MLB Home Run Predictions — August 19, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-19: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 19, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
23
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
47.9 vs 44.2
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #8 | Max Muncy | Kyle Freeland | 67 | C+ Value |
| #13 | Max Muncy | Seth Lugo | 63 | C+ Value |
| #15 | Ben Rice | Chris Bassitt | 63 | C+ Value |
| #16 | Pete Alonso | Will Warren | 62 | C+ Value |
| #24 | Mickey Moniak | Roki Sasaki | 60 | C+ Value |
| #25 | Brandon Lowe | Jackson Jobe | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #28 | Sal Stewart | Matthew Liberatore | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #43 | Yandy Díaz | Max Scherzer | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #46 | Jordan Walker | Chase Burns | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #47 | Andrés Chaparro | Kumar Rocker | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #71 | Mookie Betts | Kyle Freeland | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #105 | José Tena | Kumar Rocker | 45 | D Below |
| #128 | Javier Sanoja | Aaron Nola | 43 | D Below |
| #144 | Carson Benge | Michael King | 42 | D Below |
| #147 | Vinnie Pasquantino | Jeffrey Springs | 42 | D Below |
| #168 | Christian Vázquez | Walbert Ureña | 40 | D Below |
| #178 | Jarren Duran | Brandon Pfaadt | 39 | D Below |
| #197 | Dylan Beavers | Will Warren | 37 | D Below |
| #198 | Alejandro Kirk | Drew Rasmussen | 37 | D Below |
| #214 | Mickey Gasper | Brandon Pfaadt | 35 | D Below |
| #217 | Joey Ortiz | Logan Gilbert | 34 | D Below |
| #222 | Luis Arraez | Sandy Alcantara | 33 | D Below |
| #249 | Nick Sogard | Brandon Pfaadt | 28 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Mookie Betts, José Tena, Javier Sanoja, Carson Benge, Vinnie Pasquantino, Christian Vázquez, Jarren Duran, Dylan Beavers, Alejandro Kirk, Mickey Gasper, Joey Ortiz, Luis Arraez, Nick Sogard
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.