2026
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15-Day HR Leaders
1 Max Muncy 8 HRs · 2 Pete Alonso 6 HRs · 3 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 4 Jordan Walker 5 HRs · 5 Munetaka Murakami 5 HRs · 6 Lawrence Butler 4 HRs · 7 Miguel Vargas 4 HRs · 8 Matt Olson 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Trent Grisham 4 HRs · 11 Dylan Beavers 4 HRs · 12 Eugenio Suárez 4 HRs 1 Max Muncy 8 HRs · 2 Pete Alonso 6 HRs · 3 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 4 Jordan Walker 5 HRs · 5 Munetaka Murakami 5 HRs · 6 Lawrence Butler 4 HRs · 7 Miguel Vargas 4 HRs · 8 Matt Olson 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Trent Grisham 4 HRs · 11 Dylan Beavers 4 HRs · 12 Eugenio Suárez 4 HRs

MLB Home Run Predictions — August 21, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-08-21: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 21, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

25
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
6/15
Top-15 picks that homered
49.0 vs 42.4
Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-08-21.
Top 5
1/5
20.0%
Top 10
5/10
50.0%
Top 15
6/15
40.0%
Top 25
7/25
28.0%

Home runs, graded

25 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.
RankBatterVs pitcherScoreTier
#5 Max Muncy Hayden Wesneski
Minute Maid Park
 67 C+ Value
#7 Max Muncy Bubba Chandler
Dodger Stadium
 64 C+ Value
#8 Miguel Vargas Sean Manaea
Rate Field
 64 C+ Value
#9 Pete Crow-Armstrong Emerson Hancock
T-Mobile Park
 63 C+ Value
#10 Pete Alonso Freddy Peralta
Camden Yards
 63 C+ Value
#14 Jordan Walker Jesús Luzardo
Citizens Bank Park
 59 C BelowAvg
#17 Oneil Cruz Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Dodger Stadium
 59 C BelowAvg
#27 Colson Montgomery Sean Manaea
Rate Field
 56 C BelowAvg
#28 Randal Grichuk Sean Manaea
Rate Field
 56 C BelowAvg
#41 Willson Contreras Logan Webb
Fenway Park
 52 C BelowAvg
#49 Ian Happ Emerson Hancock
T-Mobile Park
 51 C BelowAvg
#60 Rafael Devers Sonny Gray
Fenway Park
 49 D Below
#65 Spencer Jones Mason Fluharty
Yankee Stadium
 49 D Below
#70 Ty France Connor Prielipp
Petco Park
 48 D Below
#81 Cal Raleigh Matthew Boyd
T-Mobile Park
 47 D Below
#93 Carter Jensen Troy Melton
Kauffman Stadium
 45 D Below
#121 Dylan Beavers Freddy Peralta
Camden Yards
 42 D Below
#140 Jake Rogers Sean Manaea
Rate Field
 41 D Below
#142 Alex Bregman Emerson Hancock
T-Mobile Park
 40 D Below
#174 Vinnie Pasquantino Troy Melton
Kauffman Stadium
 38 D Below
#183 Jordan Lawlar Nick Lodolo
Chase Field
 37 D Below
#185 Bo Bichette Sean Burke
Rate Field
 37 D Below
#201 Keibert Ruiz Ryan Gusto
loanDepot Park
 34 D Below
#210 Drew Gilbert Sonny Gray
Fenway Park
 32 D Below
#221 Kyle Isbel Troy Melton
Kauffman Stadium
 31 D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Rafael Devers, Spencer Jones, Ty France, Cal Raleigh, Carter Jensen, Dylan Beavers, Jake Rogers, Alex Bregman, Vinnie Pasquantino, Jordan Lawlar, Bo Bichette, Keibert Ruiz, Drew Gilbert, Kyle Isbel

← 2026-08-20 Today's predictions
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.
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