Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now — composite ranking using actual season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB%, HR/9, HRs allowed, and FIP-xFIP gap.
HR Susceptibility Rankings (Season)
| # | Pitcher |
Tier
Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35 |
Score
Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/9 — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 458 qualified pitchers. |
HRs Actual HRs allowed this season (FanGraphs). League avg ~2 among qualified pitchers. Percentile badge shown when 75th+. | IP Innings pitched. More IP = larger sample. Low IP with high HRs = alarming rate. |
HR/9
Home runs per 9 innings. League avg: 1.06. Above 1.5 = concerning. Above 2.0 = alarming. |
HR/FB%
% of fly balls that leave the park. League avg: 11.9%. The best single predictor of future HR rate. Above 20% = red flag. Above 30% = extreme. Heaviest weight in composite (30%). |
ERA Earned Run Average. Not in the composite score — FIP is better for HR prediction — but useful for overall pitcher quality context. |
FIP
Fielding Independent Pitching. Like ERA but only counts HRs, walks, K's, and HBP. League avg: 4.17. Strips out defense and luck — isolates what the pitcher controls. High FIP = hard, damaging contact. |
xFIP
Expected FIP — replaces actual HR/FB% with league average (~11.9%). League avg: 4.17. When FIP >> xFIP, the pitcher is giving up HRs at an unsustainable rate. |
Gap
FIP minus xFIP. Positive = allowing more HRs than expected (vulnerability or regression incoming). +1.0+ = extreme HR problem. Negative = fewer HRs than expected (good for pitcher). |
Pool HRs / matchups against batters in our scored pool. Rates run higher than league avg since our pool targets high-probability HR matchups. "—" = no scored matchups yet. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz, Steven KC 🎯 | 🔥 Extreme | 7 83th | 13.0 | 4.85 | 50.0% | 9.53 | 9.53 | 4.21 | +5.32 | · | |
| 2 | Taillon, Jameson CHC 🎯 | ⚠️ High | 21 100th | 63.7 | 2.97 | 23.9% | 6.78 | 6.78 | 4.65 | +2.13 | · | |
| 3 | Singer, Brady CIN 🎯 | ⚠️ High | 15 100th | 49.3 | 2.74 | 27.8% | 6.58 | 6.58 | 4.33 | +2.25 | · | |
| 4 | Morales, Luis ATH 🎯 | ⚠️ High | 5 | 12.0 | 3.75 | 31.2% | 11.32 | 11.32 | 7.98 | +3.34 | · | |
| 5 | Santillan, Tony CIN 🎯 | ⚠️ High | 8 87th | 21.0 | 3.43 | 29.6% | 7.48 | 7.48 | 4.54 | +2.94 | · | |
| 6 | Waldichuk, Ken WSH 🎯 | ⚠️ High | 4 | 10.3 | 3.50 | 33.3% | 8.39 | 8.39 | 5.16 | +3.23 | · | |
| 7 | Kremer, Dean BAL 🎯 | ⚠️ High | 4 | 11.0 | 3.27 | 33.3% | 5.51 | 5.51 | 2.49 | +3.02 | · | |
| 8 | Bummer, Aaron ATL 🎯 | ⚠️ High | 6 77th | 16.7 | 3.23 | 30.0% | 8.24 | 8.24 | 5.44 | +2.80 | · | |
| 9 | Lodolo, Nick CIN 🎯 | 📊 Elevated | 6 77th | 20.7 | 2.61 | 33.3% | 7.35 | 7.35 | 4.94 | +2.41 | · | |
| 10 | Bellozo, Valente COL 🎯 | 📊 Elevated | 5 | 13.7 | 3.28 | 27.8% | 8.62 | 8.62 | 5.93 | +2.69 | · | |
| 11 | Walker, Taijuan PHI | 📊 Elevated | 8 87th | 22.7 | 3.17 | 24.2% | 7.82 | 7.82 | 5.51 | +2.31 | · | |
| 12 | Weiss, Ryan HOU | 📊 Elevated | 8 87th | 26.0 | 2.77 | 27.6% | 7.15 | 7.15 | 4.89 | +2.26 | · | |
| 13 | Freeland, Kyle COL | 📊 Elevated | 12 97th | 45.7 | 2.36 | 22.6% | 6.08 | 6.08 | 4.48 | +1.60 | · | |
| 14 | Littell, Zack WSH | 📊 Elevated | 15 100th | 52.7 | 2.56 | 16.9% | 6.74 | 6.74 | 5.67 | +1.07 | · | |
| 15 | Ragans, Cole KC | 📊 Elevated | 10 93th | 39.3 | 2.29 | 23.3% | 5.67 | 5.67 | 4.07 | +1.60 | · |
How this works:
The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using
real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), HR/9 (25%), total HRs allowed (20%),
and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool.
All stats shown are actual current season numbers.
Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (458 currently qualify).
The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon
directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.
Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)