MLB Home Run Predictions — September 23, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-23: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 23, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
24
HRs by scored batters
2/5
Top-5 picks that homered
4/15
Top-15 picks that homered
52.3 vs 44.6
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Ben Rice | Mason Englert | 75 | B AboveAvg |
| #5 | Pete Alonso | Max Scherzer | 69 | C+ Value |
| #8 | Matt Olson | Andrew Abbott | 68 | C+ Value |
| #12 | Pete Alonso | TOR Bullpen Proxy | 69 | C+ Value |
| #22 | Mike Trout | Jeffrey Springs | 62 | C+ Value |
| #26 | Brandon Lowe | Matthew Liberatore | 60 | C+ Value |
| #28 | Juan Soto | Cody Bradford | 60 | C+ Value |
| #35 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Max Scherzer | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #38 | Kyle Stowers | Kevin Gausman | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #53 | Brice Turang | Aaron Nola | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #62 | Vaughn Grissom | Jeffrey Springs | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #67 | George Lombard Jr. | Mason Englert | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #76 | Manny Machado | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #87 | Ryan McMahon | Mason Englert | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #94 | Christian Yelich | Aaron Nola | 49 | D Below |
| #95 | Austin Riley | Andrew Abbott | 49 | D Below |
| #101 | Tim Tawa | Mason Adams | 48 | D Below |
| #126 | Yainer Diaz | George Kirby | 45 | D Below |
| #141 | Ezequiel Tovar | Merrill Kelly | 44 | D Below |
| #160 | Cedric Mullins | Gerrit Cole | 41 | D Below |
| #172 | Ben Malgeri | Richard Lovelady | 40 | D Below |
| #185 | Juan Brito | Chris Sale | 39 | D Below |
| #194 | Marcus Semien | Cody Bradford | 38 | D Below |
| #256 | Luke Keaschall | Cesar Perdomo | 26 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Brice Turang, Vaughn Grissom, George Lombard Jr., Manny Machado, Ryan McMahon, Christian Yelich, Austin Riley, Tim Tawa, Yainer Diaz, Ezequiel Tovar, Cedric Mullins, Ben Malgeri, Juan Brito, Marcus Semien, Luke Keaschall
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.