19
HRs allowed
10.6%
HR rate (pool)
14.0%
Overall HR/FB
3.87
FIP
4.17
xFIP
-0.29
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
58
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 58th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
16.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed
67.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.2 EV · 404 ft
max EV allowed 116.6
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Connor Prielipp.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Slider Breaking
29.7%
81.9
9.1°
3
-0.9
Fastball Hard
26.4%
84.1
34.4°
6
+1.1
Curveball Breaking
18.6%
80.7
5.2°
1
-0.1
Sinker Hard
15.3%
85.1
11.4°
1
+0.3
Changeup Offspeed
10.0%
82.8
7.2°
3
+0.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups180
HRs allowed (pool)19
Pool HR rate10.6%
Pool HR/game day0.86
Top-15 matchups5
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB14.0% 58
HR/9—
FIP3.87 41
xFIP4.17
FIP − xFIP-0.29 26
Barrel% allowed16.1%
Hard-Hit% allowed67.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Slider
Breaking · 29.7% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle9.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches613
Fastball
Hard · 26.4% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.1 mph
Avg launch angle34.4°
HRs allowed6
Pitches546
Curveball
Breaking · 18.6% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.7 mph
Avg launch angle5.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches385
Sinker
Hard · 15.3% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.1 mph
Avg launch angle11.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches316
Changeup
Offspeed · 10.0% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.8 mph
Avg launch angle7.2°
HRs allowed3
Pitches207
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Connor Prielipp.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
19 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.2 EV · 404 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-23
8
0
103.0
2026-09-18
6
0
102.8
2026-09-12
9
0
106.6
2026-08-26
5
1
104.3
2026-08-21
8
1
110.2
2026-08-15
9
1
107.4
2026-08-09
9
2
107.2
2026-08-01
9
1
106.3
2026-07-26
8
1
105.7
2026-07-08
9
2
105.7
2026-06-28
8
0
102.3
2026-06-19
7
1
108.1
2026-06-13
7
2
116.6
2026-06-07
6
1
107.9
2026-06-02
9
0
101.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Connor Prielipp isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Connor Prielipp isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
92
10
11%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 12. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Connor Prielipp
How many home runs has Connor Prielipp allowed this season?
Connor Prielipp has allowed 19 home runs across 22 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Connor Prielipp?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Connor Prielipp include Jackson Chourio (2), Bo Naylor (1), Brayan Rocchio (1) and 15 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.