13
HRs allowed
8.8%
HR rate (pool)
16.1%
Overall HR/FB
4.34
FIP
4.31
xFIP
+0.03
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
72
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 72th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
16.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed
73.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.8 EV · 404 ft
max EV allowed 112.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Brandon Pfaadt.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
27.1%
84.3
31.3°
5
-1.3
Sinker Hard
16.5%
84.6
1.4°
4
+0.3
Changeup Offspeed
15.9%
78.5
7.5°
3
+0.1
Curveball Breaking
14.6%
83.7
4.2°
2
+0.4
Sweeper Breaking
14.3%
79.7
20.3°
0
-1.2
Cutter Hard
11.6%
85.1
16.1°
0
-2.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups147
HRs allowed (pool)13
Pool HR rate8.8%
Pool HR/game day0.72
Top-15 matchups13
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB16.1% 72
HR/9—
FIP4.34 62
xFIP4.31
FIP − xFIP+0.03 48
Barrel% allowed16.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed73.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Fastball
Hard · 27.1% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle31.3°
HRs allowed5
Pitches550
Sinker
Hard · 16.5% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.6 mph
Avg launch angle1.4°
HRs allowed4
Pitches335
Changeup
Offspeed · 15.9% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.5 mph
Avg launch angle7.5°
HRs allowed3
Pitches324
Curveball
Breaking · 14.6% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle4.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches297
Sweeper
Breaking · 14.3% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle20.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches291
Cutter
Hard · 11.6% usage
-2.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.1 mph
Avg launch angle16.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches235
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Brandon Pfaadt.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
13 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.8 EV · 404 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-25
7
0
112.2
2026-09-19
6
1
104.8
2026-09-12
9
1
108.4
2026-09-05
9
0
106.6
2026-08-31
8
1
109.9
2026-08-25
7
1
109.0
2026-08-19
9
3
102.2
2026-08-14
9
0
108.3
2026-08-08
9
1
104.4
2026-08-03
6
0
104.9
2026-07-28
9
2
103.7
2026-07-23
9
0
110.7
2026-07-18
9
0
99.6
2026-07-11
8
0
107.4
2026-07-06
6
0
103.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Brandon Pfaadt isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Brandon Pfaadt isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
72
6
8%
9
3
33%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
13
0
0%
9
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 9. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Brandon Pfaadt
How many home runs has Brandon Pfaadt allowed this season?
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed 13 home runs across 18 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Brandon Pfaadt?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Brandon Pfaadt include Drake Baldwin (2), Kyle Tucker (2), Shohei Ohtani (2) and 37 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.