MLB Home Run Predictions — August 15, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-15: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 15, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
26
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
1/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.6 vs 44.1
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #15 | Pete Alonso | Ian Seymour | 61 | C+ Value |
| #29 | Eduardo Valencia | Anthony Kay | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #36 | Nolan Arenado | Grant Holmes | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Wilyer Abreu | Jared Jones | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #45 | Alec Burleson | Matthew Boyd | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #50 | Joe Mack | Brady Singer | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #52 | Wyatt Langford | J.T. Ginn | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #56 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Eduardo Rodriguez | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #57 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Ian Seymour | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #64 | Michael Conforto | Michael McGreevy | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #86 | Matt McLain | Ryan Gusto | 47 | D Below |
| #87 | Andrés Chaparro | Sean Manaea | 47 | D Below |
| #97 | Henry Bolte | MacKenzie Gore | 46 | D Below |
| #98 | Cole Young | Hayden Wesneski | 46 | D Below |
| #99 | Isaac Paredes | Emerson Hancock | 46 | D Below |
| #130 | Brady House | Sean Manaea | 43 | D Below |
| #136 | William Contreras | Justin Wrobleski | 43 | D Below |
| #143 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | Ryan Gusto | 42 | D Below |
| #157 | Carson Benge | Brad Lord | 40 | D Below |
| #162 | Ildemaro Vargas | Grant Holmes | 40 | D Below |
| #164 | Blaze Jordan | Matthew Boyd | 40 | D Below |
| #179 | Jakob Marsee | Brady Singer | 38 | D Below |
| #182 | Joey Ortiz | Justin Wrobleski | 38 | D Below |
| #183 | Bryson Stott | Connor Prielipp | 38 | D Below |
| #195 | Christian Vázquez | Emerson Hancock | 36 | D Below |
| #226 | Drew Gilbert | Michael Lorenzen | 30 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Wyatt Langford, Ronald Acuña Jr., Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Michael Conforto, Matt McLain, Andrés Chaparro, Henry Bolte, Cole Young, Isaac Paredes, Brady House, William Contreras, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Carson Benge, Ildemaro Vargas, Blaze Jordan, Jakob Marsee, Joey Ortiz, Bryson Stott, Christian Vázquez, Drew Gilbert
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.