MLB Home Run Predictions — August 22, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-22: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 22, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | Kyle Schwarber | Quinn Mathews | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #20 | Mickey Moniak | Tanner Bibee | 60 | C+ Value |
| #26 | Bryce Harper | Quinn Mathews | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #41 | Heriberto Hernández | Jake Irvin | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #45 | Luis García Jr. | Dylan Cease | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #46 | Jake Bauers | Martín Pérez | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #69 | Nolan Arenado | Rhett Lowder | 48 | D Below |
| #70 | Jackson Merrill | Dean Kremer | 48 | D Below |
| #71 | Randy Arozarena | David Peterson | 48 | D Below |
| #73 | Jo Adell | Gabriel Hughes | 48 | D Below |
| #87 | Carson Benge | Luis Castillo | 47 | D Below |
| #96 | Elly De La Cruz | Michael Soroka | 46 | D Below |
| #100 | Donovan Walton | Hunter Brown | 46 | D Below |
| #101 | JJ Wetherholt | Andrew Painter | 46 | D Below |
| #107 | Jj Bleday | Michael Soroka | 45 | D Below |
| #114 | Luis Robert Jr. | Luis Castillo | 44 | D Below |
| #118 | Salvador Perez | Drew Anderson | 44 | D Below |
| #122 | Daulton Varsho | Jacob Lopez | 44 | D Below |
| #128 | Hao-Yu Lee | Michael Wacha | 43 | D Below |
| #132 | Bo Bichette | Luis Castillo | 43 | D Below |
| #140 | Willy Adames | Patrick Sandoval | 42 | D Below |
| #146 | Liam Hicks | Brandon Young | 41 | D Below |
| #161 | Tim Tawa | Rhett Lowder | 40 | D Below |
| #163 | Michael Busch | SEA Bullpen Proxy | 43 | D Below |
| #166 | Tristan Peters | Christian Scott | 39 | D Below |
| #167 | Matt Mclain | Michael Soroka | 39 | D Below |
| #189 | Alex Bregman | SEA Bullpen Proxy | 40 | D Below |
| #190 | Kyle Isbel | Drew Anderson | 36 | D Below |
| #192 | Braden Montgomery | Christian Scott | 36 | D Below |
| #194 | Brooks Lee | Casey Mize | 36 | D Below |
| #235 | Jakob Marsee | Jake Irvin | 31 | D Below |
| #246 | Luke Keaschall | Casey Mize | 26 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Nolan Arenado, Jackson Merrill, Randy Arozarena, Jo Adell, Carson Benge, Elly De La Cruz, Donovan Walton, JJ Wetherholt, Jj Bleday, Luis Robert Jr., Salvador Perez, Daulton Varsho, Hao-Yu Lee, Bo Bichette, Willy Adames, Liam Hicks, Tim Tawa, Michael Busch, Tristan Peters, Matt Mclain, Alex Bregman, Kyle Isbel, Braden Montgomery, Brooks Lee, Jakob Marsee, Luke Keaschall