Pitcher Meltdown Report
Pitchers giving up HRs way above their expected rate — target their opposing batters.
FIP-xFIP Gap Leaderboard (Season)
| # | Pitcher | FIP | xFIP | Gap | HRs Allowed | HR Rate | Appearances |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dean Kremer | 7.37 | 1.22 | +6.15 | 2 | 22.2% | 9 |
| 2 | Zack Littell | 8.25 | 5.29 | +2.96 | 12 | 14.8% | 81 |
| 3 | Luis Gil | 8.34 | 5.57 | +2.76 | 3 | 11.1% | 27 |
| 4 | Kyle Backhus | 4.79 | 2.13 | +2.66 | 1 | 11.1% | 9 |
| 5 | Nick Lodolo | 8.06 | 5.46 | +2.60 | 3 | 16.7% | 18 |
| 6 | Max Scherzer | 8.14 | 5.83 | +2.32 | 7 | 19.4% | 36 |
| 7 | Taijuan Walker | 6.50 | 4.37 | +2.12 | 4 | 22.2% | 18 |
| 8 | Trey Gibson | 7.18 | 5.16 | +2.02 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 9 | Kendry Rojas | 5.43 | 3.42 | +2.01 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 10 | Brayan Bello | 6.92 | 4.93 | +1.99 | 12 | 19.4% | 62 |
| 11 | Miles Mikolas | 6.73 | 4.84 | +1.89 | 4 | 7.4% | 54 |
| 12 | Ryan Weiss | 5.94 | 4.16 | +1.77 | 2 | 11.1% | 18 |
| 13 | Germán Márquez | 6.47 | 4.76 | +1.71 | 6 | 11.1% | 54 |
| 14 | Griffin Jax | 6.20 | 4.51 | +1.69 | 4 | 7.4% | 54 |
| 15 | JR Ritchie | 5.94 | 4.25 | +1.69 | 6 | 16.7% | 36 |
| 16 | Cole Ragans | 6.20 | 4.67 | +1.54 | 11 | 15.5% | 71 |
| 17 | Tyler Mahle | 5.50 | 3.98 | +1.53 | 8 | 9.9% | 81 |
| 18 | Merrill Kelly | 7.32 | 5.83 | +1.49 | 3 | 5.6% | 54 |
| 19 | Nathan Eovaldi | 4.88 | 3.44 | +1.44 | 10 | 10.1% | 99 |
| 20 | Roki Sasaki | 6.42 | 4.97 | +1.44 | 6 | 8.3% | 72 |
| 21 | Brandon Sproat | 6.22 | 4.78 | +1.44 | 14 | 14.3% | 98 |
| 22 | Jameson Taillon | 6.03 | 4.63 | +1.40 | 15 | 15.3% | 98 |
| 23 | Ryan Feltner | 5.86 | 4.61 | +1.24 | 6 | 11.1% | 54 |
| 24 | Blake Snell | 4.77 | 3.57 | +1.20 | 0 | 0.0% | 18 |
| 25 | Garrett Crochet | 4.81 | 3.75 | +1.06 | 3 | 5.7% | 53 |
How to use this:
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) measures what a
pitcher's ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs. xFIP
goes further by normalizing HR/FB rate to league average. When FIP is much higher than xFIP
(positive gap), the pitcher is giving up more home runs than expected — either they're tipping pitches,
their stuff has declined, or they're just getting unlucky with fly ball distance.
Either way, target their opposing batters.
A negative gap means the pitcher is getting lucky — their HR rate may regress upward.