MLB Home Run Predictions — July 30, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-30: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 30, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
14
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
1/15
Top-15 picks that homered
48.8 vs 44.9
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5 | Willson Contreras | Mason Barnett | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #16 | Brandon Lowe | Rhett Lowder | 62 | C+ Value |
| #18 | Wilyer Abreu | Mason Barnett | 61 | C+ Value |
| #33 | Dalton Rushing | Bryan Woo | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #42 | Kody Clemens | Noah Cameron | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #52 | Daylen Lile | Grant Holmes | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #56 | Kyle Stowers | Nolan McLean | 49 | D Below |
| #60 | Jac Caglianone | Bailey Ober | 49 | D Below |
| #73 | Mike Yastrzemski | Jake Irvin | 46 | D Below |
| #84 | Teoscar Hernández | Bryan Woo | 44 | D Below |
| #104 | Jonny DeLuca | Cole Winn | 40 | D Below |
| #105 | Cedric Mullins | Cole Winn | 40 | D Below |
| #112 | JJ Wetherholt | Javier Assad | 38 | D Below |
| #151 | Jakob Marsee | Nolan McLean | 27 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Daylen Lile, Kyle Stowers, Jac Caglianone, Mike Yastrzemski, Teoscar Hernández, Jonny DeLuca, Cedric Mullins, JJ Wetherholt, Jakob Marsee
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.