Model transparency

How the model's weights changed over time.

Every time the weekly optimizer runs, it logs the proposed weights, the out-of-sample AUC, and whether the result actually shipped. This is that record — straight from the optimizer's audit trail, not a marketing recap.

v3.5

Live version

Versions shipped

Optimizer runs logged

The optimizer fits an L2 logistic regression on every scored matchup, then proposes new weights. A run only ships if its AUC lift clears the guardrail and it doesn't lose home runs in the top-N capture check — so most runs are logged as proposed, not applied. The per-feature deltas below compare each shipped version against the previous shipped version.

2026-06-30 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5914 · +0.0038 lift vs baseline · 15,010 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 17.8

Barrel% 14.7

Avg Exit Velo 5.5

Pitcher FIP 5.4

Park Factor 3.9

Season HR Rate 3.2

HR/FB Matchup 1.6

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-06-29 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5847 · -0.0009 lift vs baseline · 14,809 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 17.9

Barrel% 14.0

Avg Exit Velo 5.6

Pitcher FIP 5.1

Season HR Rate 4.3

Park Factor 3.7

HR/FB Matchup 1.3

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-06-28 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5797 · -0.0005 lift vs baseline · 14,575 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 18.2

Barrel% 13.8

Avg Exit Velo 5.7

Pitcher FIP 5.2

Season HR Rate 4.1

Park Factor 3.7

HR/FB Matchup 1.2

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-06-27 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5813 · -0.0002 lift vs baseline · 14,340 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 18.6

Barrel% 14.2

Avg Exit Velo 5.9

Pitcher FIP 5.5

Park Factor 3.8

Season HR Rate 3.4

HR/FB Matchup 0.5

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-06-26 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5923 · +0.0022 lift vs baseline · 14,102 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 19.5

Barrel% 14.0

Avg Exit Velo 6.5

Pitcher FIP 5.8

Park Factor 4.4

Season HR Rate 1.2

HR/FB Matchup 0.6

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-06-25 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5874 · +0.0011 lift vs baseline · 13,962 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 19.8

Barrel% 13.0

Avg Exit Velo 6.5

Pitcher FIP 6.2

Park Factor 4.1

Season HR Rate 1.7

HR/FB Matchup 0.7

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-06-24 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5955 · +0.0019 lift vs baseline · 13,712 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 19.3

Barrel% 12.7

Avg Exit Velo 6.6

Pitcher FIP 6.3

Park Factor 4.1

HR/FB Matchup 1.9

Season HR Rate 1.1

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-06-23 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6058 · +0.0010 lift vs baseline · 13,481 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 19.2

Barrel% 12.7

Avg Exit Velo 6.6

Pitcher FIP 6.3

Park Factor 4.1

HR/FB Matchup 1.9

Season HR Rate 1.3

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-06-22 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6170 · +0.0022 lift vs baseline · 13,272 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 18.7

Barrel% 13.5

Pitcher FIP 6.0

Avg Exit Velo 5.0

Park Factor 4.3

HR/FB Matchup 2.3

Season HR Rate 2.2

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-06-19 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6106 · -0.0008 lift vs baseline · 12,617 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 18.5

Barrel% 12.4

Pitcher FIP 6.3

Avg Exit Velo 4.4

Park Factor 4.1

Season HR Rate 3.7

HR/FB Matchup 2.7

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-06-16 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6151 · -0.0010 lift vs baseline · 12,029 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 16.9

Barrel% 12.4

Pitcher FIP 6.4

Season HR Rate 4.5

Park Factor 4.4

Avg Exit Velo 4.0

HR/FB Matchup 3.4

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-06-15 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6049 · -0.0006 lift vs baseline · 11,885 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 15.9

Barrel% 12.2

Season HR Rate 6.3

Pitcher FIP 6.1

Avg Exit Velo 4.6

Park Factor 3.9

HR/FB Matchup 3.0

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-06-09 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5794 · -0.0074 lift vs baseline · 10,619 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 16.6

Barrel% 9.0

Pitcher FIP 7.9

Season HR Rate 6.6

HR/FB Matchup 5.0

Avg Exit Velo 4.2

Park Factor 2.7

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-06-08 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5781 · -0.0070 lift vs baseline · 10,496 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)

ISO 16.8

Barrel% 8.9

Pitcher FIP 7.9

Season HR Rate 6.4

HR/FB Matchup 4.9

Avg Exit Velo 4.3

Park Factor 2.7

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0

2026-05-25 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6342 · +0.0006 lift vs baseline · 7,142 matchups · 8 features

Show full weight vector (8 features)

ISO 18.5

Barrel% 16.1

Park Factor 6.2

HR/FB Matchup 4.7

Pitcher FIP 4.5

Avg Exit Velo 2.1

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

2026-05-18 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6431 · -0.0018 lift vs baseline · 6,865 matchups · 8 features

Show full weight vector (8 features)

ISO 18.6

Barrel% 17.2

Park Factor 6.7

Pitcher FIP 5.0

HR/FB Matchup 3.2

Avg Exit Velo 1.3

Pull% 0.0

FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0

2026-05-12 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6228 · -0.0149 lift vs baseline · 6,696 matchups · 8 features

Show full weight vector (8 features)

Barrel% 19.2

ISO 18.1

Park Factor 8.1

Avg Exit Velo 2.7

FIP–xFIP Gap 2.5

HR/FB Matchup 0.9

Pull% 0.5

Pitcher FIP 0.0

2026-05-02 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6237 · -0.0339 lift vs baseline · 6,696 matchups · 8 features

Show full weight vector (8 features)

Barrel% 17.1

ISO 16.0

Park Factor 12.7

Avg Exit Velo 2.6

FIP–xFIP Gap 2.1

HR/FB Matchup 1.2

Pull% 0.3

Pitcher FIP 0.0

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How the model's weights changed over time.

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