12
HRs allowed
12.6%
HR rate (pool)
14.0%
Overall HR/FB
5.47
FIP
5.54
xFIP
-0.08
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
58
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 58th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
17.9%
Hard-Hit% allowed
62.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 101.7 EV · 375 ft
max EV allowed 110.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 3 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Cristian Javier.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
46.4%
82.6
36.5°
5
+0.5
Sweeper Breaking
26.7%
82.2
31.4°
3
-0.2
Changeup Offspeed
16.4%
79.7
17.1°
1
+0.1
Cutter Hard
7.4%
81.5
18.3°
2
+0.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups95
HRs allowed (pool)12
Pool HR rate12.6%
Pool HR/game day1.09
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB14.0% 58
HR/9—
FIP5.47 89
xFIP5.54
FIP − xFIP-0.08 39
Barrel% allowed17.9%
Hard-Hit% allowed62.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Fastball
Hard · 46.4% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.6 mph
Avg launch angle36.5°
HRs allowed5
Pitches542
Sweeper
Breaking · 26.7% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.2 mph
Avg launch angle31.4°
HRs allowed3
Pitches312
Changeup
Offspeed · 16.4% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle17.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches191
Cutter
Hard · 7.4% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.5 mph
Avg launch angle18.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches86
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Cristian Javier.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
12 allowed · scored pool
avg 101.7 EV · 375 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 11 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-22
7
0
102.6
2026-09-16
9
2
103.2
2026-09-10
9
0
100.1
2026-09-04
9
1
105.1
2026-08-23
9
2
107.8
2026-08-18
9
1
106.3
2026-08-09
8
2
110.8
2026-08-03
8
0
107.6
2026-07-12
9
1
106.7
2026-04-08
9
1
108.9
2026-03-28
9
2
104.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Cristian Javier isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Cristian Javier isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
53
8
15%
8
2
25%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
9
0
0%
7
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Cristian Javier
How many home runs has Cristian Javier allowed this season?
Cristian Javier has allowed 12 home runs across 11 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Cristian Javier?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Cristian Javier include Abraham Toro (1), Alex Bregman (1), Brian Serven (1) and 15 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.