12
HRs allowed
11.0%
HR rate (pool)
12.7%
Overall HR/FB
3.8
FIP
4.4
xFIP
-0.60
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
50
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 50th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
72.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 106.8 EV · 412 ft
max EV allowed 116.6
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR
30D · 5 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Connor Prielipp.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Slider Breaking
30.0%
82.7
10.5°
2
-0.6
Fastball Hard
29.8%
83.1
33.8°
2
+1.0
Curveball Breaking
17.4%
82.4
5.5°
1
+1.0
Changeup Offspeed
12.0%
84.0
11.1°
3
+0.4
Sinker Hard
10.8%
82.1
4.4°
0
+0.7
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups109
HRs allowed (pool)12
Pool HR rate11.0%
Pool HR/game day0.92
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB12.7% 50
HR/9—
FIP3.8 39
xFIP4.4
FIP − xFIP-0.60 16
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed72.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Slider
Breaking · 30.0% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.7 mph
Avg launch angle10.5°
HRs allowed2
Pitches347
Fastball
Hard · 29.8% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle33.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches344
Curveball
Breaking · 17.4% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle5.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches201
Changeup
Offspeed · 12.0% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle11.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches139
Sinker
Hard · 10.8% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.1 mph
Avg launch angle4.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches125
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Connor Prielipp.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
12 allowed · scored pool
avg 106.8 EV · 412 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 13 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-08
9
2
105.7
2026-06-28
8
0
102.3
2026-06-19
7
1
108.1
2026-06-13
7
2
116.6
2026-06-07
6
1
107.9
2026-06-02
9
0
101.5
2026-05-27
9
2
110.0
2026-05-22
9
0
102.2
2026-05-16
9
1
113.3
2026-05-08
9
1
106.3
2026-05-02
9
1
111.7
2026-04-27
9
1
109.9
2026-04-22
9
0
108.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Connor Prielipp isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.