MLB Home Run Predictions — August 1, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-01: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 1, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
27
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
48.6 vs 45.8
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 | Matt Olson | Miles Mikolas | 75 | B AboveAvg |
| #6 | Hunter Goodman | Luinder Avila | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #12 | Jac Caglianone | Ryan Feltner | 67 | C+ Value |
| #16 | Wyatt Langford | Ronel Blanco | 65 | C+ Value |
| #27 | Salvador Perez | Ryan Feltner | 62 | C+ Value |
| #47 | Tyrone Taylor | Tyler Phillips | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #50 | Griffin Conine | Zac Thornton | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #56 | Jake Bauers | Brent Suter | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #72 | Rhys Hoskins | Kohl Drake | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #81 | Elias Díaz | Ronel Blanco | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #83 | Ceddanne Rafaela | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #84 | Willi Castro | Luinder Avila | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #93 | Dominic Smith | Miles Mikolas | 49 | D Below |
| #110 | Randy Arozarena | Connor Prielipp | 47 | D Below |
| #114 | Teoscar Hernández | Payton Tolle | 47 | D Below |
| #115 | Kevin Mcgonigle | Jack Perkins | 47 | D Below |
| #118 | Jose Trevino | Braxton Ashcraft | 46 | D Below |
| #123 | Gleyber Torres | Jack Perkins | 46 | D Below |
| #127 | Corbin Carroll | Parker Messick | 45 | D Below |
| #141 | Trevor Larnach | Logan Gilbert | 43 | D Below |
| #158 | Henry Bolte | Framber Valdez | 41 | D Below |
| #163 | Chase DeLauter | Kohl Drake | 41 | D Below |
| #179 | Nolan Arenado | Parker Messick | 38 | D Below |
| #220 | Luke Keaschall | Logan Gilbert | 30 | D Below |
| #226 | Geraldo Perdomo | Parker Messick | 29 | D Below |
| #227 | Javier Sanoja | Zac Thornton | 29 | D Below |
| #233 | Nico Hoerner | Max Fried | 27 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Jake Bauers, Rhys Hoskins, Elias Díaz, Ceddanne Rafaela, Willi Castro, Dominic Smith, Randy Arozarena, Teoscar Hernández, Kevin Mcgonigle, Jose Trevino, Gleyber Torres, Corbin Carroll, Trevor Larnach, Henry Bolte, Chase DeLauter, Nolan Arenado, Luke Keaschall, Geraldo Perdomo, Javier Sanoja, Nico Hoerner
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.