Results
How the model performed — daily scorecards and season trends.
39
HRs Hit
1/5
Top-5 · 20.0%
4/15
Top-15 · 26.7%
49.9vs 44.9
Avg Score: HR vs Miss
Home Runs · 2026-05-30
Barrel 13.7%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.300Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.300 is elite.EV 93.3Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 93.3 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 6.58Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 6.58 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +2.25FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.276Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 27.6% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.💨 Wind Out 2.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 15.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 15.2% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.4mph
24.0°
403ft
Barrel 9.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.274Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.274 is elite.EV 90.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 5.43Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.43 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +1.03FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.143Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 14.3% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🛑 Wind In 4mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.🌡️ 92°FHot game-time temperature (92°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.
99.4mph
25.0°
348ft
Barrel 14.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.278Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.278 is elite.EV 91.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.59Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.59 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.087Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 8.7% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.💨 Wind Out 6.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 12.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.2% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.7mph
32.0°
390ft
Barrel 10.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.293Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.293 is elite.EV 90.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.Park 1.276Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 27.6% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.💨 Wind Out 2.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.
96.8mph
36.0°
363ft
Barrel 12.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.239Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.239 is above average.EV 91.0Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.0 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.Park 1.143Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 14.3% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.
105.3mph
38.0°
417ft
Barrel 12.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.255Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.255 is elite.EV 92.0Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 92.0 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP-xFIP +0.61FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.255Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 25.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.
109.2mph
25.0°
426ft
Barrel 12.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.228Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.228 is above average.EV 93.1Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 93.1 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.59Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.59 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.087Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 8.7% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.💨 Wind Out 6.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 12.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.2% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
100.4mph
28.0°
412ft
Barrel 12.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.9Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.9 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 6.58Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 6.58 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +2.25FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.276Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 27.6% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.💨 Wind Out 2.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 15.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 15.2% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.4mph
28.0°
405ft
Barrel 9.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.4Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.4 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.59Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.59 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.087Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 8.7% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.💨 Wind Out 6.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 12.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.2% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
107.9mph
25.0°
418ft
Barrel 9.1%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.9Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.9 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.32Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.32 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.108Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 10.8% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.💨 Wind Out 18.4mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 14.0%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 14.0% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
102.4mph
25.0°
362ft
Barrel 7.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.Park 1.143Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 14.3% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🔥 HOTHot streak — batter has multiple HRs or barrels in the last 7 days of Statcast data.⚠️ BP 12.0%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.0% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
103.6mph
23.0°
396ft
Barrel 13.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 94.3Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 94.3 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP-xFIP +0.61FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.255Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 25.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.
104.0mph
36.0°
410ft
Barrel 9.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.💨 Wind Out 15.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🌡️ 92°FHot game-time temperature (92°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.⚠️ BP 12.4%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.4% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
108.0mph
19.0°
367ft
Barrel 10.5%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.3Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.3 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 5.06Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.06 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.77FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.101Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 10.1% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.💨 Wind Out 3.4mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 13.9%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.9% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
114.6mph
30.0°
444ft
Barrel 5.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.3Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.3 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 5.60Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.60 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.81FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.374Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 37.4% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🔥 HOTHot streak — batter has multiple HRs or barrels in the last 7 days of Statcast data.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.💨 Wind Out 15.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.
103.0mph
27.0°
406ft
Barrel 12.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 96.3Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 96.3 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.73Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.73 signals HR vulnerability.
106.1mph
30.0°
420ft
Barrel 11.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.4Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.4 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 6.58Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 6.58 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +2.25FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.276Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 27.6% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.💨 Wind Out 2.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🔥 BP 15.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 15.2% (league avg ~12%). If the starter exits early, relievers are also HR-prone. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.6mph
31.0°
410ft
Barrel 9.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.230Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.230 is above average.EV 90.1Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.1 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.05Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.05 signals HR vulnerability.
106.8mph
41.0°
372ft
Barrel 7.1%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.73Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.73 signals HR vulnerability.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.
107.2mph
29.0°
408ft
Barrel 11.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.ISO 0.202Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Measures raw extra-base power. League avg ~.150; this batter's 0.202 is above average.EV 89.9Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.9 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP-xFIP +0.61FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.255Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 25.5% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.
101.5mph
27.0°
403ft
Barrel 8.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 91.2Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 91.2 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.Park 1.143Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 14.3% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.
113.2mph
32.0°
431ft
Barrel 8.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.Park 1.143Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 14.3% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.
100.6mph
31.0°
380ft
Barrel 8.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.4Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.4 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.💨 Wind Out 24.2mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 13.2%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.2% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
105.6mph
17.0°
371ft
Barrel 7.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 5.09Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.09 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.69FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.269Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 26.9% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🛑 Wind In 2.0mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.⚠️ BP 13.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
103.7mph
25.0°
427ft
Barrel 8.0%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.7Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.7 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.💨 Wind Out 15.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🌡️ 92°FHot game-time temperature (92°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.⚠️ BP 12.4%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.4% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
102.2mph
38.0°
399ft
Barrel 8.3%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 5.59Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.59 signals HR vulnerability.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.⚠️ BP 12.0%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.0% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
100.3mph
25.0°
386ft
Barrel 5.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 5.43Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.43 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +1.03FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.143Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 14.3% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.🛑 Wind In 4mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.🌡️ 92°FHot game-time temperature (92°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.
103.3mph
27.0°
392ft
Barrel 9.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.Park 1.143Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 14.3% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.
105.5mph
29.0°
397ft
Barrel 6.8%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.2Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.2 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 5.09Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.09 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.69FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.269Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 26.9% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🛑 Wind In 2.0mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.⚠️ BP 13.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
102.9mph
26.0°
396ft
Barrel 8.4%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.32Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.32 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.108Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 10.8% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.💨 Wind Out 18.4mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 14.0%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 14.0% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
104.7mph
30.0°
417ft
Barrel 7.7%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.6Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.6 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.22Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.22 signals HR vulnerability.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.💨 Wind Out 15.0mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.🌡️ 92°FHot game-time temperature (92°F). Warm air is less dense — baseballs carry further.⚠️ BP 13.8%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 13.8% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
99.1mph
28.0°
364ft
Barrel 5.9%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 5.34Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 5.34 signals HR vulnerability.FIP-xFIP +0.96FIP minus xFIP gap. A positive gap means the pitcher is giving up MORE home runs than expected — suggests hittable fly balls, not just bad luck.Park 1.269Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 26.9% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🛑 Wind In 2.0mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.⚠️ BP 14.4%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 14.4% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
105.9mph
23.0°
421ft
Barrel 7.7%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.FIP 4.05Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.05 signals HR vulnerability.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.
100.6mph
30.0°
368ft
Barrel 9.6%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.Park 1.103Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 10.3% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.🛑 Wind In 23.0mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.
105.2mph
25.0°
366ft
Barrel 2.7%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 90.1Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 90.1 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.05Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.05 signals HR vulnerability.📈 WARMWarming up — batter showing above-average hard contact and exit velocity over the last 7 days.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.
97.7mph
31.0°
371ft
Barrel 10.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.EV 89.9Avg exit velocity off the bat. League avg ~88 mph. 89.9 mph means this batter consistently squares the ball up.FIP 4.32Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.32 signals HR vulnerability.Park 1.108Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 10.8% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.💨 Wind Out 18.4mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 14.0%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 14.0% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
114.0mph
24.0°
451ft
Barrel 5.2%Barrel rate matchup — batter's barrel% vs this pitcher type. Higher = more hard-hit fly balls likely to leave the yard.Park 1.108Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 10.8% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🥶 COLDCold streak — batter's recent hard-contact and barrel rate are well below their season norms.💨 Wind Out 18.4mphWind blowing out toward the outfield — carries fly balls further. One of the strongest non-batter factors for HRs.⚠️ BP 12.5%Opposing bullpen HR/FB rate is 12.5% (near league avg ~12%). Neutral bullpen context. Display-only — does not affect model score.
106.6mph
25.0°
397ft
FIP 4.73Fielding Independent Pitching — measures pitcher quality by K, BB, HR, HBP only. League avg ~4.00; this pitcher's 4.73 signals HR vulnerability.⚡ Surprise BarrelSurprise barrel — batter produced a barrel-quality batted ball recently despite a low season barrel rate. Signals emerging power.
104.5mph
23.0°
410ft
Park 1.103Park HR factor — this stadium boosts HRs by 10.3% vs league average. Based on Statcast actuals blended with recent 21-day rolling results.🛑 Wind In 23.0mphWind blowing in from the outfield — knocks down fly balls. Suppresses HR probability.
100.5mph
36.0°
386ft
Catch Rates
Top 5
1/5
Top 10
2/10
Top 15
4/15
Top 25
5/25
Tier Accuracy
Excellent
2/6
AboveAvg
2/11
Value
7/38
BelowAvg
10/55
Below
18/160
Season Trends
Daily Top-15 Catch Rate
Cumulative Catch Rate by Tier