MLB Home Run Predictions — September 11, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-11: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 11, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
27
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
48.3 vs 43.0
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 | Junior Caminero | Miguel Ullola | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #12 | Matt Olson | Aaron Nola | 65 | C+ Value |
| #16 | Coby Mayo | Max Scherzer | 61 | C+ Value |
| #18 | Ben Rice | Nolan McLean | 61 | C+ Value |
| #26 | Rafael Devers | Robbie Ray | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #27 | Victor Mesa Jr. | Miguel Ullola | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #38 | Kazuma Okamoto | Chris Bassitt | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #40 | Jake Bauers | Andrew Abbott | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #42 | Bryan Reynolds | Shota Imanaga | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #58 | Mike Trout | Cade Cavalli | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #60 | Mickey Gasper | Seth Lugo | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #68 | Dillon Dingler | Mason Adams | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #73 | Austin Riley | Aaron Nola | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #77 | Alex Bregman | Wilber Dotel | 49 | D Below |
| #82 | Corbin Carroll | MacKenzie Gore | 49 | D Below |
| #88 | Angel Martínez | Taj Bradley | 47 | D Below |
| #95 | Lawrence Butler | George Kirby | 46 | D Below |
| #113 | William Contreras | Andrew Abbott | 44 | D Below |
| #121 | Nolan Arenado | MacKenzie Gore | 43 | D Below |
| #124 | Cody Bellinger | Nolan McLean | 43 | D Below |
| #136 | Garrett Mitchell | Andrew Abbott | 42 | D Below |
| #138 | Brice Turang | Andrew Abbott | 42 | D Below |
| #150 | A.J. Ewing | Carlos Rodón | 40 | D Below |
| #191 | Kyle Tucker | Ryan Gusto | 35 | D Below |
| #208 | Max Clark | Mason Adams | 32 | D Below |
| #218 | Chase Meidroth | Matthew Liberatore | 31 | D Below |
| #245 | Brett Bateman | Chris Bassitt | 22 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Mike Trout, Mickey Gasper, Dillon Dingler, Austin Riley, Alex Bregman, Corbin Carroll, Angel Martínez, Lawrence Butler, William Contreras, Nolan Arenado, Cody Bellinger, Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, A.J. Ewing, Kyle Tucker, Max Clark, Chase Meidroth, Brett Bateman
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.