MLB Home Run Predictions — August 23, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-23: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 23, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
28
HRs by scored batters
3/5
Top-5 picks that homered
4/15
Top-15 picks that homered
48.5 vs 43.6
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Max Muncy | Cristian Javier | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| #2 | Kyle Schwarber | Kyle Leahy | 73 | B AboveAvg |
| #3 | Max Muncy | Lake Bachar | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #8 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Bryce Miller | 65 | C+ Value |
| #21 | Brian Serven | Cristian Javier | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #31 | Trent Grisham | José Soriano | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Randy Arozarena | Shota Imanaga | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #46 | Ian Happ | Bryce Miller | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #61 | Zach Neto | Cal Quantrill | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #65 | Jackson Merrill | Bailey Ober | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #71 | Michael Conforto | Bryce Miller | 49 | D Below |
| #77 | Colton Cowser | Nick Martinez | 48 | D Below |
| #83 | Michael Harris II | Shane Drohan | 48 | D Below |
| #86 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | José Soriano | 47 | D Below |
| #104 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Bailey Ober | 46 | D Below |
| #115 | John Rave | Jacob Waguespack | 45 | D Below |
| #117 | Isaac Paredes | Brady Basso | 45 | D Below |
| #127 | Brooks Lee | Walker Buehler | 43 | D Below |
| #129 | Tristan Peters | Nolan McLean | 43 | D Below |
| #134 | Jose Altuve | Brady Basso | 43 | D Below |
| #148 | Ezequiel Duran | Yusei Kikuchi | 42 | D Below |
| #156 | Elias Díaz | Yusei Kikuchi | 41 | D Below |
| #173 | Nick Loftin | Jacob Waguespack | 39 | D Below |
| #187 | Kevin McGonigle | Daniel Lynch IV | 38 | D Below |
| #197 | Jonah Cox | Jake Bennett | 36 | D Below |
| #208 | Pedro Ramírez | Bryce Miller | 35 | D Below |
| #213 | José Fermín | Cristopher Sánchez | 34 | D Below |
| #245 | Nick Sogard | SF Bullpen Proxy | 31 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Zach Neto, Jackson Merrill, Michael Conforto, Colton Cowser, Michael Harris II, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., John Rave, Isaac Paredes, Brooks Lee, Tristan Peters, Jose Altuve, Ezequiel Duran, Elias Díaz, Nick Loftin, Kevin McGonigle, Jonah Cox, Pedro Ramírez, José Fermín, Nick Sogard
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.