2026
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15-Day HR Leaders
1 Cody Bellinger 6 HRs · 2 Pete Alonso 6 HRs · 3 Nolan Arenado 6 HRs · 4 Elly De La Cruz 5 HRs · 5 Isaac Paredes 5 HRs · 6 Kyle Tucker 5 HRs · 7 William Contreras 4 HRs · 8 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 9 Travis Bazzana 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Max Muncy 4 HRs · 12 Brandon Lowe 4 HRs 1 Cody Bellinger 6 HRs · 2 Pete Alonso 6 HRs · 3 Nolan Arenado 6 HRs · 4 Elly De La Cruz 5 HRs · 5 Isaac Paredes 5 HRs · 6 Kyle Tucker 5 HRs · 7 William Contreras 4 HRs · 8 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 9 Travis Bazzana 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Max Muncy 4 HRs · 12 Brandon Lowe 4 HRs

MLB Home Run Predictions — September 22, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-09-22: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 22, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

22
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
51.2 vs 44.3
Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-09-22.
Top 5
1/5
20.0%
Top 10
2/10
20.0%
Top 15
3/15
20.0%
Top 25
6/25
24.0%

Home runs, graded

22 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.
RankBatterVs pitcherScoreTier
#3 Elly De La Cruz JR Ritchie
Truist Park
 70 B AboveAvg
#7 Yordan Álvarez Logan Gilbert
T-Mobile Park
 66 C+ Value
#13 Eugenio Suárez JR Ritchie
Truist Park
 63 C+ Value
#16 Munetaka Murakami Daniel Lynch IV
Kauffman Stadium
 62 C+ Value
#18 Zack Gelof Yusei Kikuchi
Sutter Health Park
 61 C+ Value
#25 Kyle Stowers Shota Imanaga
Wrigley Field
 59 C BelowAvg
#28 Nolan Arenado Kyle Freeland
Coors Field
 58 C BelowAvg
#68 Randal Grichuk Daniel Lynch IV
Kauffman Stadium
 52 C BelowAvg
#76 Mickey Moniak Michael Soroka
Coors Field
 51 C BelowAvg
#77 Christian Walker Logan Gilbert
T-Mobile Park
 51 C BelowAvg
#80 CJ Abrams Drew Anderson
Comerica Park
 50 C BelowAvg
#83 Cody Bellinger Nick Martinez
Yankee Stadium
 50 C BelowAvg
#85 Vinnie Pasquantino Anthony Kay
Kauffman Stadium
 50 C BelowAvg
#92 Isaac Paredes Logan Gilbert
T-Mobile Park
 48 D Below
#101 Cody Bellinger Drew Rasmussen
Yankee Stadium
 47 D Below
#127 Carlos Cortes Yusei Kikuchi
Sutter Health Park
 45 D Below
#139 Brandon Marsh Dustin May
Citizens Bank Park
 44 D Below
#142 Dane Myers JR Ritchie
Truist Park
 43 D Below
#148 Tommy Edman Michael King
Dodger Stadium
 42 D Below
#165 Nick Loftin Anthony Kay
Kauffman Stadium
 40 D Below
#168 Chase Meidroth Daniel Lynch IV
Kauffman Stadium
 39 D Below
#206 Brenton Doyle Daniel Lynch IV
Kauffman Stadium
 35 D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Randal Grichuk, Mickey Moniak, Christian Walker, CJ Abrams, Cody Bellinger, Vinnie Pasquantino, Isaac Paredes, Cody Bellinger, Carlos Cortes, Brandon Marsh, Dane Myers, Tommy Edman, Nick Loftin, Chase Meidroth, Brenton Doyle

← 2026-09-21 Today's predictions
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.
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