MLB Home Run Predictions — August 11, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-11: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 11, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
32
HRs by scored batters
3/5
Top-5 picks that homered
5/15
Top-15 picks that homered
48.8 vs 42.3
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Junior Caminero | Mason Barnett | 76 | B AboveAvg |
| #2 | Matt Olson | Nolan McLean | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #4 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Jake Irvin | 69 | C+ Value |
| #8 | CJ Abrams | Shota Imanaga | 62 | C+ Value |
| #12 | Joc Pederson | Ryan Johnson | 60 | C+ Value |
| #16 | Miguel Vargas | Nick Lodolo | 60 | C+ Value |
| #21 | Pete Alonso | Bailey Ober | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #23 | Seiya Suzuki | Jake Irvin | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #27 | Corbin Carroll | Tomoyuki Sugano | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #33 | Yandy Díaz | Mason Barnett | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #39 | Ketel Marte | Tomoyuki Sugano | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #54 | Dylan Crews | Shota Imanaga | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #55 | Eugenio Suárez | Sean Burke | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #64 | Wilyer Abreu | Dylan Cease | 49 | D Below |
| #79 | Randy Arozarena | Ryan Weathers | 47 | D Below |
| #90 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Bailey Ober | 46 | D Below |
| #95 | Mookie Betts | Michael Wacha | 45 | D Below |
| #96 | Lawrence Butler | Nick Martinez | 45 | D Below |
| #100 | Alex Bregman | Jake Irvin | 44 | D Below |
| #101 | Jacob Young | Shota Imanaga | 44 | D Below |
| #106 | Ozzie Albies | Nolan McLean | 44 | D Below |
| #108 | Gunnar Henderson | Bailey Ober | 44 | D Below |
| #126 | Bryce Eldridge | Hunter Brown | 41 | D Below |
| #136 | Everson Pereira | Cristopher Sánchez | 40 | D Below |
| #137 | Ceddanne Rafaela | Dylan Cease | 40 | D Below |
| #145 | Kyle Karros | Mitch Bratt | 40 | D Below |
| #154 | Jo Adell | Drew Anderson | 38 | D Below |
| #161 | Chase DeLauter | Drew Anderson | 37 | D Below |
| #165 | Esteury Ruiz | Paul Skenes | 37 | D Below |
| #169 | Taylor Walls | Mason Barnett | 37 | D Below |
| #178 | Brenton Doyle | Nick Lodolo | 35 | D Below |
| #198 | Edgar Quero | Nick Lodolo | 31 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Dylan Crews, Eugenio Suárez, Wilyer Abreu, Randy Arozarena, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Mookie Betts, Lawrence Butler, Alex Bregman, Jacob Young, Ozzie Albies, Gunnar Henderson, Bryce Eldridge, Everson Pereira, Ceddanne Rafaela, Kyle Karros, Jo Adell, Chase DeLauter, Esteury Ruiz, Taylor Walls, Brenton Doyle, Edgar Quero
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.