21
HRs allowed
10.7%
HR rate (pool)
23.9%
Overall HR/FB
4.59
FIP
3.42
xFIP
+1.17
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
93
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 93th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
16.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed
66.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.8 EV · 395 ft
max EV allowed 115.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 0 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Nathan Eovaldi.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Splitter Offspeed
37.3%
84.4
0.9°
7
-1.5
Curveball Breaking
22.1%
78.2
9.8°
4
-0.6
Cutter Hard
19.0%
83.3
29.6°
5
+0.5
Fastball Hard
13.8%
87.4
24.6°
6
+2.6
Sinker Hard
7.0%
78.3
11.3°
2
+1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups197
HRs allowed (pool)21
Pool HR rate10.7%
Pool HR/game day0.91
Top-15 matchups15
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB23.9% 93
HR/9—
FIP4.59 70
xFIP3.42
FIP − xFIP+1.17 94
Barrel% allowed16.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed66.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Splitter
Offspeed · 37.3% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.4 mph
Avg launch angle0.9°
HRs allowed7
Pitches840
Curveball
Breaking · 22.1% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.2 mph
Avg launch angle9.8°
HRs allowed4
Pitches497
Cutter
Hard · 19.0% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle29.6°
HRs allowed5
Pitches427
Fastball
Hard · 13.8% usage
+2.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.4 mph
Avg launch angle24.6°
HRs allowed6
Pitches311
Sinker
Hard · 7.0% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.3 mph
Avg launch angle11.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches157
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Nathan Eovaldi.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
21 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.8 EV · 395 ft
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-26
9
0
104.9
2026-08-07
9
0
108.9
2026-07-31
8
3
110.1
2026-07-25
8
0
107.0
2026-07-19
7
2
109.4
2026-07-09
9
0
109.1
2026-07-02
9
2
109.9
2026-06-26
8
1
106.6
2026-06-21
7
0
109.9
2026-06-14
9
1
108.0
2026-06-09
6
1
111.5
2026-06-02
9
1
108.8
2026-05-28
9
1
103.1
2026-05-23
9
1
108.9
2026-05-17
9
0
101.8
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Nathan Eovaldi isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Nathan Eovaldi isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
87
7
8%
17
3
18%
9
2
22%
7
2
29%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 13. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Nathan Eovaldi
How many home runs has Nathan Eovaldi allowed this season?
Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 21 home runs across 23 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Nathan Eovaldi?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Nathan Eovaldi include Christian Walker (2), Isaac Paredes (2), Aaron Judge (1) and 27 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.