2026
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15-Day HR Leaders
1 Max Muncy 7 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Rafael Devers 5 HRs · 4 Tristan Peters 5 HRs · 5 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 6 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 7 Mickey Gasper 5 HRs · 8 Cal Raleigh 5 HRs · 9 Daylen Lile 4 HRs · 10 Luis García Jr. 4 HRs · 11 Coby Mayo 4 HRs · 12 Brooks Lee 4 HRs 1 Max Muncy 7 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Rafael Devers 5 HRs · 4 Tristan Peters 5 HRs · 5 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 6 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 7 Mickey Gasper 5 HRs · 8 Cal Raleigh 5 HRs · 9 Daylen Lile 4 HRs · 10 Luis García Jr. 4 HRs · 11 Coby Mayo 4 HRs · 12 Brooks Lee 4 HRs

MLB Home Run Predictions — August 31, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-08-31: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 31, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

22
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
48.0 vs 44.8
Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-08-31.
Top 5
0/5
0.0%
Top 10
0/10
0.0%
Top 15
2/15
13.3%
Top 25
3/25
12.0%

Home runs, graded

22 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.
RankBatterVs pitcherScoreTier
#13 Rafael Devers Bryce Elder
Truist Park
 62 C+ Value
#14 Colson Montgomery Peter Lambert
Minute Maid Park
 62 C+ Value
#25 Jonah Cox Bryce Elder
Truist Park
 57 C BelowAvg
#27 Seiya Suzuki Kyle Harrison
Wrigley Field
 57 C BelowAvg
#31 Nelson Velázquez Anthony Kay
Minute Maid Park
 56 C BelowAvg
#41 Michael Harris II Anthony Molina
Truist Park
 54 C BelowAvg
#43 Justin Foscue Gage Jump
Globe Life Field
 53 C BelowAvg
#47 Kody Clemens Jackson Jobe
Target Field
 53 C BelowAvg
#50 Daylen Lile Ryan Gusto
Nationals Park
 52 C BelowAvg
#52 Mark Vientos Ian Seymour
Tropicana Field
 51 C BelowAvg
#68 Alex Bregman Kyle Harrison
Wrigley Field
 48 D Below
#69 Cal Raleigh Payton Tolle
Fenway Park
 48 D Below
#89 Ryan Jeffers Jackson Jobe
Target Field
 46 D Below
#92 Mickey Gasper George Kirby
Fenway Park
 45 D Below
#108 Randy Arozarena Payton Tolle
Fenway Park
 43 D Below
#109 Carson Kelly Kyle Harrison
Wrigley Field
 43 D Below
#117 Jarren Duran George Kirby
Fenway Park
 42 D Below
#120 Hao-Yu Lee Taj Bradley
Target Field
 42 D Below
#130 Osleivis Basabe Bryce Elder
Truist Park
 40 D Below
#159 Bryson Stott Brandon Pfaadt
Chase Field
 36 D Below
#163 Cooper Pratt Clay Holmes
Wrigley Field
 36 D Below
#186 Nico Hoerner Kyle Harrison
Wrigley Field
 31 D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Mark Vientos, Alex Bregman, Cal Raleigh, Ryan Jeffers, Mickey Gasper, Randy Arozarena, Carson Kelly, Jarren Duran, Hao-Yu Lee, Osleivis Basabe, Bryson Stott, Cooper Pratt, Nico Hoerner

← 2026-08-30 Today's predictions
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.
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