Results
How the model performed — daily scorecards and season trends.
28
HRs Hit
2/5
Top-5 · 40.0%
3/15
Top-15 · 20.0%
44.1vs 43.1
Avg Score: HR vs Miss
Home Runs · 2026-07-12
Barrel 16.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.248Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.248 is above average.EV 93.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 93.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.55Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.55 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.216Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 21.6% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.💨 Wind Out 5.1mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 13.9%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.9% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
111.8mph
33.0°
437ft
Barrel 12.7%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.274Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.274 is elite.EV 95.0Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 95.0 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.Park 1.079Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 7.9% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.💨 Wind Out 5.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 12.1%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.1% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
110.0mph
26.0°
434ft
Barrel 11.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.209Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.209 is above average.EV 91.4Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.4 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.49Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.49 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.169Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 16.9% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚠️ BP 14.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 14.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
105.0mph
22.0°
404ft
Barrel 13.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.228Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.228 is above average.EV 91.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 5.44Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.44 signals HR vulnerability.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚠️ BP 12.3%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.3% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
105.1mph
29.0°
411ft
Barrel 10.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.09Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.09 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.66FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.082Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 8.2% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🔥 HOTHot streak — batter has multiple HRs or barrels in the last 7 days of Statcast data.💨 Wind Out 2.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 17.0%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 17.0% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
111.3mph
31.0°
433ft
Barrel 6.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.8Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.8 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.52Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.52 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.057Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 5.7% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.
109.8mph
24.0°
435ft
Barrel 10.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.0Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.0 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.
96.0mph
35.0°
337ft
Barrel 8.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.3Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.3 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.⚠️ BP 13.3%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.3% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
101.7mph
30.0°
378ft
Barrel 9.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 7.77Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 7.77 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.57FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.🌡️ 94°FHot game-time temperature (94°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.🔥 BP 15.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 15.2% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.7mph
21.0°
366ft
Barrel 6.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.51Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.51 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.64FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.216Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 21.6% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.💨 Wind Out 5.1mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 13.3%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.3% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
102.6mph
29.0°
414ft
Barrel 6.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.49Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.49 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.169Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 16.9% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.⚠️ BP 14.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 14.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
107.8mph
27.0°
448ft
Barrel 8.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.🌡️ 88°FHot game-time temperature (88°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.
102.8mph
33.0°
405ft
Barrel 5.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.95Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.95 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.082Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 8.2% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.💨 Wind Out 2.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 14.8%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 14.8% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
102.3mph
38.0°
387ft
Barrel 9.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.4Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.4 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.🌡️ 94°FHot game-time temperature (94°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.⚠️ BP 13.9%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.9% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
100.4mph
30.0°
405ft
Barrel 7.7%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.03Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.03 signals HR vulnerability.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.🌡️ 88°FHot game-time temperature (88°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.⚠️ BP 13.4%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.4% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
104.8mph
30.0°
405ft
Barrel 8.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.5Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.5 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.57Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.57 signals HR vulnerability.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.💨 Wind Out 2.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🌡️ 86°FHot game-time temperature (86°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.
95.6mph
28.0°
364ft
Barrel 4.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.52Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.52 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.057Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 5.7% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.
102.6mph
25.0°
398ft
Barrel 7.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 92.0Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 92.0 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.💨 Wind Out 8.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 13.0%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.0% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
98.8mph
31.0°
377ft
Barrel 8.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.🌡️ 88°FHot game-time temperature (88°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.
98.5mph
37.0°
357ft
Barrel 7.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.🌡️ 94°FHot game-time temperature (94°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.⚠️ BP 13.9%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.9% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
100.9mph
23.0°
387ft
Barrel 7.1%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.0Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.0 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.💨 Wind Out 2.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🌡️ 86°FHot game-time temperature (86°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.⚠️ BP 12.6%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.6% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
100.5mph
27.0°
387ft
Barrel 4.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.203Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.203 is above average.FIP 4.21Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.21 signals HR vulnerability.💨 Wind Out 2.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 12.1%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.1% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
99.6mph
30.0°
387ft
Barrel 4.7%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.⚠️ BP 13.3%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.3% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
101.1mph
33.0°
401ft
Barrel 7.7%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.57Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.57 signals HR vulnerability.💨 Wind Out 2.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🌡️ 86°FHot game-time temperature (86°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.
103.6mph
24.0°
338ft
Barrel 6.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.40Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.40 signals HR vulnerability.🔥 BP 15.9%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 15.9% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
104.2mph
33.0°
398ft
Barrel 4.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 6.03Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 6.03 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.85FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.⚠️ BP 13.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
98.4mph
28.0°
376ft
Barrel 5.1%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.5Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.5 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.40Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.40 signals HR vulnerability.🔥 BP 15.9%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 15.9% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
94.3mph
29.0°
359ft
Barrel 3.4%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 6.03Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 6.03 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.85FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.⚠️ BP 13.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
95.3mph
30.0°
376ft
Catch Rates
Top 5
2/5
Top 10
2/10
Top 15
3/15
Top 25
3/25
Tier Accuracy
AboveAvg
2/2
Value
1/21
BelowAvg
3/39
Below
22/185
Season Trends
Daily Top-15 Catch Rate
Cumulative Catch Rate by Tier