MLB Home Run Predictions — September 13, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-13: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 13, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5 | Matt Olson | Andrew Painter | 66 | C+ Value |
| #8 | Ben Rice | Christian Scott | 65 | C+ Value |
| #16 | Zack Gelof | Bryce Miller | 61 | C+ Value |
| #22 | Randy Arozarena | Jacob Lopez | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #30 | Zach Neto | Riley Cornelio | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #33 | Kazuma Okamoto | Trevor Rogers | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #34 | Jake Bauers | Chase Burns | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #43 | Eugenio Suárez | Robert Gasser | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #55 | Corey Seager | Eduardo Rodriguez | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #74 | Lawrence Butler | Bryce Miller | 49 | D Below |
| #76 | Adael Amador | Jackson Jobe | 48 | D Below |
| #79 | Isaac Paredes | Freddy Peralta | 48 | D Below |
| #90 | Riley Greene | Gabriel Hughes | 46 | D Below |
| #91 | Nolan Arenado | Cal Quantrill | 46 | D Below |
| #93 | Jonathan Aranda | Hayden Wesneski | 46 | D Below |
| #99 | Spencer Torkelson | Gabriel Hughes | 45 | D Below |
| #112 | Moisés Ballesteros | Riley Cornelio | 44 | D Below |
| #126 | Richie Palacios | Hayden Wesneski | 43 | D Below |
| #129 | Miguel Amaya | Bubba Chandler | 43 | D Below |
| #138 | J.T. Realmuto | Grant Holmes | 42 | D Below |
| #141 | Austin Wells | Christian Scott | 41 | D Below |
| #148 | Trevor Larnach | Tanner Bibee | 41 | D Below |
| #151 | Jo Adell | Joe Ryan | 41 | D Below |
| #153 | Manny Machado | Logan Webb | 40 | D Below |
| #168 | Travis Bazzana | Joe Ryan | 39 | D Below |
| #174 | Gabriel Moreno | Cal Quantrill | 39 | D Below |
| #180 | George Springer | Trevor Rogers | 38 | D Below |
| #218 | Joey Ortiz | Chase Burns | 33 | D Below |
| #224 | Nick Fortes | Hayden Wesneski | 32 | D Below |
| #227 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Trevor Rogers | 32 | D Below |
| #236 | Caleb Durbin | Noah Cameron | 30 | D Below |
| #244 | Andrew Knizner | Nick Pivetta | 28 | D Below |
| #259 | Steven Kwan | Joe Ryan | 19 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Corey Seager, Lawrence Butler, Adael Amador, Isaac Paredes, Riley Greene, Nolan Arenado, Jonathan Aranda, Spencer Torkelson, Moisés Ballesteros, Richie Palacios, Miguel Amaya, J.T. Realmuto, Austin Wells, Trevor Larnach, Jo Adell, Manny Machado, Travis Bazzana, Gabriel Moreno, George Springer, Joey Ortiz, Nick Fortes, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Caleb Durbin, Andrew Knizner, Steven Kwan