MLB Home Run Predictions — September 21, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-21: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 21, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
7
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
42.3 vs 40.4
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Pete Alonso | Trey Yesavage | 63 | C+ Value |
| #10 | Spencer Torkelson | WSH Bullpen Proxy | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #14 | Gunnar Henderson | Trey Yesavage | 44 | D Below |
| #23 | Brooks Lee | Blade Tidwell | 38 | D Below |
| #25 | Drew Gilbert | Zebby Matthews | 37 | D Below |
| #36 | Ben Malgeri | WSH Bullpen Proxy | 33 | D Below |
| #44 | Javier Báez | WSH Bullpen Proxy | 28 | D Below |
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.