MLB Home Run Predictions — September 4, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-04: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 4, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #6 | Colson Montgomery | Zebby Matthews | 64 | C+ Value |
| #9 | Miguel Vargas | Zebby Matthews | 63 | C+ Value |
| #22 | Max Muncy | Jackson Kent | 61 | C+ Value |
| #24 | Rafael Devers | Nolan McLean | 60 | C+ Value |
| #26 | Cal Raleigh | Kade Morris | 60 | C+ Value |
| #34 | Ben Rice | Walker Buehler | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Jameson Taillon | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #41 | Eugenio Suárez | Shane Drohan | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #44 | Yainer Diaz | Merrill Kelly | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #51 | Zack Gelof | Logan Gilbert | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #61 | Mickey Gasper | Shane Baz | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #68 | Gabriel Moreno | Cristian Javier | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #70 | Vinnie Pasquantino | Jameson Taillon | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #82 | Spencer Torkelson | Logan Allen | 49 | D Below |
| #84 | Josh Bell | Erick Fedde | 49 | D Below |
| #86 | Ezequiel Duran | Nick Martinez | 48 | D Below |
| #92 | Spencer Torkelson | Foster Griffin | 48 | D Below |
| #97 | Francisco Lindor | Matt Wilkinson | 47 | D Below |
| #100 | Mark Vientos | Matt Wilkinson | 46 | D Below |
| #109 | Jonathan Aranda | Trevor Williams | 46 | D Below |
| #118 | Matt McLain | Shane Drohan | 45 | D Below |
| #122 | Elias Díaz | Nick Martinez | 45 | D Below |
| #140 | Iván Herrera | Ryan Feltner | 43 | D Below |
| #147 | Francisco Alvarez | Matt Wilkinson | 42 | D Below |
| #153 | Braden Montgomery | Zebby Matthews | 41 | D Below |
| #161 | Cole Carrigg | Andre Pallante | 40 | D Below |
| #170 | Michael Busch | Janson Junk | 39 | D Below |
| #172 | Alec Bohm | Chris Sale | 39 | D Below |
| #188 | Kyle Tucker | Jackson Kent | 38 | D Below |
| #191 | TJ Rumfield | Andre Pallante | 37 | D Below |
| #192 | Bo Bichette | Matt Wilkinson | 37 | D Below |
| #204 | Richie Palacios | Trevor Williams | 36 | D Below |
| #206 | Mauricio Dubón | Cristopher Sánchez | 35 | D Below |
| #214 | Travis Bazzana | Andrew Sears | 35 | D Below |
| #217 | Travis Bazzana | Keider Montero | 34 | D Below |
| #228 | Jeff Mcneil | Logan Gilbert | 32 | D Below |
| #235 | Brayan Rocchio | Andrew Sears | 32 | D Below |
| #240 | Brayan Rocchio | Keider Montero | 31 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Zack Gelof, Mickey Gasper, Gabriel Moreno, Vinnie Pasquantino, Spencer Torkelson, Josh Bell, Ezequiel Duran, Spencer Torkelson, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, Jonathan Aranda, Matt McLain, Elias Díaz, Iván Herrera, Francisco Alvarez, Braden Montgomery, Cole Carrigg, Michael Busch, Alec Bohm, Kyle Tucker, TJ Rumfield, Bo Bichette, Richie Palacios, Mauricio Dubón, Travis Bazzana, Travis Bazzana, Jeff Mcneil, Brayan Rocchio, Brayan Rocchio