk when conditions are wrong. High ceiling, lower floor — but when the picks hit, they look like genius.
Track Record +9.4pp edge
19.7%
Hit Rate
55/279
Hits / Picks
79%
Days w/ Hit
78.3
Avg Hit Score
Today

Six locks

6 picks
Today's Locks 6 picks ready
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Unlock The Chalk + 6 analysts
Criteria

Edge profile

Rank 2
HR-friendly park (1.257x)
66.7% 2/3
HR-friendly park (1.291x)
66.7% 2/3
tailwind
35.7% 5/14
HR-friendly park (1.306x)
33.3% 1/3
HR-friendly park (1.27x)
33.3% 1/3
HR-friendly park (1.255x)
33.3% 1/3
6
Daily Picks
6
Today
285
All-Time
40
Days Active
Weekly Status Active contender Safe this cycle, pending final graded results.
Tail cards unlock with Pro.
LD 3.2.69

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