MLB Home Run Predictions — September 14, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-14: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 14, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
20
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
4/15
Top-15 picks that homered
47.5 vs 42.9
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Reynaldo López | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #7 | Elly De La Cruz | Tarik Skubal | 62 | C+ Value |
| #10 | Aaron Judge | Dean Kremer | 61 | C+ Value |
| #13 | Manny Machado | Tomoyuki Sugano | 60 | C+ Value |
| #18 | Kazuma Okamoto | Troy Melton | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #25 | Miguel Vargas | Gavin Williams | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #34 | Fernando Tatís | Tomoyuki Sugano | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Teoscar Hernández | Nick Lodolo | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #47 | Kyle Tucker | Nick Lodolo | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #53 | Corbin Carroll | Sandy Alcantara | 48 | D Below |
| #61 | Josh Bell | Will Warren | 45 | D Below |
| #73 | Cal Raleigh | Reid Detmers | 43 | D Below |
| #75 | Gunnar Henderson | Jonah Tong | 43 | D Below |
| #88 | Cole Carrigg | Casey Mize | 41 | D Below |
| #98 | Austin Wells | Dean Kremer | 40 | D Below |
| #110 | A.J. Ewing | Brandon Young | 38 | D Below |
| #115 | José Caballero | Dean Kremer | 37 | D Below |
| #149 | J. P. Crawford | Reid Detmers | 30 | D Below |
| #159 | Javier Sanoja | AZ Bullpen Proxy | 31 | D Below |
| #160 | Jakob Marsee | AZ Bullpen Proxy | 29 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Corbin Carroll, Josh Bell, Cal Raleigh, Gunnar Henderson, Cole Carrigg, Austin Wells, A.J. Ewing, José Caballero, J. P. Crawford, Javier Sanoja, Jakob Marsee
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.