MLB Home Run Predictions — August 17, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-17: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 17, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
21
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
5/15
Top-15 picks that homered
49.4 vs 44.7
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | Shohei Ohtani | Tomoyuki Sugano | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #6 | Max Muncy | Tomoyuki Sugano | 69 | C+ Value |
| #8 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Luis Castillo | 66 | C+ Value |
| #14 | Seiya Suzuki | Luis Castillo | 60 | C+ Value |
| #15 | Pete Alonso | Shane McClanahan | 60 | C+ Value |
| #26 | Randal Grichuk | Shota Imanaga | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #34 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Shane McClanahan | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Willson Contreras | Mitch Bratt | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #42 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Mason Barnett | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #45 | Coby Mayo | Shane McClanahan | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #53 | Ryan Vilade | Brandon Young | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #78 | Yandy Díaz | Brandon Young | 46 | D Below |
| #85 | Iván Herrera | Rhett Lowder | 45 | D Below |
| #96 | Jorge Mateo | Brandon Young | 43 | D Below |
| #100 | Brian Serven | Michael Wacha | 42 | D Below |
| #116 | Iván Herrera | CIN Bullpen Proxy | 44 | D Below |
| #140 | Kevin McGonigle | Carmen Mlodzinski | 37 | D Below |
| #147 | Dane Myers | Quinn Mathews | 36 | D Below |
| #161 | Tommy White | Michael Wacha | 34 | D Below |
| #171 | Jeff McNeil | Michael Wacha | 30 | D Below |
| #172 | Mickey Gasper | Mitch Bratt | 30 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Ryan Vilade, Yandy Díaz, Iván Herrera, Jorge Mateo, Brian Serven, Iván Herrera, Kevin McGonigle, Dane Myers, Tommy White, Jeff McNeil, Mickey Gasper
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.