MLB Home Run Predictions — September 19, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-19: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 19, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
27
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
0/15
Top-15 picks that homered
45.5 vs 43.3
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #17 | Miguel Vargas | Jackson Jobe | 61 | C+ Value |
| #21 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Hayden Wesneski | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #32 | Dansby Swanson | Nick Lodolo | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #36 | Cal Raleigh | Jose Quintana | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #38 | Brandon Lowe | Noah Cameron | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #39 | Randy Arozarena | Jose Quintana | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #44 | Isaac Paredes | Grant Holmes | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #51 | Michael Busch | Nick Lodolo | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #52 | Carter Jensen | Bubba Chandler | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #59 | Jonathan Aranda | Brayan Bello | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #71 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Eury Pérez | 49 | D Below |
| #85 | Francisco Alvarez | Andrew Painter | 48 | D Below |
| #90 | Angel Martínez | Jacob Lopez | 47 | D Below |
| #93 | Will Smith | Yunior Marte | 47 | D Below |
| #109 | Mike Yastrzemski | Hayden Wesneski | 45 | D Below |
| #121 | Victor Bericoto | Tarik Skubal | 43 | D Below |
| #128 | Carson Benge | Andrew Painter | 43 | D Below |
| #132 | Chase DeLauter | Jacob Lopez | 43 | D Below |
| #136 | Josh Jung | José Soriano | 43 | D Below |
| #138 | Donovan Walton | Tanner Bibee | 42 | D Below |
| #144 | Daylen Lile | Michael McGreevy | 42 | D Below |
| #163 | Austin Wells | Brandon Pfaadt | 39 | D Below |
| #206 | Vaughn Grissom | Joe Ryan | 35 | D Below |
| #220 | Otto Lopez | Casey Mize | 32 | D Below |
| #224 | Ronny Simon | Noah Cameron | 31 | D Below |
| #234 | Samad Taylor | Eury Pérez | 27 | D Below |
| #242 | Jake Mangum | Noah Cameron | 25 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Michael Busch, Carter Jensen, Jonathan Aranda, Fernando Tatis Jr., Francisco Alvarez, Angel Martínez, Will Smith, Mike Yastrzemski, Victor Bericoto, Carson Benge, Chase DeLauter, Josh Jung, Donovan Walton, Daylen Lile, Austin Wells, Vaughn Grissom, Otto Lopez, Ronny Simon, Samad Taylor, Jake Mangum
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.