MLB Home Run Predictions — August 14, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-14: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 14, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
28
HRs by scored batters
2/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.6 vs 44.0
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 | Yordan Alvarez | George Kirby | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #4 | Munetaka Murakami | DET Bullpen Proxy | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #29 | Seiya Suzuki | Matthew Liberatore | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #32 | Christian Walker | George Kirby | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #33 | Miguel Vargas | DET Bullpen Proxy | 60 | C+ Value |
| #34 | Trent Grisham | Shane Bieber | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #35 | Jac Caglianone | Grayson Rodriguez | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #42 | Jake Burger | ATH Bullpen Proxy | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #57 | Gunnar Henderson | Steven Matz | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #67 | Lawrence Butler | Kumar Rocker | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #71 | Nathaniel Lowe | Michael King | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #72 | Brandon Lowe | Jake Bennett | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #73 | Andy Pages | Robert Gasser | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #78 | Colton Cowser | Steven Matz | 49 | D Below |
| #106 | Bryce Eldridge | Kyle Freeland | 44 | D Below |
| #108 | Francisco Lindor | Andrew Alvarez | 44 | D Below |
| #116 | Rafael Flores Jr. | Jake Bennett | 43 | D Below |
| #122 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Gavin Williams | 42 | D Below |
| #153 | Tim Tawa | Chris Sale | 39 | D Below |
| #156 | Michael Massey | Grayson Rodriguez | 38 | D Below |
| #157 | Jared Young | Andrew Alvarez | 37 | D Below |
| #161 | Xander Bogaerts | Gavin Williams | 36 | D Below |
| #168 | Josh Lowe | Seth Lugo | 36 | D Below |
| #181 | Jeff Mcneil | Kumar Rocker | 34 | D Below |
| #184 | Brayan Rocchio | Michael King | 34 | D Below |
| #203 | Ben Malgeri | Sean Newcomb | 30 | D Below |
| #204 | Alejandro Kirk | Gerrit Cole | 30 | D Below |
| #215 | Tristan Peters | DET Bullpen Proxy | 31 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Gunnar Henderson, Lawrence Butler, Nathaniel Lowe, Brandon Lowe, Andy Pages, Colton Cowser, Bryce Eldridge, Francisco Lindor, Rafael Flores Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Tim Tawa, Michael Massey, Jared Young, Xander Bogaerts, Josh Lowe, Jeff Mcneil, Brayan Rocchio, Ben Malgeri, Alejandro Kirk, Tristan Peters
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.