16
HRs allowed
10.3%
HR rate (pool)
23.5%
Overall HR/FB
4.69
FIP
3.47
xFIP
+1.22
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
93
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 93th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
66.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.2 EV · 391 ft
max EV allowed 115.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Nathan Eovaldi.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Splitter Offspeed
36.6%
84.8
0.4°
5
-1.7
Curveball Breaking
22.0%
78.2
11.6°
2
-1.3
Cutter Hard
20.1%
83.8
26.2°
5
+0.5
Fastball Hard
12.9%
87.0
20.7°
5
+3.0
Sinker Hard
8.0%
78.0
10.1°
2
+0.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups156
HRs allowed (pool)16
Pool HR rate10.3%
Pool HR/game day0.89
Top-15 matchups12
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB23.5% 93
HR/9—
FIP4.69 72
xFIP3.47
FIP − xFIP+1.22 94
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed66.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Splitter
Offspeed · 36.6% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.8 mph
Avg launch angle0.4°
HRs allowed5
Pitches616
Curveball
Breaking · 22.0% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.2 mph
Avg launch angle11.6°
HRs allowed2
Pitches371
Cutter
Hard · 20.1% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle26.2°
HRs allowed5
Pitches338
Fastball
Hard · 12.9% usage
+3.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.0 mph
Avg launch angle20.7°
HRs allowed5
Pitches217
Sinker
Hard · 8.0% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.0 mph
Avg launch angle10.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches134
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Nathan Eovaldi.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
16 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.2 EV · 391 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-09
9
0
109.1
2026-07-02
9
2
109.9
2026-06-26
8
1
106.6
2026-06-21
7
0
109.9
2026-06-14
9
1
108.0
2026-06-09
6
1
111.5
2026-06-02
9
1
108.8
2026-05-28
9
1
103.1
2026-05-23
9
1
108.9
2026-05-17
9
0
101.8
2026-05-11
9
0
103.4
2026-05-06
9
1
110.0
2026-04-29
9
0
107.8
2026-04-24
9
4
115.9
2026-04-18
9
1
112.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Nathan Eovaldi isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.