MLB Home Run Predictions — September 20, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-20: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 20, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
27
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.3 vs 43.0
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Rhett Lowder | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| #6 | Hunter Goodman | Kade Anderson | 66 | C+ Value |
| #29 | Victor Mesa Jr. | Patrick Sandoval | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #33 | Michael Conforto | Rhett Lowder | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #35 | Seiya Suzuki | Rhett Lowder | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #36 | Rafael Flores Jr. | Michael Wacha | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #39 | Oneil Cruz | Michael Wacha | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #61 | JJ Bleday | David Peterson | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #66 | Nolan Arenado | Will Warren | 49 | D Below |
| #73 | Spencer Jones | Corbin Burnes | 49 | D Below |
| #86 | Jake Burger | Spencer Miles | 47 | D Below |
| #87 | William Contreras | Brandon Young | 47 | D Below |
| #90 | Mike Yastrzemski | Hunter Brown | 47 | D Below |
| #91 | Yainer Diaz | Martín Pérez | 47 | D Below |
| #96 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Sandy Alcantara | 46 | D Below |
| #97 | Heliot Ramos | Corbin Burnes | 46 | D Below |
| #121 | CJ Abrams | Quinn Mathews | 44 | D Below |
| #129 | Jose Altuve | Martín Pérez | 43 | D Below |
| #145 | Tommy Edman | Matt Wilkinson | 41 | D Below |
| #160 | George Lombard Jr. | Corbin Burnes | 39 | D Below |
| #167 | Trevor Story | Griffin Jax | 39 | D Below |
| #174 | Chase Meidroth | Troy Melton | 38 | D Below |
| #199 | Javier Sanoja | Walker Buehler | 36 | D Below |
| #204 | Iván Herrera | Jake Irvin | 36 | D Below |
| #208 | Bo Bichette | Cristopher Sánchez | 35 | D Below |
| #235 | Alan Roden | Ryan Johnson | 32 | D Below |
| #253 | Jake Cronenworth | Sandy Alcantara | 26 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
JJ Bleday, Nolan Arenado, Spencer Jones, Jake Burger, William Contreras, Mike Yastrzemski, Yainer Diaz, Fernando Tatis Jr., Heliot Ramos, CJ Abrams, Jose Altuve, Tommy Edman, George Lombard Jr., Trevor Story, Chase Meidroth, Javier Sanoja, Iván Herrera, Bo Bichette, Alan Roden, Jake Cronenworth
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.