Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Exploitable Pitch-Type Matchups on Today's Slate
| Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Tovar | Robbie Ray | Knuckle Curve | +18.8 | +0.7 | 8% | 1 | 0 | #68 | |
| Taylor Trammell | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +5.3 | +-1.3 | 62% | 1 | 3 | #225 | |
| Jorge Mateo | Nick Lodolo | Fastball | +7.7 | +5.9 | 24% | 1 | 4 | #38 | |
| Ben Rice | Jacob Lopez | Fastball | +7.6 | +1.6 | 34% | 9 | 4 | #9 | |
| Paul Goldschmidt | Jacob Lopez | Fastball | +7.8 | +1.6 | 34% | 3 | 4 | #51 | |
| Sal Stewart | Spencer Strider | Fastball | +4.8 | +0.9 | 48% | 5 | 3 | #37 | |
| Chadwick Tromp | Nick Lodolo | Fastball | +6.2 | +5.9 | 24% | 0 | 4 | #255 | |
| Jeremy Peña | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +3.3 | +-1.3 | 62% | 1 | 3 | #181 | |
| JJ Bleday | Spencer Strider | Fastball | +4.4 | +0.9 | 48% | 3 | 3 | #5 | |
| Dalton Rushing | Andrew Painter | Curveball | +12.8 | +0.2 | 9% | 2 | 0 | #41 | |
| Jordan Walker | Jordan Wicks | Fastball | +1.4 | +3.8 | 46% | 6 | 0 | #21 | |
| Henry Davis | Zebby Matthews | Cutter | +10.1 | +3.1 | 8% | 2 | 1 | #134 | |
| Iván Herrera | Jordan Wicks | Fastball | +1.0 | +3.8 | 46% | 2 | 0 | #34 | |
| Christian Walker | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.5 | +-1.3 | 62% | 5 | 3 | #43 | |
| Colson Montgomery | Keider Montero | Knuckle Curve | +9.0 | +2.8 | 14% | 1 | 2 | #44 | |
| JJ Wetherholt | Jordan Wicks | Fastball | +1.0 | +3.8 | 46% | 7 | 0 | #90 | |
| Darell Hernaiz | Will Warren | Sweeper | +8.9 | +0.2 | 23% | 1 | 1 | #258 | |
| Cam Smith | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.9 | +-1.3 | 62% | 3 | 3 | #165 | |
| Max Schuemann | Jacob Lopez | Fastball | +4.7 | +1.6 | 34% | 1 | 4 | #63 | |
| Kyle Higashioka | Michael Wacha | Cutter | +10.3 | +-0.5 | 16% | 1 | 1 | #145 | |
| Elly De La Cruz | Spencer Strider | Fastball | +1.9 | +0.9 | 48% | 8 | 3 | #14 | |
| Alec Burleson | Jordan Wicks | Fastball | +0.0 | +3.8 | 46% | 3 | 0 | #97 | |
| Blake Dunn | Spencer Strider | Fastball | +1.9 | +0.9 | 48% | 0 | 3 | #164 | |
| Casey Schmitt | Tanner Gordon | Changeup | +7.7 | +1.0 | 21% | 3 | 1 | #12 | |
| Alec Bohm | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Splitter | +7.5 | +-0.7 | 28% | 0 | 3 | #81 | |
| Sam Antonacci | Keider Montero | Knuckle Curve | +7.8 | +2.8 | 14% | 0 | 2 | #202 | |
| Christian Vázquez | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.3 | +-1.3 | 62% | 2 | 3 | #234 | |
| Cody Bellinger | Jacob Lopez | Slider | +5.4 | +1.0 | 30% | 5 | 3 | #48 | |
| Mauricio Dubón | Nick Lodolo | Curveball | +6.2 | +0.9 | 27% | 1 | 0 | #154 | |
| Jake Meyers | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.2 | +-1.3 | 62% | 1 | 3 | #184 |
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+25.4 RV allowed
Brady Singer
+22.6 RV allowed
Simeon Woods Richardson
+20.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.