Results
How the model performed — daily scorecards and season trends.
26
HRs Hit
0/5
Top-5 · 0.0%
1/15
Top-15 · 6.7%
46.7vs 42.9
Avg Score: HR vs Miss
Home Runs · 2026-08-28
Barrel 10.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.226Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.226 is above average.EV 91.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.57Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.57 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.205Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 20.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.🛑 Wind In 3mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.🌡️ 86°FHot game-time temperature (86°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.🔥 BP 15.4%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 15.4% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.9mph
31.0°
445ft
Barrel 11.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 5.54Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.54 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.93FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.069Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 6.9% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🌡️ 89°FHot game-time temperature (89°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.⚠️ BP 13.7%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.7% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
97.1mph
38.0°
351ft
Barrel 9.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.210Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.210 is above average.EV 90.1Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.1 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.08Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.08 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.072Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 7.2% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.💨 Wind Out 1mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 16.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 16.2% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
101.9mph
24.0°
382ft
Barrel 9.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.213Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.213 is above average.FIP 5.28Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.28 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +1.45FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.🛑 Wind In 4mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.⚠️ BP 12.1%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.1% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
98.2mph
30.0°
374ft
Barrel 10.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.222Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.222 is above average.EV 92.4Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 92.4 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.78Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.78 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.57FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.🛑 Wind In 4mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.⚠️ BP 12.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.2% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
101.7mph
37.0°
380ft
Barrel 8.4%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.18Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.18 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.066Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 6.6% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.💨 Wind Out 12mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.
106.5mph
32.0°
430ft
Barrel 9.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.7Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.7 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.Park 1.075Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 7.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚠️ BP 13.4%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.4% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
104.4mph
29.0°
425ft
Barrel 9.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.8Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.8 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.70Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.70 signals HR vulnerability.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚠️ BP 13.1%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.1% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
97.8mph
27.0°
367ft
Barrel 9.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.74Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.74 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.072Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 7.2% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.💨 Wind Out 1mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 13.4%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.4% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
102.5mph
27.0°
374ft
Barrel 10.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.207Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.207 is above average.EV 90.5Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.5 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.💨 Wind Out 5mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 13.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.8mph
23.0°
400ft
Barrel 11.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 92.5Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 92.5 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 5.55Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.55 signals HR vulnerability.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.💨 Wind Out 8mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 12.0%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.0% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
107.8mph
22.0°
381ft
Barrel 10.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.Park 1.205Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 20.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.🛑 Wind In 3mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.🌡️ 86°FHot game-time temperature (86°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.
110.9mph
28.0°
445ft
Barrel 6.1%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.78Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.78 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.57FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.🔥 HOTHot streak — batter has multiple HRs or barrels in the last 7 days of Statcast data.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.🛑 Wind In 4mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.⚠️ BP 12.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.2% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
103.4mph
38.0°
380ft
Barrel 9.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.Park 1.205Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 20.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🛑 Wind In 3mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.🌡️ 86°FHot game-time temperature (86°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.
100.2mph
31.0°
393ft
Barrel 7.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.7Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.7 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.Park 1.075Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 7.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.⚠️ BP 12.4%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.4% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
103.0mph
27.0°
371ft
Barrel 8.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.1Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.1 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.08Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.08 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.072Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 7.2% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.💨 Wind Out 1mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 16.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 16.2% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
103.0mph
30.0°
399ft
Barrel 7.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.221Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.221 is above average.EV 91.2Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.2 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.💨 Wind Out 5mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 12.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.2% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
112.8mph
23.0°
433ft
Barrel 6.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.5Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.5 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.74Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.74 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.072Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 7.2% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.💨 Wind Out 1mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 13.4%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.4% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
104.2mph
30.0°
390ft
Barrel 8.7%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.236Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.236 is above average.EV 91.8Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.8 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.💨 Wind Out 8mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.
106.4mph
22.0°
419ft
Barrel 5.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.Park 1.075Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 7.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.⚠️ BP 12.4%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.4% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
94.3mph
33.0°
360ft
Barrel 7.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.💨 Wind Out 5mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 13.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
102.1mph
30.0°
416ft
Barrel 3.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.08Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.08 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.072Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 7.2% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.💨 Wind Out 1mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 16.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 16.2% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
102.8mph
28.0°
395ft
Barrel 6.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.🛑 Wind In 3mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.
103.3mph
32.0°
395ft
Barrel 8.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.23Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.23 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.54FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.🛑 Wind In 7mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.🌡️ 85°FHot game-time temperature (85°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.⚠️ BP 12.3%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.3% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
104.9mph
28.0°
416ft
Barrel 7.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.7Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.7 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.💨 Wind Out 8mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.
99.8mph
31.0°
379ft
Barrel 3.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.💨 Wind Out 5mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 13.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
101.5mph
29.0°
379ft
Catch Rates
Top 5
0/5
Top 10
1/10
Top 15
1/15
Top 25
2/25
Tier Accuracy
AboveAvg
0/4
Value
2/17
BelowAvg
8/40
Below
16/183
Season Trends
Daily Top-15 Catch Rate
Cumulative Catch Rate by Tier