MLB Home Run Predictions — August 12, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-12: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 12, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #13 | Shohei Ohtani | Daniel Lynch IV | 61 | C+ Value |
| #26 | Corbin Carroll | Ryan Feltner | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #28 | Dominic Canzone | Will Warren | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #29 | Willson Contreras | José Soriano | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #45 | Griffin Conine | Carmen Mlodzinski | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #49 | Zack Gelof | Drew Rasmussen | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #60 | Austin Riley | Zac Thornton | 49 | D Below |
| #61 | Julio Rodríguez | Will Warren | 49 | D Below |
| #63 | Trent Grisham | Bryce Miller | 49 | D Below |
| #68 | Gary Sánchez | Robbie Ray | 48 | D Below |
| #70 | Liam Hicks | Jack Perkins | 48 | D Below |
| #71 | Randy Arozarena | Will Warren | 48 | D Below |
| #75 | Corey Seager | George Klassen | 48 | D Below |
| #81 | Dansby Swanson | WSH Bullpen Proxy | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #87 | Lane Thomas | Zac Thornton | 46 | D Below |
| #92 | Brett Sullivan | Merrill Kelly | 45 | D Below |
| #108 | Heriberto Hernández | Carmen Mlodzinski | 44 | D Below |
| #113 | Lawrence Butler | Drew Rasmussen | 43 | D Below |
| #114 | Luis Torrens | Tyler Mahle | 43 | D Below |
| #119 | Mookie Betts | Daniel Lynch IV | 43 | D Below |
| #144 | Chase Meidroth | Rhett Lowder | 40 | D Below |
| #146 | Bo Bichette | Tyler Mahle | 40 | D Below |
| #153 | Jo Adell | Framber Valdez | 39 | D Below |
| #157 | Drew Romo | Rhett Lowder | 39 | D Below |
| #161 | Alex Bregman | WSH Bullpen Proxy | 42 | D Below |
| #165 | Leody Taveras | Zebby Matthews | 38 | D Below |
| #168 | Gleyber Torres | Foster Griffin | 37 | D Below |
| #178 | Dylan Beavers | Zebby Matthews | 36 | D Below |
| #216 | Xander Bogaerts | Dustin May | 28 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Austin Riley, Julio Rodríguez, Trent Grisham, Gary Sánchez, Liam Hicks, Randy Arozarena, Corey Seager, Dansby Swanson, Lane Thomas, Brett Sullivan, Heriberto Hernández, Lawrence Butler, Luis Torrens, Mookie Betts, Chase Meidroth, Bo Bichette, Jo Adell, Drew Romo, Alex Bregman, Leody Taveras, Gleyber Torres, Dylan Beavers, Xander Bogaerts