3
HRs allowed
7.3%
HR rate (pool)
16.7%
Overall HR/FB
5.2
FIP
4.42
xFIP
+0.78
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
80
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 80th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
67.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 110.2 EV · 399 ft
max EV allowed 111.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 0 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Brandon Pfaadt.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
24.1%
84.9
24.5°
1
-0.2
Sinker Hard
19.1%
84.6
-4.6°
4
+1.7
Curveball Breaking
19.0%
81.8
6.8°
1
-0.3
Cutter Hard
13.1%
84.4
18.8°
0
-1.9
Sweeper Breaking
12.7%
80.9
28.3°
0
-0.5
Changeup Offspeed
11.5%
80.9
6.9°
2
+2.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups41
HRs allowed (pool)3
Pool HR rate7.3%
Pool HR/game day0.6
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB16.7% 80
HR/9—
FIP5.2 85
xFIP4.42
FIP − xFIP+0.78 83
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed67.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-18
Fastball
Hard · 24.1% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.9 mph
Avg launch angle24.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches203
Sinker
Hard · 19.1% usage
+1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.6 mph
Avg launch angle-4.6°
HRs allowed4
Pitches161
Curveball
Breaking · 19.0% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.8 mph
Avg launch angle6.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches160
Cutter
Hard · 13.1% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.4 mph
Avg launch angle18.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches110
Sweeper
Breaking · 12.7% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.9 mph
Avg launch angle28.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches107
Changeup
Offspeed · 11.5% usage
+2.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.9 mph
Avg launch angle6.9°
HRs allowed2
Pitches97
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Brandon Pfaadt.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
3 allowed · scored pool
avg 110.2 EV · 399 ft
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 5 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
8
0
107.4
2026-07-06
6
0
103.2
2026-04-11
9
2
111.5
2026-04-05
9
1
108.4
2026-03-31
9
0
108.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Brandon Pfaadt isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.