⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
Tyler Stephenson

Tyler Stephenson

RHB
CIN · 48 appearances tracked
3
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
6.2%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
13.4%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
92.8
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.143
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#3
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 27 games · 3 HRs in 48 games
Due (1×)
0.1×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
4
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
27
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
48
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
12
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
0
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
0%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#97.1
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
All Appearances
48 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-05-30 #144 Martín Pérez R/L * 10.9% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-29 #102 Grant Holmes R/R * 12.3% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-05-27 #183 Huascar Brazobán R/R * 13.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-26 #143 David Peterson R/L * 11.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-25 #167 Nolan McLean R/R * 10.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-05-24 #128 Brycen Mautz R/L * 8.9% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-05-23 #166 Andre Pallante R/R * 9.1% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-05-22 #88 Kyle Leahy R/R * 8.7% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-05-19 #103 Jesús Luzardo R/L * 8.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-18 #79 Andrew Painter R/R * 12.5% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-17 #166 Gavin Williams R/R * 9.4% ⚪ D ❄ COLD 🔥 ·
2026-05-15 #120 Tanner Bibee R/R * 8.2% ⚪ D ❄ COLD 🔥 ·
2026-05-13 #121 Jake Irvin R/R * 10.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 💥
2026-05-12 #84 Miles Mikolas R/R * 11.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-10 #44 Kai-Wei Teng R/R * 7.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-09 #52 Spencer Arrighetti R/R * 9.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-08 #35 Mike Burrows R/R * 8.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-07 #71 Shota Imanaga R/L * 6.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-06 #121 Colin Rea R/R * 7.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-05 #102 Jameson Taillon R/R * 11.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-04 #90 Edward Cabrera R/R * 8.4% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-03 #234 Braxton Ashcraft R/R * 5.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-02 #222 Carmen Mlodzinski R/R * 4.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 🔥 ·
2026-05-01 #232 Mitch Keller R/R * 4.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 🔥 ·
2026-04-30 #80 Michael Lorenzen R/R * 9.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 🔥 ·
2026-04-29 #40 Tomoyuki Sugano R/R * 12.1% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-04-25 #59 Jack Flaherty R/R 8.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-04-24 #68 Framber Valdez R/L 7.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-04-22 #89 Nick Martinez R/R 7.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 🔥 ·
2026-04-21 #92 Steven Matz R/L 7.4% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 🔥 ·
2026-04-19 #165 Bailey Ober R/R 7.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-18 #157 Taj Bradley R/R 7.2% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-17 #128 Joe Ryan R/R 12.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-14 #13 Robbie Ray R/L 28.3% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-11 #3 George Klassen R/R 43.0% 🔥 A+ 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-04-10 #9 Jack Kochanowicz R/R 31.9% 🟢 A 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-04-09 #5 Max Meyer R/R 30.5% 🟢 A 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-04-08 #23 Eury Pérez R/R 21.2% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-04-07 #11 Sandy Alcantara R/R 24.4% 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-04-06 #72 Janson Junk R/R 11.9% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ 💥
2026-04-05 #123 Jack Leiter R/R 11.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-04 #38 Kumar Rocker R/R 15.1% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-01 #91 Paul Skenes R/R 12.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-31 #82 Bubba Chandler R/ 13.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-30 #128 Braxton Ashcraft R/R 11.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-29 #175 Connelly Early R/L 2.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-28 #9 Sonny Gray · 19.2% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-03-26 #3 Garrett Crochet · 20.1% 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT ·

Tyler Stephenson's full profile is waiting

Create an account or upgrade to see the complete rank trend, HR history, matchup log, and every signal behind this batter profile.

44 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.70

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.