Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Exploitable Pitch-Type Matchups on Today's Slate
| Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | Kumar Rocker | Splitter | +6.7 | +14.6 | 1% | 2 | 1 | #101 | |
| Jake Mccarthy | Tyler Mahle | Splitter | +9.5 | +0.4 | 27% | 2 | 4 | #89 | |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.6 | 56% | 7 | 8 | #40 | |
| Pete Alonso | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | +2.3 | +1.8 | 44% | 13 | 13 | #1 | |
| Shohei Ohtani | Framber Valdez | Sinker | +3.6 | -0.2 | 45% | 8 | 5 | #19 | |
| Jake Bauers | Kumar Rocker | Splitter | +1.8 | +14.6 | 1% | 0 | 1 | #27 | |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.6 | 56% | 13 | 8 | #6 | |
| Byron Buxton | Jordan Hicks | Sinker | +1.6 | +0.7 | 49% | 4 | 0 | #51 | |
| Trevor Larnach | Jordan Hicks | Sinker | +1.5 | +0.7 | 49% | 3 | 0 | #144 | |
| Dominic Canzone | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +2.3 | -0.2 | 47% | 10 | 3 | #25 | |
| Carson Kelly | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.6 | -0.6 | 56% | 0 | 8 | #127 | |
| Royce Lewis | Jordan Hicks | Sinker | +1.4 | +0.7 | 49% | 6 | 0 | #128 | |
| Steven Kwan | Seth Lugo | Slurve | +8.9 | +4.4 | 2% | 0 | 0 | #201 | |
| Bryce Harper | Yusei Kikuchi | Fastball | +3.7 | +0.9 | 36% | 13 | 0 | #45 | |
| Michael Busch | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.3 | -0.6 | 56% | 8 | 8 | #56 | |
| Alex Bregman | Chase Burns | Fastball | +0.3 | -0.6 | 56% | 6 | 8 | #81 | |
| Luke Keaschall | Jordan Hicks | Sinker | +0.9 | +0.7 | 49% | 1 | 0 | #190 | |
| Mickey Moniak | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +1.9 | -0.7 | 48% | 9 | 9 | #15 | |
| Sal Stewart | Shota Imanaga | Fastball | +2.5 | -0.2 | 41% | 11 | 13 | #8 | |
| Willson Contreras | Will Warren | Sinker | +4.7 | +1.2 | 26% | 9 | 4 | #9 | |
| A.J. Ewing | Ethan Pecko | Cutter | +4.5 | +4.5 | 16% | 1 | 1 | #146 | |
| Willi Castro | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.7 | 48% | 8 | 9 | #74 | |
| Jake Mccarthy | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.7 | 48% | 7 | 9 | #89 | |
| Tj Rumfield | Tyler Mahle | Fastball | +1.2 | -0.7 | 48% | 4 | 9 | #117 | |
| Braden Montgomery | Zebby Matthews | Fastball | +3.3 | -0.1 | 36% | 2 | 5 | #129 | |
| Josh Naylor | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.2 | 47% | 5 | 3 | #150 | |
| Jackson Holliday | Jeffrey Springs | Fastball | -0.1 | +1.8 | 44% | 3 | 13 | #75 | |
| Kazuma Okamoto | Logan Gilbert | Fastball | +2.8 | -0.9 | 40% | 10 | 13 | #28 | |
| Randy Arozarena | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +0.5 | -0.2 | 47% | 6 | 3 | #36 | |
| Matt Mclain | Shota Imanaga | Splitter | +4.0 | -0.5 | 33% | 1 | 9 | #46 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+48.1 RV
Kyle Schwarber
+38.1 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+35.4 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+43.6 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+27.6 RV allowed
Merrill Kelly
+25.3 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.