2026
Pricing
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Results

How the model performed — daily scorecards and season trends.
182 days tracked
Data Provenance Warning
No matching slate file is available for this results date, so the picks cannot be independently verified from local artifacts.
30
HRs Hit
0/5
Top-5 · 0.0%
2/15
Top-15 · 13.3%
46.0vs 43.1
Avg Score: HR vs Miss
Home Runs · 2026-09-27
30 HRs by model picks · best call: #13
#13
Christian Walker vs Seth Johnson · Sutter Health Park
64 🔵 C+
Barrel 10.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.1Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.1 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.68Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.68 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.66FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.254Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 25.4% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🔥 HOTHot streak — batter has multiple HRs or barrels in the last 7 days of Statcast data.
100.1mph 31.0° 386ft
#15
Randal Grichuk vs Kyle Freeland · Rate Field
62 🔵 C+
Barrel 10.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.275Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.275 is elite.EV 91.5Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.5 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 5.02Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.02 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.91FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.057Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 5.7% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.
111.5mph 20.0° 408ft
#19
Andrés Chaparro vs Sean Manaea · Nationals Park
59 🟠 C
Barrel 11.4%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.236Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.236 is above average.EV 89.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.50Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.50 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.149Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 14.9% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.
103.9mph 24.0° 389ft
#29
Griffin Conine vs JR Ritchie · loanDepot Park
56 🟠 C
Barrel 11.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.225Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.225 is above average.EV 90.9Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.9 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 5.62Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.62 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.84FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.
110.2mph 34.0° 415ft
#35
Corey Seager vs Dean Kremer · Target Field
55 🟠 C
Barrel 11.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.7Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.7 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.94Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.94 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +1.00FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.
104.0mph 37.0° 387ft
#42
Bryce Harper vs Nick Martinez · Citizens Bank Park
54 🟠 C
Barrel 8.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.215Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.215 is above average.EV 90.0Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.0 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.03Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.03 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.076Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 7.6% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.
111.6mph 20.0° 366ft
#51
Cole Carrigg vs Anthony Kay · Rate Field
52 🟠 C
Barrel 6.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.86Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.86 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.057Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 5.7% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🔥 HOTHot streak — batter has multiple HRs or barrels in the last 7 days of Statcast data.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.
102.4mph 28.0° 360ft
#59
Francisco Lindor vs WSH Bullpen Proxy · Nationals Park
54 🟠 C
Barrel 8.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.74Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.74 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.149Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 14.9% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.
110.8mph 22.0° 409ft
#63
Heriberto Hernández vs JR Ritchie · loanDepot Park
50 🟠 C
Barrel 10.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.205Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.205 is above average.EV 91.3Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.3 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 5.62Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.62 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.84FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.
105.0mph 28.0° 395ft
#68
Jo Adell vs Daniel Lynch IV · Kauffman Stadium
49 ⚪ D
Barrel 7.7%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.3Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.3 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.38Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.38 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.055Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 5.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.
112.0mph 24.0° 440ft
#79
Eduardo Valencia vs Jared Jones · Comerica Park
47 ⚪ D
Barrel 10.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.267Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.267 is elite.EV 89.8Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.8 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.
109.8mph 29.0° 443ft
#82
Edmundo Sosa vs Nick Martinez · Citizens Bank Park
47 ⚪ D
Barrel 7.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.03Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.03 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.076Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 7.6% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🔥 HOTHot streak — batter has multiple HRs or barrels in the last 7 days of Statcast data.
98.0mph 25.0° 351ft
#86
Adley Rutschman vs Shota Imanaga · Tropicana Field
47 ⚪ D
Barrel 8.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.50Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.50 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.75FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.055Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 5.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.
103.2mph 32.0° 402ft
#90
Andy Pages vs Carson Seymour · Oracle Park
46 ⚪ D
Barrel 8.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 6.12Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 6.12 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +1.23FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.
102.8mph 26.0° 399ft
#92
Vinnie Pasquantino vs Parker Messick · Kauffman Stadium
46 ⚪ D
Barrel 6.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.0Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.0 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.Park 1.055Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 5.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🔥 HOTHot streak — batter has multiple HRs or barrels in the last 7 days of Statcast data.
104.2mph 28.0° 378ft
#107
Brenton Doyle vs Kyle Freeland · Rate Field
45 ⚪ D
Barrel 8.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 5.02Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.02 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.91FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.057Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 5.7% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.
93.8mph 29.0° 345ft
#119
Ronny Mauricio vs WSH Bullpen Proxy · Nationals Park
47 ⚪ D
Barrel 9.1%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.1Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.1 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.74Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.74 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.149Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 14.9% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.
107.5mph 37.0° 410ft
#124
Josh Bell vs MacKenzie Gore · Target Field
43 ⚪ D
Barrel 9.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.8Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.8 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.
102.9mph 25.0° 366ft
#131
Alex Bregman vs BOS Bullpen Proxy · Tropicana Field
46 ⚪ D
Barrel 6.1%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.Park 1.055Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 5.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.
102.6mph 28.0° 402ft
#136
Gary Sánchez vs Andre Pallante · American Family Field
42 ⚪ D
Barrel 6.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.205Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.205 is above average.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.
100.7mph 31.0° 355ft
#140
Royce Lewis vs MacKenzie Gore · Target Field
42 ⚪ D
Barrel 9.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.7Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.7 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.
105.2mph 22.0° 412ft
#145
Danny Jansen vs Dean Kremer · Target Field
41 ⚪ D
Barrel 7.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.94Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.94 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +1.00FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.
98.3mph 31.0° 385ft
#147
Brandon Valenzuela vs Brandon Williamson · Rogers Centre
41 ⚪ D
Barrel 7.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 5.79Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.79 signals HR vulnerability.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.
101.7mph 26.0° 409ft
#156
Daniel Schneemann vs Daniel Lynch IV · Kauffman Stadium
40 ⚪ D
Barrel 7.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.38Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.38 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.055Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 5.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.
103.2mph 27.0° 380ft
#176
Jonny DeLuca vs Zack Wheeler · Citizens Bank Park
38 ⚪ D
Barrel 4.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.Park 1.076Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 7.6% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.
97.7mph 30.0° 374ft
#181
Gavin Sheets vs Michael Soroka · Petco Park
37 ⚪ D
Barrel 7.4%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.
105.9mph 24.0° 423ft
#189
Charles McAdoo vs Brandon Williamson · Rogers Centre
37 ⚪ D
Barrel 6.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 5.79Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.79 signals HR vulnerability.
108.6mph 26.0° 446ft
#196
Kevin McGonigle vs Jared Jones · Comerica Park
35 ⚪ D
Barrel 7.4%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.
100.6mph 32.0° 393ft
#235
Mauricio Dubón vs Janson Junk · loanDepot Park
28 ⚪ D
Barrel 5.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.19Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.19 signals HR vulnerability.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.
101.8mph 32.0° 385ft
#237
Konnor Griffin vs DET Bullpen Proxy · Comerica Park
31 ⚪ D
Barrel 6.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.08Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.08 signals HR vulnerability.
101.8mph 22.0° 385ft
Catch Rates
257 scored matchups
Top 5
0/5
0.0%
Top 10
0/10
0.0%
Top 15
2/15
13.3%
Top 25
3/25
12.0%
Tier Accuracy
HR rate per tier today
AboveAvg
0/4
0.0%
Value
2/15
13.3%
BelowAvg
7/46
15.2%
Below
21/192
10.9%
Higher tiers should hit more often. A clear gradient = healthy model.
Season Trends
Daily Top-15 Catch Rate
verified pre-game slates only
Cumulative Catch Rate by Tier
verified pre-game slates only · 2026
THR 3.3.180 · build 681
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