MLB Home Run Predictions — August 9, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-09: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 9, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
25
HRs by scored batters
2/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
47.9 vs 41.4
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Shane Bieber | 73 | B AboveAvg |
| #4 | Matt Olson | Cam Schlittler | 68 | C+ Value |
| #14 | Hunter Goodman | Michael McGreevy | 61 | C+ Value |
| #21 | Pete Alonso | Kumar Rocker | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #24 | Griffin Conine | Grayson Rodriguez | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #27 | Colson Montgomery | Joey Cantillo | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #32 | Jake Bauers | Connor Prielipp | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #39 | Jackson Chourio | Connor Prielipp | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #43 | Brandon Nimmo | Cade Povich | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #54 | Tyler O'Neill | Kumar Rocker | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #61 | Trent Grisham | Grant Holmes | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #64 | Alec Burleson | Michael Lorenzen | 49 | D Below |
| #66 | Ian Happ | Randy Dobnak | 49 | D Below |
| #79 | Francisco Alvarez | Jared Jones | 47 | D Below |
| #81 | Ketel Marte | Justin Wrobleski | 47 | D Below |
| #88 | Jackson Merrill | Cristian Javier | 46 | D Below |
| #102 | Kody Clemens | Jacob Misiorowski | 43 | D Below |
| #106 | Jose Siri | Ryan Gusto | 42 | D Below |
| #110 | Colton Cowser | Kumar Rocker | 42 | D Below |
| #131 | Gavin Sheets | Cristian Javier | 40 | D Below |
| #178 | Miguel Amaya | Randy Dobnak | 36 | D Below |
| #185 | Starling Marte | Matthew Boyd | 35 | D Below |
| #195 | Brett Sullivan | Michael McGreevy | 33 | D Below |
| #196 | Brooks Lee | Jacob Misiorowski | 33 | D Below |
| #225 | Jake Mangum | Sean Manaea | 28 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Tyler O'Neill, Trent Grisham, Alec Burleson, Ian Happ, Francisco Alvarez, Ketel Marte, Jackson Merrill, Kody Clemens, Jose Siri, Colton Cowser, Gavin Sheets, Miguel Amaya, Starling Marte, Brett Sullivan, Brooks Lee, Jake Mangum
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.