36
HRs allowed
14.9%
HR rate (pool)
16.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.99
FIP
3.72
xFIP
+0.27
FIP − xFIP gap
#5
Leakiest SP today (of 28, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
75
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 75th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
19.4%
Hard-Hit% allowed
69.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.9 EV · 401 ft
max EV allowed 116.3
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR
15D · 5 HR ↑
30D · 9 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 47.6%
OFF 32.6%
BRK 19.8%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 6
Long shots · 1 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (47.6% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
41.2%
83.7
34.3°
13
-0.2
Splitter Offspeed
32.6%
79.2
10.8°
9
-0.5
Sweeper Breaking
15.0%
80.7
25.0°
5
+1.5
Sinker Hard
6.4%
87.7
9.1°
3
+0.3
Curveball Breaking
2.7%
76.3
-12.5°
0
-0.9
Slider Breaking
2.1%
76.4
4.9°
0
-0.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups242
HRs allowed (pool)36
Pool HR rate14.9%
Pool HR/game day1.29
Top-15 matchups23
HRs to top-158
Overall HR/FB16.6% 75
HR/9—
FIP3.99 48
xFIP3.72
FIP − xFIP+0.27 65
Barrel% allowed19.4%
Hard-Hit% allowed69.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Fastball
Hard · 41.2% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle34.3°
HRs allowed13
Pitches990
Splitter
Offspeed · 32.6% usage
-0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.2 mph
Avg launch angle10.8°
HRs allowed9
Pitches782
Sweeper
Breaking · 15.0% usage
+1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.7 mph
Avg launch angle25.0°
HRs allowed5
Pitches360
Sinker
Hard · 6.4% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.7 mph
Avg launch angle9.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches153
Curveball
Breaking · 2.7% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.3 mph
Avg launch angle-12.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches64
Slider
Breaking · 2.1% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.4 mph
Avg launch angle4.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches51
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
36 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.9 EV · 401 ft
9 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-23
9
1
103.2
2026-08-17
9
1
107.9
2026-08-11
8
3
106.2
2026-08-05
9
2
110.2
2026-07-31
9
2
108.7
2026-07-25
9
0
104.0
2026-07-19
9
0
109.6
2026-07-10
9
2
109.2
2026-07-04
9
1
112.1
2026-06-29
8
0
106.4
2026-06-24
9
4
108.4
2026-06-22
7
0
—
2026-06-21
8
0
—
2026-06-15
8
0
111.1
2026-06-10
7
1
104.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Wrigley Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.090
Wind
9 mph from SSW
Temp
81°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:20p
9
81°
+12
7:20p
8
80°
+11
8:20p
7
78°
+9
9:20p
7
77°
+9
10:20p
6
76°
+8
+10
Slight green alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 7 mph from S
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
355ft
deep
CF
400ft
avg
RF
353ft
deep
vs LHH → RF
355ft
10 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF ▲ leans
356ft
15 HRs allowed
Shortest: LF 351 ft
HRs allowed avg 401 ft · n=36
Longest LF/RF lines; wind-dependent
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
130
17
13%
16
4
25%
9
3
33%
8
3
38%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 12. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Shota Imanaga
Is Shota Imanaga likely to give up a home run tonight?
Shota Imanaga pitches tonight (CIN @ CHC at Wrigley Field). This season he has allowed 36 home runs across 28 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Shota Imanaga allowed this season?
Shota Imanaga has allowed 36 home runs across 28 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Shota Imanaga?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Shota Imanaga include Bryce Harper (2), Elly De La Cruz (2), Jonah Heim (2) and 49 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.