MLB Home Run Predictions — September 12, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-12: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 12, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5 | Juan Soto | Gerrit Cole | 66 | C+ Value |
| #16 | Rafael Devers | Michael King | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #17 | Francisco Lindor | Gerrit Cole | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #25 | Dominic Canzone | Gage Jump | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #27 | Max Muncy | Tyler Phillips | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #30 | Hunter Goodman | Andrew Sears | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #33 | Bryce Harper | Tyler Mahle | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #35 | Randy Arozarena | Gage Jump | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Eugenio Suárez | Shane Drohan | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #39 | Michael Harris II | Tim Mayza | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #40 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Tim Mayza | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #49 | Pete Alonso | Spencer Miles | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #61 | Carter Jensen | Ranger Suarez | 49 | D Below |
| #70 | Ryan O'Hearn | Clay Holmes | 47 | D Below |
| #72 | William Contreras | Brady Singer | 47 | D Below |
| #76 | Cody Bellinger | Zac Thornton | 47 | D Below |
| #84 | Isaac Paredes | Ian Seymour | 46 | D Below |
| #86 | Garrett Mitchell | Brady Singer | 46 | D Below |
| #87 | Michael Busch | Paul Skenes | 46 | D Below |
| #90 | Brice Turang | Brady Singer | 45 | D Below |
| #98 | Mookie Betts | Tyler Phillips | 44 | D Below |
| #101 | Jared Young | Gerrit Cole | 44 | D Below |
| #102 | Luis Torrens | Gerrit Cole | 44 | D Below |
| #120 | Wyatt Langford | Brandon Pfaadt | 43 | D Below |
| #122 | Carson Benge | Gerrit Cole | 43 | D Below |
| #123 | Pedro Ramírez | Paul Skenes | 43 | D Below |
| #124 | Cole Young | Gage Jump | 43 | D Below |
| #141 | J. P. Crawford | Gage Jump | 41 | D Below |
| #143 | Jackson Merrill | Cesar Perdomo | 40 | D Below |
| #144 | Kevin McGonigle | Tanner Gordon | 40 | D Below |
| #145 | Vaughn Grissom | Andrew Alvarez | 40 | D Below |
| #153 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Cesar Perdomo | 39 | D Below |
| #162 | Alejandro Kirk | Kyle Bradish | 39 | D Below |
| #172 | Juan Brito | Shane Drohan | 37 | D Below |
| #195 | Shay Whitcomb | Michael King | 34 | D Below |
| #199 | Graham Pauley | Tyler Glasnow | 33 | D Below |
| #224 | Drew Gilbert | Michael King | 30 | D Below |
| #225 | Ezequiel Tovar | Andrew Sears | 30 | D Below |
| #232 | Justin Crawford | Tyler Mahle | 29 | D Below |
| #247 | Brett Bateman | Kyle Bradish | 24 | D Below |
| #250 | Drew Cavanaugh | Michael King | 22 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Carter Jensen, Ryan O'Hearn, William Contreras, Cody Bellinger, Isaac Paredes, Garrett Mitchell, Michael Busch, Brice Turang, Mookie Betts, Jared Young, Luis Torrens, Wyatt Langford, Carson Benge, Pedro Ramírez, Cole Young, J. P. Crawford, Jackson Merrill, Kevin McGonigle, Vaughn Grissom, Fernando Tatis Jr., Alejandro Kirk, Juan Brito, Shay Whitcomb, Graham Pauley, Drew Gilbert, Ezequiel Tovar, Justin Crawford, Brett Bateman, Drew Cavanaugh