Six home runs
to freedom.
TheHomeRuns.org is the first prediction engine where AI learns from community adjustments and the community learns from outcomes. Every night, the model gets sharper — and so do you. Find the batters most likely to go yard, backed by data you can actually see.
Six lenses. One pick. Sixty seconds.
Watch a real board — CHC @ BAL, frozen exactly as the model scored it — as six lenses turn a messy matchup into one defensible, explainable pick. It plays on a loop. No promises. Just the reasoning.
Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.
Frozen snapshot · CHC @ BAL · Thu Jul 9, 2026 · archived game data.
The board opens ranked by Conviction — tonight’s top bats surface before you touch anything.
Re-sorted by the raw model score, the pick climbs to #1 of 18 — conviction and score agree he belongs at the top. Archived odds for this game aren’t in the file, so the odds column reads —.
The starter’s real season arsenal — Peterson’s sinker grades as the soft spot: 5 of the 9 HRs he’s allowed. T. Rogers’ arsenal isn’t in the archive.
X is Match%, Y is 14-day pace — upper-right is where picks live, and Crow-Armstrong sits there at 26.2 / 25.0.
Camden’s base plays 1.097×. The archive holds one weather snapshot — not an hourly build — so the hourly bars read —.
Every ranked batter, no filtering — the pick holds in full context.
Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.
Frozen snapshot · CHC @ BAL · Thu Jul 9, 2026 · archived game data.
235 batters tonight.
Six matter.
Every batter playing tonight, ranked by composite score — park factor, barrel matchup, ISO power, pitcher vulnerability, weather, and a dozen other Statcast signals. Top of the board = strongest HR conviction.
| # | Batter | Score | Pitcher · Game | Tier | '26 HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brandon Lowe (L) |
93 | Spencer Strider | 🔥 A+ | 15 |
| 2 |  Shea Langeliers (R) |
80 | Tatsuya Imai | A | 16 |
| 3 |  Miguel Vargas (R) |
75 | Andrew Painter | B | 15 |
| 4 |  Juan Soto (L) |
73 | Griffin Canning | B | 13 |
| 5 |  Christian Walker (R) |
73 | ATH Bullpen Proxy | B | 16 |
See where the home runs
actually live.
Pick any two stats — barrel rate, ISO, pitcher HR/FB, park factor. HR Shape draws the heat map of every home run hit this season, surfaces the cells with the biggest lift, and tells you which batters land in them tonight.
Built by someone who did this by hand
Every morning before first pitch, the founder opened 17 browser tabs — Statcast leaderboards, pitcher susceptibility, park factors, weather reports, lineups — and cross-referenced them all by hand to find the best HR matchups. It was a lot of work. It rarely worked. So he automated it.
The ritual was fun. We kept the research — we just made it actually work.
The Prediction Flywheel
Three forces converging every single night. The AI gets smarter. The crowd gets sharper. The picks get better.
AI Scores the Slate
Every batter ranked 1–150 using matchup probability, park factors, weather, platoon splits, bullpen vulnerability, and recent form — all weighted against the scored matchup history behind the app.
Community Adjusts
You see something the model doesn't? Bump conviction up or down. Every adjustment feeds back into the engine. The crowd spots edge the algorithm misses — lineup changes, tip sheets, gut reads.
Outcomes Teach Both
After every game, results flow back. The model recalibrates weights. You see which adjustments hit and which missed. Season-long dashboards track exactly how sharp each signal is.
Six Home Runs to Freedom
The math is simple. Six correct HR picks in a parlay pays life-changing money. The hard part is finding the right six. That's what we built this for.
Everything Shows Its Work
Daily Slate Rankings
Every batter ranked 1–150 with composite scores. Tier badges from S to D. Sortable by any factor.
Matchup Overlays
Click any batter for the full breakdown — spray charts, percentile bars, pitcher stats, and adjustable conviction.
Today's Locks
Lock your daily picks, track your hit rate over time, and analyze co-occurrence. Build HR parlays backed by data, not gut feel.
Morning Emails
Today's top picks in your inbox before first pitch. No app to check — just open and you're ready.
Weather & Parks
Real-time wind direction analysis against each stadium's outfield bearing. Domes and retractable roofs accounted for.
Track Record
Season-long performance dashboards. Pick-hit rates, baseline lift, capture context, and calibration charts — radical transparency.
Questions, before you commit
No fine print, no asterisks — just the stuff people actually want to know.
Is this gambling advice?
How accurate is the model?
What's the difference between Free and Pro?
Can I cancel anytime?
Why TheHomeRuns.ORG?
Food, Shelter, a Premium URL — you can pick two!
The .com economy, like everything else in this world, is incredibly inflated, with many premium URLs costing as much as (or more than) purchasing a home. As a millennial family, the founders of TheHomeRuns.org are committed to bringing baseball fanatics a premium service at an affordable price — and with that comes some sacrifices.
The slate is live. The community is picking.
Create a free account and see tonight's top 5 right now — or preview the slate first.