2026
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15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Alonso 8 HRs · 2 Brandon Lowe 6 HRs · 3 Nolan Arenado 5 HRs · 4 Cole Carrigg 4 HRs · 5 Vinnie Pasquantino 4 HRs · 6 Isaac Paredes 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Elly De La Cruz 4 HRs · 9 Cody Bellinger 3 HRs · 10 Austin Wells 3 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 3 HRs · 12 Munetaka Murakami 3 HRs 1 Pete Alonso 8 HRs · 2 Brandon Lowe 6 HRs · 3 Nolan Arenado 5 HRs · 4 Cole Carrigg 4 HRs · 5 Vinnie Pasquantino 4 HRs · 6 Isaac Paredes 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Elly De La Cruz 4 HRs · 9 Cody Bellinger 3 HRs · 10 Austin Wells 3 HRs · 11 Manny Machado 3 HRs · 12 Munetaka Murakami 3 HRs
Model transparency

How the model's weights changed over time.

Every time the weekly optimizer runs, it logs the proposed weights, the out-of-sample AUC, and whether the result actually shipped. This is that record — straight from the optimizer's audit trail, not a marketing recap.

v3.5
Live version
0
Versions shipped
102
Optimizer runs logged

The optimizer fits an L2 logistic regression on every scored matchup, then proposes new weights. A run only ships if its AUC lift clears the guardrail and it doesn't lose home runs in the top-N capture check — so most runs are logged as proposed, not applied. The per-feature deltas below compare each shipped version against the previous shipped version.

2026-09-28 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6129 · +0.0027 lift vs baseline · 34,036 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 15.3
Barrel% 14.8
Avg Exit Velo 8.8
Park Factor 4.8
Pitcher FIP 4.6
Recent HR Density (14d) 3.4
HR/FB Matchup 0.1
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-09-27 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6156 · +0.0017 lift vs baseline · 33,781 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 15.3
Barrel% 15.2
Avg Exit Velo 8.9
Park Factor 4.7
Pitcher FIP 4.6
Recent HR Density (14d) 3.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-09-26 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6172 · +0.0009 lift vs baseline · 33,564 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 15.5
Barrel% 15.1
Avg Exit Velo 8.9
Park Factor 4.8
Pitcher FIP 4.6
Recent HR Density (14d) 3.1
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-09-25 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6142 · +0.0010 lift vs baseline · 33,289 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 15.8
Barrel% 14.6
Avg Exit Velo 8.7
Pitcher FIP 5.0
Park Factor 4.6
Recent HR Density (14d) 3.2
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-09-24 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6144 · +0.0014 lift vs baseline · 33,088 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 15.8
Barrel% 14.6
Avg Exit Velo 8.7
Pitcher FIP 5.0
Park Factor 4.6
Recent HR Density (14d) 3.2
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-09-23 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6103 · -0.0005 lift vs baseline · 32,829 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 15.3
Barrel% 15.2
Avg Exit Velo 8.8
Pitcher FIP 5.2
Park Factor 4.5
Recent HR Density (14d) 3.0
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-09-22 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6066 · +0.0005 lift vs baseline · 32,578 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
Barrel% 15.3
ISO 15.2
Avg Exit Velo 9.2
Pitcher FIP 4.9
Park Factor 4.6
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.8
HR/FB Matchup 0.1
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-09-21 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6090 · +0.0004 lift vs baseline · 32,534 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 15.9
Barrel% 14.9
Avg Exit Velo 8.9
Pitcher FIP 5.0
Park Factor 4.7
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.6
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-09-20 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6105 · +0.0017 lift vs baseline · 32,278 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 15.9
Barrel% 14.8
Avg Exit Velo 8.8
Pitcher FIP 5.2
Park Factor 4.7
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.5
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-09-19 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6111 · +0.0014 lift vs baseline · 32,028 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 15.9
Barrel% 14.8
Avg Exit Velo 8.8
Pitcher FIP 5.2
Park Factor 4.7
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.5
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-09-18 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6066 · +0.0025 lift vs baseline · 31,786 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 15.6
Barrel% 15.2
Avg Exit Velo 8.7
Pitcher FIP 5.1
Park Factor 4.8
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.2
Season HR Rate 0.4
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-17 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6080 · +0.0040 lift vs baseline · 31,634 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 16.1
Barrel% 15.1
Avg Exit Velo 8.3
Pitcher FIP 5.0
Park Factor 4.9
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.0
Season HR Rate 0.5
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-16 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6094 · +0.0045 lift vs baseline · 31,384 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 16.0
Barrel% 15.8
Avg Exit Velo 8.1
Park Factor 4.9
Pitcher FIP 4.7
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.9
Season HR Rate 0.6
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-14 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6072 · +0.0025 lift vs baseline · 30,972 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 16.7
Barrel% 15.3
Avg Exit Velo 8.3
Park Factor 4.8
Pitcher FIP 4.6
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.7
Season HR Rate 0.6
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-13 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6101 · +0.0026 lift vs baseline · 30,715 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 16.8
Barrel% 15.0
Avg Exit Velo 8.4
Park Factor 4.7
Pitcher FIP 4.5
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.9
Season HR Rate 0.7
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-12 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6086 · +0.0020 lift vs baseline · 30,463 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.0
Barrel% 14.8
Avg Exit Velo 8.0
Park Factor 4.8
Pitcher FIP 4.7
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.0
Season HR Rate 0.8
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-11 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6045 · +0.0016 lift vs baseline · 30,218 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 16.7
Barrel% 14.7
Avg Exit Velo 8.1
Park Factor 4.9
Pitcher FIP 4.5
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.0
Season HR Rate 1.1
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-10 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6028 · -0.0001 lift vs baseline · 30,133 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 16.2
Barrel% 15.6
Avg Exit Velo 7.9
Park Factor 4.6
Pitcher FIP 4.5
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.9
Season HR Rate 1.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-09 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5986 · -0.0011 lift vs baseline · 29,875 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 16.2
Barrel% 15.6
Avg Exit Velo 7.9
Park Factor 4.6
Pitcher FIP 4.5
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.9
Season HR Rate 1.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-08 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5971 · -0.0029 lift vs baseline · 29,635 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 16.9
Barrel% 15.2
Avg Exit Velo 7.8
Pitcher FIP 4.5
Park Factor 4.5
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.2
Season HR Rate 1.0
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-07 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5969 · -0.0015 lift vs baseline · 29,461 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 16.6
Barrel% 15.6
Avg Exit Velo 7.5
Pitcher FIP 4.5
Park Factor 4.5
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.1
Season HR Rate 1.1
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-06 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6002 · -0.0021 lift vs baseline · 29,206 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.3
Barrel% 15.0
Avg Exit Velo 7.6
Park Factor 4.6
Pitcher FIP 4.4
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.4
Season HR Rate 0.6
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-05 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6005 · -0.0039 lift vs baseline · 28,954 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.7
Barrel% 14.8
Avg Exit Velo 7.7
Park Factor 4.6
Pitcher FIP 4.3
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.6
Season HR Rate 0.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-04 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6027 · -0.0045 lift vs baseline · 28,698 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.7
Barrel% 14.8
Avg Exit Velo 7.7
Park Factor 4.6
Pitcher FIP 4.3
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.6
Season HR Rate 0.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-03 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6002 · -0.0047 lift vs baseline · 28,551 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.3
Barrel% 15.0
Avg Exit Velo 7.7
Pitcher FIP 4.5
Park Factor 4.4
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.8
Season HR Rate 0.4
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-02 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6025 · -0.0062 lift vs baseline · 28,306 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.3
Barrel% 15.3
Avg Exit Velo 7.4
Pitcher FIP 4.7
Park Factor 4.6
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.5
Season HR Rate 0.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-09-01 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6016 · -0.0062 lift vs baseline · 28,060 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.4
Barrel% 14.9
Avg Exit Velo 7.2
Pitcher FIP 4.7
Park Factor 4.6
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.9
Season HR Rate 0.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-08-31 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5974 · -0.0049 lift vs baseline · 27,865 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.2
Barrel% 14.6
Avg Exit Velo 7.5
Pitcher FIP 4.9
Park Factor 4.7
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.8
Season HR Rate 0.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-08-30 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5976 · -0.0044 lift vs baseline · 27,625 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.2
Barrel% 14.6
Avg Exit Velo 7.5
Pitcher FIP 4.9
Park Factor 4.7
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.8
Season HR Rate 0.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-08-29 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5899 · -0.0052 lift vs baseline · 27,353 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.4
Barrel% 13.9
Avg Exit Velo 7.6
Pitcher FIP 5.2
Park Factor 4.6
Recent HR Density (14d) 3.0
Season HR Rate 0.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-08-28 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5851 · -0.0069 lift vs baseline · 27,111 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.9
Barrel% 13.4
Avg Exit Velo 7.9
Pitcher FIP 5.4
Park Factor 4.5
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.6
Season HR Rate 0.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-08-27 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5836 · -0.0072 lift vs baseline · 26,997 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.6
Barrel% 13.5
Avg Exit Velo 8.4
Pitcher FIP 5.3
Park Factor 4.5
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.1
Season HR Rate 0.7
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-08-26 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5863 · -0.0056 lift vs baseline · 26,744 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.5
Barrel% 14.4
Avg Exit Velo 8.3
Pitcher FIP 5.3
Park Factor 4.4
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.0
Season HR Rate 0.1
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-08-25 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5867 · -0.0039 lift vs baseline · 26,510 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.5
Barrel% 14.4
Avg Exit Velo 8.3
Pitcher FIP 5.3
Park Factor 4.4
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.0
Season HR Rate 0.1
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-08-24 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5880 · -0.0038 lift vs baseline · 26,361 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.6
Barrel% 13.9
Avg Exit Velo 8.3
Pitcher FIP 5.4
Park Factor 4.4
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.2
Season HR Rate 0.2
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-08-23 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5919 · +0.0003 lift vs baseline · 26,110 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.6
Barrel% 14.0
Avg Exit Velo 8.0
Pitcher FIP 5.6
Park Factor 4.4
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-08-22 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5988 · -0.0020 lift vs baseline · 25,861 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 18.0
Barrel% 13.3
Avg Exit Velo 8.2
Pitcher FIP 5.9
Park Factor 4.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.6
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-08-21 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5918 · -0.0033 lift vs baseline · 25,616 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.6
Barrel% 13.6
Avg Exit Velo 8.2
Pitcher FIP 6.1
Park Factor 4.2
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.2
Season HR Rate 0.1
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-08-20 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5904 · -0.0044 lift vs baseline · 25,467 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.7
Barrel% 13.5
Avg Exit Velo 8.2
Pitcher FIP 6.1
Park Factor 4.2
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.3
Season HR Rate 0.1
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-08-19 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5930 · -0.0050 lift vs baseline · 25,212 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.7
Barrel% 13.8
Avg Exit Velo 7.9
Pitcher FIP 5.9
Park Factor 4.5
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-08-18 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5888 · -0.0080 lift vs baseline · 24,962 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.7
Barrel% 13.8
Avg Exit Velo 8.1
Pitcher FIP 5.9
Park Factor 4.2
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.2
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-08-17 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5883 · -0.0091 lift vs baseline · 24,780 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.7
Barrel% 13.7
Avg Exit Velo 8.2
Pitcher FIP 6.0
Park Factor 4.2
Recent HR Density (14d) 2.1
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-08-16 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5857 · -0.0090 lift vs baseline · 24,530 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 18.1
Barrel% 14.0
Avg Exit Velo 8.5
Pitcher FIP 6.1
Park Factor 4.1
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.2
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-08-15 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5851 · -0.0093 lift vs baseline · 24,285 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 18.1
Barrel% 14.0
Avg Exit Velo 8.5
Pitcher FIP 6.1
Park Factor 4.1
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.2
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-08-14 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5785 · -0.0104 lift vs baseline · 24,060 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 18.1
Barrel% 13.7
Avg Exit Velo 8.9
Pitcher FIP 6.2
Park Factor 4.3
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.8
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-08-13 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5819 · -0.0092 lift vs baseline · 23,913 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.9
Barrel% 13.7
Avg Exit Velo 9.0
Pitcher FIP 6.3
Park Factor 4.5
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.7
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-08-12 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5780 · -0.0113 lift vs baseline · 23,678 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 18.3
Barrel% 13.4
Avg Exit Velo 9.2
Pitcher FIP 5.7
Park Factor 4.3
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.1
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-08-10 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5728 · -0.0172 lift vs baseline · 23,309 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 18.6
Barrel% 13.7
Avg Exit Velo 9.2
Pitcher FIP 5.7
Park Factor 4.3
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.5
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-08-09 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5648 · -0.0162 lift vs baseline · 23,068 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 18.3
Barrel% 13.7
Avg Exit Velo 9.4
Pitcher FIP 5.8
Park Factor 4.3
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.5
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-08-08 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5622 · -0.0167 lift vs baseline · 22,821 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.0
Barrel% 13.9
Avg Exit Velo 8.8
Pitcher FIP 5.7
Park Factor 4.5
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-08-07 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5620 · -0.0184 lift vs baseline · 22,589 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.2
Barrel% 13.7
Avg Exit Velo 8.9
Pitcher FIP 5.8
Park Factor 4.5
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-08-06 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5585 · -0.0142 lift vs baseline · 22,413 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.1
Barrel% 13.8
Avg Exit Velo 9.0
Pitcher FIP 5.5
Park Factor 4.5
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-08-05 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5597 · -0.0142 lift vs baseline · 22,180 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.1
Barrel% 13.8
Avg Exit Velo 9.0
Pitcher FIP 5.5
Park Factor 4.5
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-08-04 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5659 · -0.0170 lift vs baseline · 21,948 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.0
Barrel% 14.0
Avg Exit Velo 9.0
Pitcher FIP 5.4
Park Factor 4.4
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.1
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-08-03 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5764 · -0.0110 lift vs baseline · 21,826 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.0
Barrel% 15.0
Avg Exit Velo 8.3
Pitcher FIP 5.2
Park Factor 4.4
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-08-02 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5851 · -0.0030 lift vs baseline · 21,576 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.1
Barrel% 15.2
Avg Exit Velo 7.9
Pitcher FIP 5.0
Park Factor 4.8
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-08-01 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5867 · -0.0050 lift vs baseline · 21,337 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.1
Barrel% 15.2
Avg Exit Velo 7.7
Pitcher FIP 5.2
Park Factor 4.8
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.1
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-31 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5817 · -0.0026 lift vs baseline · 21,096 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.1
Barrel% 15.2
Avg Exit Velo 7.7
Pitcher FIP 5.2
Park Factor 4.8
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.1
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-30 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5765 · -0.0019 lift vs baseline · 20,938 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.7
Barrel% 14.7
Avg Exit Velo 7.1
Pitcher FIP 5.0
Park Factor 4.8
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.6
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-28 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5711 · +0.0015 lift vs baseline · 20,416 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.3
Barrel% 14.2
Avg Exit Velo 7.1
Pitcher FIP 5.0
Park Factor 4.8
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.6
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-27 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5780 · +0.0053 lift vs baseline · 20,220 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.1
Barrel% 14.2
Avg Exit Velo 6.9
Pitcher FIP 5.4
Park Factor 4.8
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.6
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-26 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5759 · +0.0075 lift vs baseline · 19,975 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.1
Barrel% 14.3
Avg Exit Velo 6.9
Pitcher FIP 5.4
Park Factor 4.8
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.6
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-25 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5778 · +0.0043 lift vs baseline · 19,724 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.2
Barrel% 14.8
Avg Exit Velo 6.4
Pitcher FIP 5.4
Park Factor 4.6
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.6
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-24 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5701 · +0.0040 lift vs baseline · 19,476 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.2
Barrel% 14.4
Avg Exit Velo 6.7
Pitcher FIP 5.6
Park Factor 4.4
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.7
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-23 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5699 · +0.0046 lift vs baseline · 19,393 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.3
Barrel% 14.6
Avg Exit Velo 6.7
Pitcher FIP 6.1
Park Factor 4.2
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.0
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-22 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5811 · +0.0050 lift vs baseline · 19,117 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.7
Barrel% 14.5
Avg Exit Velo 6.5
Pitcher FIP 6.3
Park Factor 4.4
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.7
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-21 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5758 · +0.0017 lift vs baseline · 18,879 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.7
Barrel% 14.5
Avg Exit Velo 6.5
Pitcher FIP 6.3
Park Factor 4.4
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.7
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-20 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5817 · +0.0066 lift vs baseline · 18,637 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.6
Barrel% 14.8
Pitcher FIP 6.3
Avg Exit Velo 6.0
Park Factor 4.7
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.6
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-19 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5847 · +0.0084 lift vs baseline · 18,374 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.5
Barrel% 15.2
Avg Exit Velo 6.0
Pitcher FIP 6.0
Park Factor 4.6
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.7
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-18 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5912 · +0.0053 lift vs baseline · 18,109 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.3
Barrel% 15.6
Avg Exit Velo 5.7
Pitcher FIP 5.7
Park Factor 4.7
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.0
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-17 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5944 · +0.0084 lift vs baseline · 17,872 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.7
Barrel% 15.4
Avg Exit Velo 5.7
Pitcher FIP 5.0
Park Factor 4.8
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-13 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5951 · +0.0086 lift vs baseline · 17,857 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.8
Barrel% 15.3
Avg Exit Velo 5.7
Pitcher FIP 5.0
Park Factor 4.8
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-12 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6061 · +0.0084 lift vs baseline · 17,617 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.7
Barrel% 15.5
Avg Exit Velo 5.8
Pitcher FIP 5.3
Park Factor 4.7
Recent HR Density (14d) 1.0
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
2026-07-11 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6030 · +0.0092 lift vs baseline · 17,354 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 20.0
Barrel% 16.1
Pitcher FIP 5.7
Avg Exit Velo 5.4
Park Factor 4.7
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Season HR Rate 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-07-10 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5930 · +0.0087 lift vs baseline · 17,117 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 20.1
Barrel% 15.9
Pitcher FIP 5.7
Avg Exit Velo 5.5
Park Factor 4.5
Season HR Rate 0.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-07-09 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5917 · +0.0073 lift vs baseline · 16,910 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 20.2
Barrel% 15.7
Pitcher FIP 5.7
Avg Exit Velo 5.2
Park Factor 4.6
HR/FB Matchup 0.3
Season HR Rate 0.3
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-07-08 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5889 · +0.0076 lift vs baseline · 16,666 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 20.0
Barrel% 15.9
Pitcher FIP 5.6
Avg Exit Velo 5.2
Park Factor 4.6
Season HR Rate 0.4
HR/FB Matchup 0.3
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-07-07 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5892 · +0.0046 lift vs baseline · 16,407 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.7
Barrel% 15.8
Pitcher FIP 6.2
Avg Exit Velo 4.3
Park Factor 4.3
Season HR Rate 1.5
HR/FB Matchup 0.2
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-07-06 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5949 · +0.0060 lift vs baseline · 16,284 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.8
Barrel% 15.8
Pitcher FIP 6.2
Avg Exit Velo 4.8
Park Factor 4.4
HR/FB Matchup 0.5
Season HR Rate 0.5
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-07-05 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5932 · +0.0043 lift vs baseline · 16,047 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.6
Barrel% 15.3
Pitcher FIP 6.5
Avg Exit Velo 5.0
Park Factor 4.3
Season HR Rate 0.8
HR/FB Matchup 0.4
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-07-04 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5909 · +0.0037 lift vs baseline · 15,811 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.5
Barrel% 14.6
Pitcher FIP 6.2
Avg Exit Velo 5.6
Park Factor 4.3
Season HR Rate 1.2
HR/FB Matchup 0.5
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-07-03 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5881 · +0.0049 lift vs baseline · 15,601 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.3
Barrel% 14.7
Pitcher FIP 6.3
Avg Exit Velo 5.5
Park Factor 4.3
Season HR Rate 1.3
HR/FB Matchup 0.6
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-07-02 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5953 · +0.0053 lift vs baseline · 15,458 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.2
Barrel% 14.6
Avg Exit Velo 5.7
Pitcher FIP 5.6
Park Factor 4.2
Season HR Rate 1.4
HR/FB Matchup 1.3
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-07-01 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5995 · +0.0049 lift vs baseline · 15,241 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 18.2
Barrel% 14.8
Pitcher FIP 5.9
Avg Exit Velo 5.6
Park Factor 3.9
Season HR Rate 2.3
HR/FB Matchup 1.5
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-30 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5914 · +0.0038 lift vs baseline · 15,010 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.8
Barrel% 14.7
Avg Exit Velo 5.5
Pitcher FIP 5.4
Park Factor 3.9
Season HR Rate 3.2
HR/FB Matchup 1.6
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-29 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5847 · -0.0009 lift vs baseline · 14,809 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 17.9
Barrel% 14.0
Avg Exit Velo 5.6
Pitcher FIP 5.1
Season HR Rate 4.3
Park Factor 3.7
HR/FB Matchup 1.3
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-28 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5797 · -0.0005 lift vs baseline · 14,575 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 18.2
Barrel% 13.8
Avg Exit Velo 5.7
Pitcher FIP 5.2
Season HR Rate 4.1
Park Factor 3.7
HR/FB Matchup 1.2
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-27 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5813 · -0.0002 lift vs baseline · 14,340 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 18.6
Barrel% 14.2
Avg Exit Velo 5.9
Pitcher FIP 5.5
Park Factor 3.8
Season HR Rate 3.4
HR/FB Matchup 0.5
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-26 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5923 · +0.0022 lift vs baseline · 14,102 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.5
Barrel% 14.0
Avg Exit Velo 6.5
Pitcher FIP 5.8
Park Factor 4.4
Season HR Rate 1.2
HR/FB Matchup 0.6
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-25 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5874 · +0.0011 lift vs baseline · 13,962 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.8
Barrel% 13.0
Avg Exit Velo 6.5
Pitcher FIP 6.2
Park Factor 4.1
Season HR Rate 1.7
HR/FB Matchup 0.7
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-24 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5955 · +0.0019 lift vs baseline · 13,712 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.3
Barrel% 12.7
Avg Exit Velo 6.6
Pitcher FIP 6.3
Park Factor 4.1
HR/FB Matchup 1.9
Season HR Rate 1.1
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-23 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6058 · +0.0010 lift vs baseline · 13,481 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 19.2
Barrel% 12.7
Avg Exit Velo 6.6
Pitcher FIP 6.3
Park Factor 4.1
HR/FB Matchup 1.9
Season HR Rate 1.3
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-22 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6170 · +0.0022 lift vs baseline · 13,272 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 18.7
Barrel% 13.5
Pitcher FIP 6.0
Avg Exit Velo 5.0
Park Factor 4.3
HR/FB Matchup 2.3
Season HR Rate 2.2
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-19 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6106 · -0.0008 lift vs baseline · 12,617 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 18.5
Barrel% 12.4
Pitcher FIP 6.3
Avg Exit Velo 4.4
Park Factor 4.1
Season HR Rate 3.7
HR/FB Matchup 2.7
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-16 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6151 · -0.0010 lift vs baseline · 12,029 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 16.9
Barrel% 12.4
Pitcher FIP 6.4
Season HR Rate 4.5
Park Factor 4.4
Avg Exit Velo 4.0
HR/FB Matchup 3.4
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-15 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6049 · -0.0006 lift vs baseline · 11,885 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 15.9
Barrel% 12.2
Season HR Rate 6.3
Pitcher FIP 6.1
Avg Exit Velo 4.6
Park Factor 3.9
HR/FB Matchup 3.0
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-09 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5794 · -0.0074 lift vs baseline · 10,619 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 16.6
Barrel% 9.0
Pitcher FIP 7.9
Season HR Rate 6.6
HR/FB Matchup 5.0
Avg Exit Velo 4.2
Park Factor 2.7
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-06-08 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.5781 · -0.0070 lift vs baseline · 10,496 matchups · 10 features

Show full weight vector (10 features)
ISO 16.8
Barrel% 8.9
Pitcher FIP 7.9
Season HR Rate 6.4
HR/FB Matchup 4.9
Avg Exit Velo 4.3
Park Factor 2.7
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
Recent HR Density (14d) 0.0
2026-05-25 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6342 · +0.0006 lift vs baseline · 7,142 matchups · 8 features

Show full weight vector (8 features)
ISO 18.5
Barrel% 16.1
Park Factor 6.2
HR/FB Matchup 4.7
Pitcher FIP 4.5
Avg Exit Velo 2.1
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-05-18 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6431 · -0.0018 lift vs baseline · 6,865 matchups · 8 features

Show full weight vector (8 features)
ISO 18.6
Barrel% 17.2
Park Factor 6.7
Pitcher FIP 5.0
HR/FB Matchup 3.2
Avg Exit Velo 1.3
Pull% 0.0
FIP–xFIP Gap 0.0
2026-05-12 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6228 · -0.0149 lift vs baseline · 6,696 matchups · 8 features

Show full weight vector (8 features)
Barrel% 19.2
ISO 18.1
Park Factor 8.1
Avg Exit Velo 2.7
FIP–xFIP Gap 2.5
HR/FB Matchup 0.9
Pull% 0.5
Pitcher FIP 0.0
2026-05-02 Proposed · not shipped

Test AUC 0.6237 · -0.0339 lift vs baseline · 6,696 matchups · 8 features

Show full weight vector (8 features)
Barrel% 17.1
ISO 16.0
Park Factor 12.7
Avg Exit Velo 2.6
FIP–xFIP Gap 2.1
HR/FB Matchup 1.2
Pull% 0.3
Pitcher FIP 0.0
How scoring works Performance methodology View track record
THR 3.3.177 · build 679
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