MLB Home Run Predictions — August 10, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-10: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 10, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
15
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
42.7 vs 41.6
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Junior Caminero | Jacob Lopez | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #9 | Jac Caglianone | Tarik Skubal | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #19 | Francisco Lindor | Bryce Elder | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #31 | Yandy Díaz | Jacob Lopez | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #34 | Mike Trout | MacKenzie Gore | 49 | D Below |
| #38 | Ty France | Logan Henderson | 47 | D Below |
| #55 | Jackson Merrill | Logan Henderson | 44 | D Below |
| #65 | Josh Bell | Trevor Rogers | 43 | D Below |
| #71 | Brett Baty | Bryce Elder | 42 | D Below |
| #74 | Nolan Arenado | Gabriel Hughes | 41 | D Below |
| #100 | Cam Smith | Blade Tidwell | 36 | D Below |
| #116 | Christian Yelich | Casey Mize | 33 | D Below |
| #138 | Jung Hoo Lee | Hayden Wesneski | 25 | D Below |
| #141 | Austin Martin | Trevor Rogers | 25 | D Below |
| #143 | Drew Gilbert | Hayden Wesneski | 22 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Jackson Merrill, Josh Bell, Brett Baty, Nolan Arenado, Cam Smith, Christian Yelich, Jung Hoo Lee, Austin Martin, Drew Gilbert
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.