MLB Home Run Predictions — August 16, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-16: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 16, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Matt Olson | Michael Soroka | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #5 | Munetaka Murakami | Drew Anderson | 65 | C+ Value |
| #9 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Hunter Dobbins | 62 | C+ Value |
| #10 | Alec Burleson | Edward Cabrera | 62 | C+ Value |
| #12 | Max Muncy | Cody Bradford | 62 | C+ Value |
| #16 | Heriberto Hernández | Nick Lodolo | 61 | C+ Value |
| #17 | Jordan Walker | Edward Cabrera | 61 | C+ Value |
| #18 | Max Muncy | Logan Henderson | 60 | C+ Value |
| #22 | Miguel Vargas | Drew Anderson | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #25 | Zack Gelof | Cody Bradford | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #34 | Jake Burger | Jacob Lopez | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #42 | Ben Rice | Dylan Cease | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #44 | Kody Clemens | Andrew Painter | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #49 | Randy Arozarena | Hunter Brown | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #63 | Cal Raleigh | Hunter Brown | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #68 | Andy Pages | Logan Henderson | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #75 | Lawrence Butler | Cody Bradford | 49 | D Below |
| #78 | Colton Cowser | Freddy Peralta | 48 | D Below |
| #79 | Jeremy Peña | Bryan Woo | 48 | D Below |
| #92 | Abimelec Ortiz | Christian Scott | 46 | D Below |
| #96 | Gavin Sheets | Tanner Bibee | 46 | D Below |
| #98 | Ryan Vilade | Trevor Rogers | 46 | D Below |
| #106 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Ryan Johnson | 46 | D Below |
| #109 | Luis Torrens | Jake Irvin | 45 | D Below |
| #119 | Gabriel Moreno | Bryce Elder | 44 | D Below |
| #126 | Rafael Devers | Gabriel Hughes | 43 | D Below |
| #128 | Miguel Amaya | Hunter Dobbins | 43 | D Below |
| #130 | Michael Massey | Ryan Johnson | 43 | D Below |
| #131 | Brooks Lee | Andrew Painter | 43 | D Below |
| #153 | Javier Sanoja | Nick Lodolo | 41 | D Below |
| #174 | Alec Bohm | Dean Kremer | 39 | D Below |
| #175 | Connor Wong | Lake Bachar | 38 | D Below |
| #183 | Drew Romo | Drew Anderson | 37 | D Below |
| #190 | Brett Sullivan | Blade Tidwell | 36 | D Below |
| #198 | Tommy White | Cody Bradford | 36 | D Below |
| #207 | Colt Keith | Sean Burke | 34 | D Below |
| #218 | Nick Allen | Bryan Woo | 33 | D Below |
| #222 | Luis Rengifo | Tanner Bibee | 32 | D Below |
| #229 | Jake Cronenworth | Tanner Bibee | 31 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Cal Raleigh, Andy Pages, Lawrence Butler, Colton Cowser, Jeremy Peña, Abimelec Ortiz, Gavin Sheets, Ryan Vilade, Bobby Witt Jr., Luis Torrens, Gabriel Moreno, Rafael Devers, Miguel Amaya, Michael Massey, Brooks Lee, Javier Sanoja, Alec Bohm, Connor Wong, Drew Romo, Brett Sullivan, Tommy White, Colt Keith, Nick Allen, Luis Rengifo, Jake Cronenworth