MLB Home Run Predictions — August 2, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-02: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 2, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
27
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
1/15
Top-15 picks that homered
48.3 vs 46.0
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #8 | Matt Olson | Cade Cavalli | 69 | C+ Value |
| #16 | Bryce Harper | Kyle Bradish | 64 | C+ Value |
| #21 | Sal Stewart | Mitch Keller | 63 | C+ Value |
| #34 | Miguel Vargas | Griffin Jax | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #36 | Wilyer Abreu | Emmet Sheehan | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #43 | Ceddanne Rafaela | Emmet Sheehan | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #52 | Jeremy Peña | Kumar Rocker | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #72 | Jake McCarthy | Seth Lugo | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #73 | Jarren Duran | Emmet Sheehan | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #85 | Cal Raleigh | Taj Bradley | 49 | D Below |
| #86 | Tyler Stephenson | Mitch Keller | 49 | D Below |
| #88 | Royce Lewis | George Kirby | 49 | D Below |
| #96 | Rafael Devers | Kyle Hart | 48 | D Below |
| #100 | Brandon Nimmo | Peter Lambert | 48 | D Below |
| #111 | Andrew Benintendi | Griffin Jax | 47 | D Below |
| #115 | Joe Mack | NYM Bullpen Proxy | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #116 | Trevor Larnach | George Kirby | 46 | D Below |
| #127 | Mike Yastrzemski | Cade Cavalli | 45 | D Below |
| #128 | Patrick Bailey | Merrill Kelly | 45 | D Below |
| #148 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | Mitch Keller | 44 | D Below |
| #155 | Everson Pereira | Griffin Jax | 43 | D Below |
| #158 | Masataka Yoshida | Emmet Sheehan | 43 | D Below |
| #173 | José Caballero | Colin Rea | 41 | D Below |
| #192 | Jackson Merrill | Landen Roupp | 38 | D Below |
| #230 | Luke Keaschall | George Kirby | 32 | D Below |
| #237 | Ben Williamson | Anthony Kay | 30 | D Below |
| #239 | Wade Meckler | Jacob Misiorowski | 30 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Jeremy Peña, Jake McCarthy, Jarren Duran, Cal Raleigh, Tyler Stephenson, Royce Lewis, Rafael Devers, Brandon Nimmo, Andrew Benintendi, Joe Mack, Trevor Larnach, Mike Yastrzemski, Patrick Bailey, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Everson Pereira, Masataka Yoshida, José Caballero, Jackson Merrill, Luke Keaschall, Ben Williamson, Wade Meckler
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.