⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
Chase Meidroth
Chase Meidroth
CWS RHB · vs Keider Montero · 2:10p
Chase Meidroth

Chase Meidroth

RHB
CWS · 42 appearances tracked
3
HRs ?Total home runs hit while this batter appeared in the model's scored pool this season.
7.1%
HR Rate ?Percentage of scored appearances where this batter hit a home run. Higher = more reliable power output.
10.4%
Avg HR/FB ?Average HR-per-fly-ball rate across appearances. Measures how often fly balls leave the yard — above 16% is elite, above 12% is strong.
87.8
Avg EV ?Average exit velocity (mph) on batted balls. Hard contact is the best predictor of HR power — 92+ is elite, 89+ is strong.
0.099
ISO ?Isolated Power — measures raw extra-base-hit ability (SLG minus AVG). .220+ is elite power, .180+ is above average.
#33
Best Rank ?Highest model ranking this batter has achieved on a single slate. #1 means the model rated them the top HR candidate that day.
Today's Matchup DET @ CWS · 2:10p
Keider Montero (RHP)
HR/FB 11.8% ?Pitcher's HR-per-fly-ball rate. Higher = more HR-prone. League avg is ~12%. HR/9 1.16 ?Home runs allowed per 9 innings. Higher = pitcher gives up more longballs. FIP 4.27 ?Fielding Independent Pitching — isolates pitcher skill from defense. Higher FIP = more HR-vulnerable.
#133 ⚪ D
Rate Field Park × 1.072 ?Park factor for this stadium. Values above 1.0 boost HR probability; below 1.0 suppress it. Based on multi-year park HR data.
HR Profile Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
0.130
ISO ?Isolated Power (SLG − AVG). >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg.
31th pctile
87.9
Avg EV (mph) ?Average exit velocity (mph) on all batted balls. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg.
30th pctile
7.7%
Barrel% ?Percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA combo). >12% elite.
38th pctile
16.7%
HR/FB ?Home runs per fly ball. >18% elite, league avg ~12%.
76th pctile
384
Avg HR Dist (ft) ?Average distance of this batter's HRs in feet. >400 elite raw power.
22th pctile
7.1%
Season HR% ?HRs ÷ plate appearances this season. v3.5 model feature — strongest single backtest contributor.
15.4%
14d Pace ?HRs per game over last 14 days. v3.5 model feature — captures current hot/cold streak.
8.4%
Match% ?Combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate — the headline "how favorable is this matchup" number.
25th pctile
41
BBE ?Batted-ball events — sample size. Treat stats with caution below 30.
HR Cadence Typically goes yard every 11 games · 3 HRs in 42 games
Due (1×)
0.3×
Dueness ?Games since last HR ÷ typical cadence. 1.0× = right on schedule. Above 1.0× = overdue relative to their own baseline. 1.5×+ = significantly overdue.
3
Games Since HR ?How many games (appearances in the scored pool) since this batter's last home run.
11
Typical Cadence ?Median number of games between home runs this season. Uses median (not average) for robustness against streaky outliers. Requires 3+ HRs to establish a baseline.
Games between HRs ?Each bar = the number of games between consecutive HRs. The final highlighted bar is the current gap (still open). Bars above the typical cadence are colored differently.
42
Appearances ?Total times this batter has appeared in the model's daily scored pool this season.
1
Top-50 Days ?Number of days this batter ranked in the top 50 on the slate. Top-50 is the model's primary recommendation zone.
0
HRs in Top 50 ?Home runs hit on days when the model ranked this batter in the top 50. Measures how often the model correctly surfaced this batter before they went deep.
0%
Catch Rate ?Percentage of this batter's HRs that occurred when the model had them ranked in the top 50. Higher = model does a good job timing this batter. 60%+ is excellent.
#184.6
Avg Rank ?This batter's average model rank across all appearances. Lower = the model consistently rates them highly.
Rank Trend
lower rank = better · green dots = HR days
All Appearances
42 total · newest first
DateRankPitcher B/P HR/FB Tier Form WT BP HR?
2026-05-30 #173 Framber Valdez R/L * 7.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-29 #143 Troy Melton R/R * 9.1% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-28 #33 Simeon Woods Richardson R/R * 9.2% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-27 #143 Connor Prielipp R/L * 9.0% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-26 #85 Joe Ryan R/R * 7.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-25 #108 Zebby Matthews R/R * 11.6% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-24 #177 Robbie Ray R/L * 6.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ 💥
2026-05-23 #204 Adrian Houser R/R * 8.3% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-05-22 #223 Trevor McDonald R/R * 9.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-20 #216 Emerson Hancock R/R * 8.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-19 #215 Bryce Miller R/R * 8.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-18 #217 Bryan Woo R/R * 8.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-17 #197 Colin Rea R/R * 12.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-16 #171 Jameson Taillon R/R * 15.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-15 #199 Edward Cabrera R/R * 15.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-14 #162 Kris Bubic R/L * 6.3% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-13 #242 Seth Lugo R/R * 9.8% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-05-12 #242 Stephen Kolek R/R * 7.8% ⚪ D ❄ COLD 🔥 💥
2026-05-10 #230 Logan Gilbert R/R * 8.0% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-09 #234 Luis Castillo R/R * 7.1% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-08 #238 Emerson Hancock R/R * 7.5% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-06 #234 Walbert Ureña R/R * 8.3% ⚪ D ❄ COLD 🔥 ·
2026-05-04 #177 José Soriano R/R * 4.6% ⚪ D ❄ COLD 🔥 ·
2026-05-03 #220 Griffin Canning R/R * 6.2% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-05-02 #244 Michael King R/R * 8.0% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-05-01 #236 Germán Márquez R/R * 7.8% ⚪ D ❄ COLD ⚠️ ·
2026-04-29 #247 Yusei Kikuchi R/L * 5.5% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-04-28 #215 José Soriano R/R * 4.7% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ⚠️ ·
2026-04-27 #124 Jack Kochanowicz R/R * 6.3% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ⚠️ ·
2026-04-26 #225 Foster Griffin R/L * 6.0% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-04-25 #217 Jake Irvin R/R 7.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-04-24 #174 PJ Poulin R/L 7.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-04-23 #138 Michael Soroka R/R 5.9% ⚪ D 📉 COOL 🔥 ·
2026-04-22 #224 Eduardo Rodriguez R/L 5.5% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-04-21 #198 Merrill Kelly R/R 5.7% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ⚠️ ·
2026-04-19 #132 Jeffrey Springs R/L 6.7% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-18 #111 Luis Severino R/R 8.9% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-17 #97 Aaron Civale R/R 8.6% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 #142 Steven Matz R/L 6.6% ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-14 #115 Shane McClanahan R/L 3.5% ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-10 #238 Kris Bubic R/L 3.0% ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-29 #193 Brandon Sproat R/R 0.7% ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·

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