MLB Home Run Predictions — July 31, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-31: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 31, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
30
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
54.4 vs 45.8
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5 | Matt Olson | Foster Griffin | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #7 | CJ Abrams | Bryce Elder | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #8 | Dillon Dingler | Jeffrey Springs | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #17 | Pete Alonso | Andrew Painter | 65 | C+ Value |
| #21 | Joc Pederson | Hunter Brown | 63 | C+ Value |
| #26 | Munetaka Murakami | Nick Martinez | 62 | C+ Value |
| #27 | Junior Caminero | Erick Fedde | 62 | C+ Value |
| #29 | Sal Stewart | Paul Skenes | 61 | C+ Value |
| #30 | Shohei Ohtani | Ranger Suarez | 61 | C+ Value |
| #31 | Carter Jensen | Tomoyuki Sugano | 61 | C+ Value |
| #32 | Kyle Stowers | Kodai Senga | 60 | C+ Value |
| #36 | JJ Bleday | Paul Skenes | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #40 | Jake Bauers | Ryan Johnson | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #42 | Christian Walker | Nathan Eovaldi | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #60 | Colson Montgomery | Nick Martinez | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #62 | Miguel Vargas | Nick Martinez | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #71 | Amed Rosario | Shota Imanaga | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #74 | Spencer Jones | Shota Imanaga | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #78 | Brice Turang | Ryan Johnson | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #84 | Trea Turner | Brandon Young | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #91 | Kevin Mcgonigle | Jeffrey Springs | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #110 | Francisco Lindor | Janson Junk | 47 | D Below |
| #116 | Ceddanne Rafaela | Edgardo Henriquez | 46 | D Below |
| #117 | Isaac Paredes | Nathan Eovaldi | 46 | D Below |
| #119 | Royce Lewis | Bryce Miller | 46 | D Below |
| #127 | Cole Young | Zebby Matthews | 46 | D Below |
| #130 | Yainer Diaz | Nathan Eovaldi | 45 | D Below |
| #165 | Brooks Lee | Bryce Miller | 42 | D Below |
| #170 | Andrew Benintendi | Nick Martinez | 41 | D Below |
| #226 | Jake Mangum | Hunter Greene | 32 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Amed Rosario, Spencer Jones, Brice Turang, Trea Turner, Kevin Mcgonigle, Francisco Lindor, Ceddanne Rafaela, Isaac Paredes, Royce Lewis, Cole Young, Yainer Diaz, Brooks Lee, Andrew Benintendi, Jake Mangum
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.