MLB Home Run Predictions — August 18, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-18: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 18, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 | Munetaka Murakami | Kevin Gausman | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #4 | Shohei Ohtani | Ryan Feltner | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #12 | Griffin Conine | Zack Wheeler | 62 | C+ Value |
| #15 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Bryan Hudson | 61 | C+ Value |
| #17 | Cam Smith | George Klassen | 61 | C+ Value |
| #51 | Bryce Eldridge | Foster Griffin | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #52 | Kazuma Okamoto | Nick Martinez | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #53 | Oneil Cruz | Keider Montero | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #57 | Drake Baldwin | Zebby Matthews | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #58 | Josh Lowe | Cristian Javier | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #61 | Coby Mayo | Carlos Rodón | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #65 | Jake Bauers | Bryce Miller | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #69 | Jo Adell | Carson Whisenhunt | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #73 | Willi Castro | Eric Lauer | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #75 | Trent Grisham | Shane Baz | 49 | D Below |
| #90 | Manny Machado | Zac Thornton | 48 | D Below |
| #93 | Justin Foscue | WSH Bullpen Proxy | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #104 | Luis Torrens | Robbie Ray | 46 | D Below |
| #114 | Josh Bell | Tyler Mahle | 45 | D Below |
| #126 | Adley Rutschman | Merrill Kelly | 44 | D Below |
| #134 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Zac Thornton | 43 | D Below |
| #161 | Michael Busch | Bryan Hudson | 40 | D Below |
| #167 | Alejandro Kirk | Nick Martinez | 39 | D Below |
| #176 | Luis Robert Jr. | Robbie Ray | 38 | D Below |
| #177 | Josh Smith | Nick Martinez | 38 | D Below |
| #182 | Mickey Gasper | Merrill Kelly | 38 | D Below |
| #194 | Christian Yelich | Bryce Miller | 37 | D Below |
| #208 | Masyn Winn | Andrew Abbott | 35 | D Below |
| #217 | Gabriel Moreno | Ranger Suarez | 33 | D Below |
| #232 | Luis Lara | Bryce Miller | 31 | D Below |
| #244 | David Hamilton | Bryce Miller | 27 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Bryce Eldridge, Kazuma Okamoto, Oneil Cruz, Drake Baldwin, Josh Lowe, Coby Mayo, Jake Bauers, Jo Adell, Willi Castro, Trent Grisham, Manny Machado, Justin Foscue, Luis Torrens, Josh Bell, Adley Rutschman, Fernando Tatis Jr., Michael Busch, Alejandro Kirk, Luis Robert Jr., Josh Smith, Mickey Gasper, Christian Yelich, Masyn Winn, Gabriel Moreno, Luis Lara, David Hamilton